关键词: 人口城际流动, 流动倾向, 网络关注度, 珠三角

Abstract: This study analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution of intercity population flow propensity paths and the spatial difference in the population flow propensity intensity in the Pearl River Delta region. Internet search engine data were selected, and they were calculated by relevant evaluation models and analyzed with social network analysis method. With the rapid development of the information and communication technologies, information flow has been playing a crucial role in influencing the intercity population flow propensity. This study selected “recruitment in city j”, “map of city j” and “real estate in city j” (in Chinese) as three keywords to inquire the search index data which could reflect common demands people had before they made decisions to move to a new place. Mental propensities of people who would move could be uncovered well by these search indexes online. Thus, the intercity population flow propensity model based on Internet attention degree data was built up to evaluate the dynamic trends of population flow propensity among cities in urban agglomeration of the Pearl River Delta. The social network analysis method was used. It was found that the centrality degree ranking kept stable, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan and Dongguan ranked from the first to the fourth place in the region, that was in line with the realistic population flow features in 2011 and 2015. Therefore, the analysis method used in this study could reflect well the potential population flow trends. The total relative intensity of population inflow propensity had been introduced to the radiation model and the modified population flow radiation model was used to analyze the dynamic features of intercity population flow intensity, and the intercity population attraction index was established to evaluate the ranking of the capability of attracting population to move in. Results showed that Guangzhou and Shenzhen ranked the first two places and Dongguan and Foshan took the third and the fourth places followed by Huizhou, Zhongshan and Jiangmen, and Zhaoqing and Zhuhai ranked the last two places in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration. As for the spatial distribution of the intercity population flow propensity, people in the west bank cities of the Pearl River estuary had been attracted to move to Shenzhen in the east bank as the population flow propensity paths were strengthened gradually. The relative population flow propensity intensity results of Guangzhou-Foshan and Shenzhen-Dongguan were at a high level. Furthermore, Guangzhou and Shenzhen were in the first grade followed by Dongguan and Foshan in the second grade with respect to the total relative population flow propensity intensity. As the distributional difference of the total relative population flow propensity intensity showed, cities along the bank of the Pearl River estuary attracted more population flow propensity, and the spatial distribution showed an “n” form along the estuary. Moreover, the equalization of basic public employment service and more job opportunities should be created in the Pearl River Delta region.

Key words: intercity population flow, flow propensity, spatial characteristics, internet attention index, the Pearl River Delta region