关键词: 政治性民意集团, 国内冲突, 行为主体, 利益博弈, 冲突致因, 缅甸

Abstract:

As an important neighboring country of China and an important node country along the Belt and Road Initiative, the internal political change in Myanmar will endanger the border security of China. As a result, furthering practical development of the community of shared interests as well as the community of a shared future between China and the surrounding countries will be influenced. First, in this study, we an analytical framework in which domestic political actors influence the state’s political situation. Then, from perspectives of “public opinion, “politics of public opinion,” and “political public opinion” this paper classifies the historical events of competition and cooperation among the political actors in Myanmar by analyzing historical documents. We divide the domestic political forces of Myanmar into six major political public opinion cliques according to features such as the composition subject and interests demand and behavior style. Then, we analyze the space-time environment of the political public opinion cliques forming process and discuss the process and mechanism of the formation of political public opinion cliques. By analyzing the behavior of political public opinion cliques, we consider that six major political public opinion cliques have been formed that are driven by individual interests and play chess with each other in the context of constitutional crisis and ethnic construction under the concepts of “one religion, one language, and one race.” Additionally, we consider that the geographical division of ethnic minorities and the Bamar are divided in the geographical environment of the spatial distribution caused by the topography of Myanmar territory. These public opinion cliques mainly include a military-political public opinion clique, a public opinion clique pursuing western-style democracy, an ethnic clique pursuing autonomy or independence, a public opinion clique with exclusivism by outside forces, an extremely xenophobic Buddhist public opinion clique, and a religious exclusionary (mostly Muslim) opinion clique. These political public opinion cliques have become the main political actors in Myanmar by signing agreements with equal consultation, inducing compromise with tactics, and forcing acceptance with powerful strikes. The essence of the conflict of political public opinion cliques is that their interests exceed national interests, and the game of political public opinion cliques has a far-reaching impact on the political situation of Myanmar, which is the main cause of the long-term conflict in Myanmar. The research on the issue of democracy and the national religious problems from the view of “public opinion” and “politics of public opinion” presented in this dissertation are tentative and explorative. In particular, the findings from this study are expected to offer a new perspective and reference for political public opinion events in neighboring countries such as political instability in Thailand and the questions about some people's opposition to China in the Philippines.

Key words: political public opinion cliques, internal conflict, actant, interest game, cause of conflict, Myanmar