热带地理

热带地理 ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (1): 48-60.doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002962

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中等排放情景下中国未来不同强度降雨对总降雨贡献的区域差异（2006―2100年）

孔 锋1,2,3，王一飞1b，方 建4，吕丽莉1，张黎黎1b，王卓妮1b   

  1. （1．中国气象局 a．发展研究中心；b．气象干部培训学院，北京 100081；2．北京师范大学 地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室， 北京 100875；3．民政部/教育部 减灾与应急管理研究院，北京 100875；4．武汉大学 资源与环境科学学院，武汉 430079）
  • 出版日期:2018-01-05 发布日期:2018-01-05
  • 作者简介:孔锋（1986―），男，山西临汾人，博士，助理研究员，主要研究方向为气候变化风险、极端降水诊断及其归因研究、自然灾害与环境演变，（E-mail）kongfeng0824@foxmail.com
  • 基金资助:
    中亚大气科学研究基金“中亚地区暴雨时空变化及其影响因素诊断”（CAAS201804）；国家自然科学基金面上项目“北京城市热岛效应与强降水事件的关系研究”（41775078）；中国气象局气象软科学自主项目“一带一路”综合气象灾害风险评估及其战略对策研究（2018[23]）

Projected Regional Difference of the Rainfall with Different Intensities and Their Contribution to Total Rainfall under the RCP6.0 Scenario in China during 2006-2100

KONG Feng1,2,3，WANG Yifei1b，FANG Jian4，LYU Lili1，ZHANG Lili1b，WANG Zhuoni1b   

  1. （1．a．Research Center for Strategic Development；b．China Meteorological Administration Training Center，China Meteorological Administration，Beijing 100081，China；2．State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology，Beijing Normal University，Beijing 100875，China；3．Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management，Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education，Beijing 100875，China； 4．School of Resources and Environmental Science，Wuhan University，Wuhan 430079，China）
  • Online:2018-01-05 Published:2018-01-05

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摘要： 采用RCP6.0中等排放情景下2006―2100年WRF 30 km×30 km日值降雨数据，根据中国气象局颁布的降雨强度等级划分标准，探究了中国不同强度降雨及其对总降雨贡献的变化趋势的空间差异特征。结果表明：1）在雨量上，中等排放情景下2006―2100年中国不同强度降雨呈现出不同的空间分异格局。小雨和中雨自东北向西南呈“高―低―高”的三块式空间分布特征；大雨、暴雨、大暴雨和总暴雨均呈“东南高，西北低”的分异格局；特大暴雨仅东南沿海的部分地区分布较多；总降雨呈“南方高，北方次之，西北低”的空间分异格局。2）在雨量贡献率上，强降雨对总降雨的贡献率普遍存在“东南高，西北低”特征，而弱降雨对总降雨的贡献率恰恰相反；不同强度暴雨对总暴雨的贡献率也有类似分布特征。3）在雨量变化趋势上，中国不同强度降雨变化趋势呈现出不同的空间分异格局，但强降雨呈增加趋势的区域显著多于呈减少趋势的区域。4）在雨量贡献率变化趋势上，强（弱）降雨对总降雨的贡献率呈增加（减少）趋势的区域占主导，强降雨对总降雨的贡献率呈增加趋势的地区明显多于弱降雨。5）在不同强度暴雨对总暴雨贡献率的变化趋势上，大暴雨和特大暴雨对总暴雨的贡献率呈增加趋势的区域明显多于暴雨。预估结果表明，中国东部降雨在朝着极端化方向发展。

关键词: RCP6.0, 变化趋势, 降雨贡献率, 空间格局, 区域差异, 中国

Abstract: Climatic condition is the important foundation for human subsistence and development and the key factor in sustainable development of economy and society. As one of the climatic elements, different intensity precipitation’s long-term trend change has been a global issue attracting great attentions of politicians, scientists, governments, and the public alike throughout the world. Here we use RCP6.0 emission scenarios WRF 30 km × 30 km daily precipitation data from 2006 to 2100, according to the rainfall intensity grading standards issue by China Meteorological Administration to diagnose different intensity rainfall and its contribution rate to the total rainfall around the overall and seven regions’ trend in China. The results show that: different intensity rainfall would show a different pattern of spatial differentiation under RCP6.0 emission scenarios from 2006 to 2100 in China. Light rainfall and moderate rainfall would have the distribution characteristics of “High - Low - High” from the northeast to the southwest in China. Heavy rainfall, storm rainfall, heavy storm rainfall and total storm rainfall would present the spatial pattern of “High in the Southeast - Low in the Northwest”. Super heavy storm rainfall would be only distributed in the southeast coastal areas. Total rainfall would present a spatial differentiation pattern of “High in the South - Moderate in the North - Low in the Northwest”. The contribution rate of heavy intensity rainfall to the total rainfall would show the characteristic of “High in the Southeast - Low in the Northwest”, while the contribution rate of light intensity rainfall to the total rainfall would be just the opposite. The contribution rate of different intensity storm rainfall to the total storm rainfall would present similar distribution characteristics. As for the change trend of rainfall, the trend of different intensity rainfall in China would show different spatial patterns, but the area of heavy intensity rainfall with increasing trend would be significantly more than that of decreasing trend. As for the change trend of rainfall contribution rate of heavy (light) intensity rainfall to total rainfall, the contribution rate with increasing (decreasing) trend would be dominated. The contribution rate of heavy intensity rainfall to the total rainfall with increasing trend would be more obviously than that of light intensity rainfall with increasing trend. As for the change trend of the contribution rate of different intensity storm rainfall to total storm rainfall, the contribution rate of heavy intensity storm rainfall with increasing trend to total storm rainfall would be more obvious than that of light intensity storm rainfall with increasing trend. Prediction results show that the precipitation in Eastern China would develop in the direction of extremalization.

Key words: RCP6.0, trend, rainfall contribution rate, spatial pattern, regional differences, China