热带地理

热带地理 ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (6): 855-868.doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003201

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易及其影响因素

许阳贵1, 刘云刚2()   

  1. 1. 中山大学 地理科学与规划学院,广州 510275
    2. 华南师范大学 地理科学学院,广州 510631
  • 收稿日期:2019-09-23 修回日期:2019-11-21 出版日期:2019-11-10 发布日期:2019-12-26
  • 通讯作者: 刘云刚 E-mail:ygliu@scnu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:许阳贵（1993—）,男,福建泉州人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为地缘政治、社会地图与社会分区,（E-mail）houdalijia@163.com;
  • 基金资助:
    珠江三角洲的日资集聚与日本人移民社会的空间形成(41571130);面向社会管理的政治地理学理论与实证研究(41271165)

Foreign Trade and Its Influencing Factors between China and Countries along “the Belt and Road” Route

Xu Yanggui1, Liu Yungang2()   

  1. 1. School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
    2. School of Geography, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, China
  • Received:2019-09-23 Revised:2019-11-21 Online:2019-11-10 Published:2019-12-26
  • Contact: Liu Yungang E-mail:ygliu@scnu.edu.cn

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摘要：

利用拓展贸易引力模型,借助Eviews等工具分析了影响中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易规模的因素,以及中国对外直接投资的滞后性对双边贸易的影响。结果表明：1）中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易规模受到经济发展水平、市场规模、政治制度、贸易畅通性、便利性、中国对外直接投资、民间文化交流紧密度的影响;2）中国对外直接投资对于带动中国与“一带一路”沿线国家间的贸易规模具有正向作用,但其效应具有一定滞后性;3）中国对外直接投资对于带动中国与不同“一带一路”沿线国家贸易规模的引力大小不同,可分为投资带动力巨大型、投资带动型、投资一般型、投资带动力不足型4种类型,中国与东南亚、西亚和撒哈拉以南的非洲国家贸易规模受中国对外直接投资带动作用较强。

关键词: “一带一路”, 贸易, 对外直接投资, 贸易引力模型, 中国, “一带一路”沿线国家

Abstract:

This study explores the trade pattern and influencing factors between China and countries along “ the Belt and Road” route using the gravity model of trade. With the implementation of China’s “the Belt and Road” initiative, the growing trade between China and countries along “the Belt and Road” route gradually became the principal measured standard of the achievements of the “the Belt and Road” initiative and an essential sign of implementing the concept of “the Belt and Road” initiative. Based on the five types of connectivity of “the Belt and Road” initiative, including connectivity of policy, infrastructure, trade, finance, and people, we unravel the factors influencing the trade between China and countries along “the Belt and Road” route and conduct a quantitative analysis of the factors. This study found that the total trade volume in the total import and export between China and countries along “the Belt and Road” route is influenced by the level of economic development, the size of each country’s market, the political system, accessibility and convenience of trade, and China’s foreign direct investment and non-governmental exchange and cooperation. Among these, China’s foreign direct investment shows hysteresis in promoting trade development between China and countries along “the Belt and Road” route. Because of each country’s different economic policies, trade policies, and international relations, the delay period between China’s foreign direct investment and trade development could differ. China’s foreign direct investment in countries along “the Belt and Road” route, however, has the most positive effect two years after the investment flowing into the host country. This study also found that China’s foreign direct investment has various effects on the total trade volume in the total import and export between China and countries along “the Belt and Road” route. They can be divided into four types: strong driving, driving, general, and insufficient driving. The countries in the strong driving type and driving type are in Southeast Asia, western Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. This study enriches the domestic empirical research on the influencing factors of foreign trade between China and countries along “the Belt and Road” route, helps to improve the efficiency of Chinese enterprises’ overseas investment, and contributes to promoting the communication on economics and trade between China and countries along “the Belt and Road” route. This study also puts forward the view that China’s foreign direct investment shows hysteresis in promoting trade development. Future research could focus on the differences of the delay period in different industries between China’s foreign direct investment and the economic and trade development in the host country, exploring ways to shorten the delay period from the policy perspective and better promote the implementation of “the Belt and Road” initiative.

Key words: “the Belt and Road”, trade, foreign direct investment, the gravity model of trade, China, countries along “ the Belt and Road”

中图分类号: 

  • F125