1961―2015年中国不同强度降雨的
变化趋势和波动特征

doi:10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002941

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 采用1961―2015年中国535个降水站点数据，根据中国气象局颁布的降水强度等级划分标准，利用变化趋势和变异系数的方法，从降雨雨量和雨日特征2个方面对比研究了中国不同强度降水的空间格局。结果表明：1）1961―2015年中国不同强度降雨雨量和雨日变化趋势表现出不同的空间分异格局。其中小雨和中雨在东北、新疆北部、甘肃、青海和西藏地区以增加趋势为主，在西南和华南地区则以减少趋势为主。大雨在长江中下游以南地区以增加趋势为主，而西南地区以减少趋势为主。暴雨、大暴雨和总暴雨在东部和南部广大区域呈增加趋势，华北地区以减少趋势为主。特大暴雨仅在四川部分地区和东南沿海地区有增加趋势。2）1961―2015年中国不同强度降雨雨量和雨日呈现出不同程度的波动特征。小雨、中雨、大雨、暴雨、大暴雨和总降雨均在西北波动最大。特大暴雨波动最大的区域则主要分布在环渤海及其以南的广大地区。综上所述，中国的降雨在朝着极端化方向发展，提出适应、设防和减轻降水不利影响的应对方案势在必行。

关键词: 降雨分级, 波动特征, 空间格局, 中国

Abstract:

Since climatic condition is the important foundation for human subsistence and development, and the key factor in sustainable development of economy and society, the long-term trend change of different intensity precipitation, as one of the climatic elements, has been a global issue attracting great attention of politicians, scientists, governments, and the public alike throughout the world. In this research 535 stations’ meteorological data between 1961 and 2015 are from Daily Surface Meteorological Observation Data Sets of China provided by National Meteorological Information Center of China Meteorological Administration. According to the precipitation intensity grading standard issued by the China Meteorological Administration, rainfall events can be divided into six grades: light rainfall, moderate rainfall, heavy rainfall, storm rainfall, torrential rainfall and severe storm rainfall, in which the latter three grades constitute total storm rainfall, while all the six grades constitute total rainfall. Here starting from the annual rainfall amounts and rainfall days, we use tendency and fluctuation to diagnose different intensities’ rainfall amounts and days. The results show that, the tendencies of different intensities’ rainfall amounts and days show different spatial patterns. The light rainfall and moderate rainfall amounts are given priority to increasing trend in the northeast China, northern Xinjiang, Gansu, Qinghai and Tibet. In southwest and south China are given priority to decreasing trend. The heavy rainfall is given priority to increasing trend in the regions south of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, while decreasing trend in southwest China. And, storm rainfall, torrential rainfall and total storm rainfall show increasing trend in the east and south China with vast regions, while decreasing trend in north China. Extraordinary storm rainfall in parts of Sichuan and the southeast coastal regions have increasing trend, the increasing or decreasing trends in other parts of China are not obvious. The fluctuations of different intensities’ rainfall amounts and days show different spatial patterns. Light rainfall, moderate rainfall, heavy rainfall, storm rainfall, torrential rainfall and total rainfall have higher fluctuations in the northwest than in other regions. Extraordinary storm rainfall with high fluctuation is mainly distributed in the Bohai Sea rim and the vast regions south of the sea. To sum up, China’s rainfall is in development in the direction of extremalization. Putting forward some projects to response and reduce the adverse effect of precipitation extremalization is imperative.

Key words: rainfall grading, fluctuation, spatial pattern, China

孔锋，方建，吕丽莉，王铸，孟永昌，杨旭. 1961―2015年中国不同强度降雨的变化趋势和波动特征 [J]. 热带地理, 2017, 37(4): 473-483.

KONG Feng，FANG Jian，LYU Lili，WANG Zhu，MENG Yongchang，YANG Xu. Tendency and Fluctuation of Different Rainfall Intensities in China during 1961-2015[J]. TROPICAL GEOGRAPHY, 2017, 37(4): 473-483.

参考文献

ALEXANDER L V，ZHANG X，PETERSON T C，CAESAR J，GLEASON B，KLEIN Tank A M G，2012．Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation．Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres，111（D5）：1042-1063．

BAI H，FANG F，ZHANG J，LI D，2006．Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Spring Precipitation Days in Eastern Northwest China and Their Responses to the Intensity of Surface Heat-Field in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau．Journal of Meteorological Research，20（5）：40-49．

BENISTON M，STEPHENSON D B，CHRISTENSEN O B，FERRO C，FREI C，GOYETTE S，2007．Future extreme events in European climate：an exploration of regional climate model projections．Climatic Change，81（1）：71-95．

CHEN D，2009．Characteristics of Northwest China Rainfall Intensity in Recent 50 Years．Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences，33（5）：923-935．

CHEN X Y，SHANG K Z，WANG S G，YANG D B，2010．Analysis on the Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Precipitation under Different Intensities in China in Recent 50 Years．Arid Zone Research，7（5）：766-772．

陈烈庭，吴仁广，1994．中国东部的降水区划及备区旱涝变化的特征．大气科学，18（5）：587-595．[CHEN Lieting，WU Renguang，1994．Precipitation regionalization in and drought-flood variation in various regions．Atmospheric Science，18（5）：587-595．]

陈晓燕，尚可政，王式功，杨德保，2010．近50年中国不同强度降水日数时空变化特征．干旱区研究，7（5）：766-772．[CHEN Xiaoyan，SHANG Kezheng，WANG Shigong，YANG Debao，2010．Spatial and temporal characteristics variation of precipitation days of different intensities in China in recent 50 years．Arid Zone Research，27（5）：766-772．]

FENG L，ZHOU T，WU B，TIM L，2011．Projection of Future Precipitation Change over China with a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model．Advances in Atmospheric Sciences，28（2）：464-476．

何州杉月，杨林，2011．中国降水区划模糊聚类软划分法．气象科技，39（5）：582-586．[HE Zhoushanyue，YANG Lin，2011．Fuzzy clustering soft classification method of precipitation regionalization in China．Meteorological Science and Technology，39（5）：582-586．]

IPCC AR5．2013．Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2013 Fifth Assessment Report（AR5）．London：Cambridge University Press．

IPCC SREX．2012 Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation．London：Cambridge University Press．

JIN S，ZHANG B，SUN L，MA Z，ZHAO Y，HE X Q，2012．The Change Characteristics of Precipitation and Its Temporal Distribution Homogeneity in Hexi Region of China in Recent 50 Years．Resources Science，34（5）：811-818．

金炜昕，李维京，孙丞虎，左金清，2015．夏季中国中东部不同历时降水时空分布特征．气候与环境研究，20（4）：465-476．[JIN Weixin，LI Weijing，SUN Chenghu，ZUO Jinqing，2015．Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of different duration precipitation in the Middle East China in summer．Climate and Environmental Research，20（4）：465-476．]

LI Z，NIU F，FAN J，LIU Y，ROSENFELD D，2011．Long-term impacts of aerosols on the vertical development of clouds and precipitation．Nature Geoscience，4（12）：888-894．

LIU L，XU Z X，2016．Regionalization of precipitation and the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme precipitation in southwestern China．Natural Hazards，80（2）：1195-1211．

林云萍，赵春生，2009．中国地区不同强度降水的变化趋势．北京大学学报（自然科学版），45（6）：995-1002．[LIN Yunping，ZHAO Chunsheng．The trend of different intensity precipitation in China．Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis，45（6）：995-1002．]

陆龙骅，张德二，2013．中国年降水量的时空变化特征及其与东亚夏季风的关系．第四纪研究，33（1）：97-107．[LU Longhua，ZHANG De’er，2013．Temporal and spatial characteristics variation of annual precipitation in China and its relationship with the East Asian summer monsoon．Quaternary Research，33（1）：97-107．]

史培军，孔锋，方佳毅，2014．中国年代际暴雨时空变化格局．地理科学，29（11）：1281-1290．[SHI Peijun，KONG Feng，FANG Jiayi，2014．Temporal and spatial patterns variation of decadal rainstorm in China．Scientia Geographica Sinica，29（11）：1281-1290．]

史培军，孙劭，汪明，李宁，王静爱，金赟赟，顾孝天，尹卫霞，2014．中国气候变化区划（1961-2010年）．中国科学（地球科学），44（10）：2294-2306．[SHI Peijun，SUN Shao，WANG Ming，LI Ning，WANG Jing’ai，JIN Yunyun，GU Xiaotian，YIN Weixia，2014．Regionalization of climate change in China（1961-2010）．Chinese Science（Earth Science），44（10）：2294-2306．]

TRENBERTH K E，DAI A，RASMUSSEN R M，PARSONS D B，2010．The Changing Character of Precipitation．Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society，84（9）：1205-1217．

WEN L，CUI P，LI Y，WANG C，LIU Y，CHEN N，2010．The influence of sensible heat on monsoon precipitation in central and eastern Tibet．Meteorological Applications，17（4）：452-462．

王黎娟，陈璇，管兆勇，何金海，2009．我国南方洪涝暴雨期西太平洋副高短期位置变异的特点及成因．大气科学，33（5）：1047- 1057．[WANG Lijuan，CHEN Xuan，GUAN Zhaoyong，HE Jinhai，2009．Short-term position variation characteristics and causes of West Pacific subtropical high during rainstorm flood in South China．Atmospheric Science，33（5）：1047-1057．]

王小玲，翟盘茂，2008．1957―2004年中国不同强度级别降水的变化趋势特征．热带气象学报，24（5）：459-466．[WANG Xiaoling，ZHAI Panmao，2008．Trend characteristics of different intensity precipitation in China from 1957 to 2004．Journal of Tropical Meteorology，24（5）：459-466．]

ZHAI P，SUN A，REN F，LIU X，GAO B，ZHANG Q，1999．Changes of climate extremes in China．Climatic Change，42（1）：203-218．

ZHAI P，ZHANG X，WAN H，PAN X，2005．Trends in Total Precipitation and Frequency of Daily Precipitation Extremes over China．Journal of Climate，18（7）：1096-1108．

翟盘茂，刘静，2012．气候变暖背景下的极端天气气候事件与防灾减灾．中国工程科学，14（9）：55-63．[ZHAI Panmao，LIU Jing，2012．Extreme weather and climate events and disaster prevention and mitigation under the background of climate warming．China Engineering Science，14（9）：55-63．]

[1]	唐锦玥, 何益珺, 塔娜. 基于POI数据的上海市餐饮业空间分布特征及影响因素[J]. 热带地理, 2020, 40(6): 1015-1025.
[2]	闵开付, 程亮, 周晓, 夏南, 李宁, 李满春. 南沙他国侵占岛礁战略价值及空间格局评价[J]. 热带地理, 2020, 40(4): 684-693.
[3]	李振发, 林文盛, 叶雅玲, 贺灿飞. 中国金融包容区域差异：地理包容能否带动业务包容？[J]. 热带地理, 2020, 40(4): 709-720.
[4]	金万富, 何广静, 陈乐. 中国高尔夫球场时空演变、影响因素和扩散模式[J]. 热带地理, 2020, 40(3): 515-524.
[5]	王辉, 延军平, 彭邦文, 刘冬梅, 连丽娟. 中国中等职业教育空间集聚及其影响因素[J]. 热带地理, 2020, 40(3): 525-538.
[6]	庄良, 田娜, 赵彪. 上海市博物馆时空演变特征及其影响因素[J]. 热带地理, 2020, 40(3): 539-550.
[7]	刘逸, 李源, 黎卓灵, 韩芳菲. 新冠肺炎疫情在广东省的扩散特征[J]. 热带地理, 2020, 40(3): 367-374.
[8]	杜方叶, 王姣娥, 王涵. 新冠疫情对中国国际航空网络连通性的影响及空间差异[J]. 热带地理, 2020, 40(3): 386-395.
[9]	张凯煌, 千庆兰. 新冠疫情对中国经济的影响及政策讨论[J]. 热带地理, 2020, 40(3): 396-407.
[10]	陈依曼, 李立勋, 符天蓝. 中国城市创新能力及其影响因素的空间分异——基于GWR模型的实证[J]. 热带地理, 2020, 40(2): 323-334.
[11]	林丹淳, 谭敏, 刘凯, 柳林, 朱远辉. 代表性人口空间分布数据集的精度评价——以2010年广东省为例[J]. 热带地理, 2020, 40(2): 346-356.
[12]	李珊, 冯攀, 宋雨儒, 秦小珍, 李郇. 2000—2011年产品空间网络视角下中国出口演化及其机制[J]. 热带地理, 2020, 40(1): 40-50.
[13]	陈艳华, 张虹鸥, 黄耿志, 叶玉瑶, 吴旗韬. 中国-老挝境外经贸合作区的发展模式与启示——以万象赛色塔综合开发区为例[J]. 热带地理, 2019, 39(6): 844-854.
[14]	许阳贵, 刘云刚. 中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易及其影响因素[J]. 热带地理, 2019, 39(6): 855-868.
[15]	胡雪峰, 王兴平, 赵四东. 越南工业区空间格局及产业发展特征[J]. 热带地理, 2019, 39(6): 889-900.