可持续发展视角下的南海岛礁评估分类

doi:10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003511

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

南海岛礁是南海海上合作和海洋治理的重要支点。南海岛礁的可持续发展是实现南海域内协同发展、合作治理的基石。为了多维度诊断南海岛礁可持续发展的现状，辅助岛礁科学规划，提升海洋治理能力，文章基于模糊层次分析法、熵权法与组合求权方法形成主-客观耦合求权的南海岛礁可持续发展评价方法，以永兴岛、赵述岛、南薰礁、美济礁、渚碧礁、永暑礁等南海岛礁为例，探究其可持续发展的潜力。结果表明，6个岛礁的可持续发展价值量排序为：永兴岛＞永暑礁＞美济礁＞渚碧礁＞赵述岛＞南薰礁。6个岛礁均具备可持续发展的潜力，但各个岛礁的发展状态差异很大，各维度的发展程度各不相同。综合评价结果和岛礁实地状况，分析南海岛礁发展的优势领域与薄弱环节，为南海岛礁规划了区域性中心、综合保障、特色产业、国防维权的发展方向。建议永兴岛和永暑礁发展为区域性现代化与智能化的绿色示范岛礁；美济礁发展海洋产业与后勤保障，完善海上交通设施建设，提供国际公共产品与服务；赵述岛与渚碧礁以渔业发展为中心，注重产业结构与布局规划，形成特色产业模式；南薰礁提升安全维护能力，完善岛礁建设，提升国防维权功能。

关键词: 可持续发展, 南海岛礁, 综合评价, 社会治理, 南海海洋治理

Abstract:

Islands and reefs in the South China Sea (SCSIRs) are important components of maritime cooperation and ocean governance in the South China Sea (SCS), providing land conditions for a variety of maritime cooperation. The sustainable development of SCSIRs is a cornerstone of coordinated development and cooperative governance in the SCS. As most SCSIRs are coral reefs with a fragile ecological environment and simplified development models, this study aims to quantitatively and multi-dimensionally explore the current status of their sustainable development to add scientific development planning and improve China's own ocean governance capabilities. The scientific assessment of island and reef development is the inevitable choice for sustainable development of SCSIRs. Based on the method of the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, Entropy Weight Method, and combined weight, a subject-objective weight coupling evaluation method for the sustainable development of SCSIRs was developed that can reflect their development status relatively objectively and comprehensively. In addition, the Yongxing Dao (the Yongxing Island), the Zhaoshu Dao (the Zhaoshu Island), the Nanxun Jiao (the Gaven Reef), the Meiji Jiao (the Mischief Reef), the Zhubi Jiao (the Subi Reef), and the Yongshu Jiao (the Fiery Cross Reef) were used as case studies to explore the potential of sustainable development of SCSIRs. The results showed that all six SCSIRs had the potential for sustainable development, and the development focus of the SCSIRs was mainly on the three levels of society, resources, and strategy. The ranking of the sustainable development value of the six islands and reefs is Yongxing Dao > Yongshu Jiao > Meiji Jiao > Zhubi Jiao > Zhaoshu Dao > Nanxun Jiao, among which Yongxing Dao has the highest level of sustainable development (64.19) and a clear advantage in terms of social development and geographical location, while Nanxun Jiaohas the lowest level of sustainable development (38.84) due to harsh weather conditions and fragile ecological environment, leading to difficult circumstances when building and living on the reef. Based on the evaluation results and the actual situation, this study comprehensively analyzes the strengths and weaknesses in the development of SCSIRs and proposes the development of regional centers, comprehensive guarantees, characteristic industries, and national defense and rights safeguarding for the development of SCSIRs. Moreover, the study distinguishes the types of islands and reefs along four dimensions and provides social governance strategies and recommendations regarding resource utilization, infrastructure, and maritime cooperation. In these cases, this study can facilitate the formation of high-quality and high-efficiency application pilots for SCSIRs and promote their sustainable development. Thus, it furthers the construction of a modern system for the social governance of SCSIRs, advances the development of the blue economy in the SCS region, provides security for the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative and maritime cooperation, and makes China a strong promoter in the construction of a community of common destiny in the SCS.

Key words: sustainable development, Islands and reefs in the South China Sea (SCSIRs), comprehensive assessment, social governance, ocean governance in the South China Sea (SCS)

中图分类号:

陈韶阳, 肖利, 刘娜, 龚彦维, 肖云. 可持续发展视角下的南海岛礁评估分类[J]. 热带地理, 2022, 42(7): 1039-1049.

Shaoyang Chen, Li Xiao, Na Liu, Yanwei Gong, Yun Xiao. Classificatory Assessment of Islands and Reefs in the South China Sea from the Perspective of Sustainable Development[J]. Tropical Geography, 2022, 42(7): 1039-1049.

图/表 6

图1

图2

表1

南海岛礁可持续发展评价指标体系与权重结果

目标层A	系统层B	指标层 C	因子类别	FAHP	EWM	组合权重
自然A1 0.102 1	地理条件B1	岛礁面积C1	+↑	0.017 4	0.015 5	0.018 7
		岛礁地理位置C2	+↑	0.030 7	0.014 7	0.024 2
		岸线长度C3	+↑	0.010 0	0.014 5	0.013 7
		最高高程C4	+↑	0.009 8	0.013 2	0.013 0
	气候条件B2	平均年降水量C5	ϒ	0.003 0	0.040 2	0.012 5
		年平均气温C6	ϒ	0.003 1	0.019 8	0.008 9
		自然灾害C7	+↓	0.007 8	0.012 1	0.011 1
经济A2 0.110 6	产业建设B3	工业设施C8	⊙	0.005 5	0.014 7	0.010 3
		渔业养殖C9	⊙	0.008 6	0.010 8	0.010 9
		旅游业发展C10	+↑	0.007 6	0.028 1	0.016 6
						（转下页）
	设施建设B4	港口建设C11	+↑	0.002 2	0.021 0	0.007 8
	设施建设B4	机场建设C12	+↑	0.025 5	0.020 9	0.026 3
	土地B5	土地利用C13	ϒ	0.027 2	0.010 1	0.018 9
	食品B6	食品供应C14	⊙	0.029 2	0.010 4	0.019 8
社会A3 0.170 5	社区建设B7	民事行政管理C15	+↑	0.006 8	0.027 0	0.015 4
		岛上交通条件C16	+↑	0.006 4	0.011 6	0.009 8
		住房情况C17	+↑	0.004 4	0.016 0	0.009 6
		教育C18	+↑	0.004 1	0.021 0	0.010 6
		医疗C19	+↑	0.004 8	0.019 1	0.010 9
		社会福利C20	⊙	0.003 6	0.012 9	0.007 8
	公共设施B8	体育场数量C21	+↑	0.001 8	0.017 5	0.006 4
		体育场规模C22	+↑	0.010 2	0.016 9	0.014 9
		生活服务场所C23	⊙	0.020 2	0.011 2	0.017 1
	科研建设B9	实验基地规模C24	⊙	0.004 1	0.014 2	0.008 7
	科研建设B9	观测站建设C25	+↑	0.014 8	0.0130	0.015 8
	海上联合搜救B10	海上搜救组织C26	+↑	0.005 9	0.028 1	0.014 7
	海上联合搜救B10	海上搜救能力C27	-↑	0.040 9	0.015 7	0.028 8
资源A4 0.207 8	海岛资源B11	植被覆盖面积C28	+↑	0.018 0	0.009 6	0.014 9
		鸟粪磷矿C29	⊙	0.009 7	0.014 5	0.013 6
		底栖生物多样性C30	+↑	0.008 6	0.028 1	0.017 7
	渔业资源B12	鱼类物种C31	+↑	0.009 4	0.013 1	0.012 7
	渔业资源B12	渔场建设C32	+↑	0.028 6	0.021 5	0.028 3
	淡水资源B13	淡水处理厂C33	+↑	0.017 4	0.014 4	0.018 0
		岛上水库C34	+↑	0.013 4	0.017 6	0.017 6
		淡水透镜体潜质C35	+↑	0.008 1	0.028 1	0.017 2
	矿产资源B14	矿产丰富度C36	⊙	0.028 1	0.021 4	0.027 9
	油气资源B15	油气田分布C37	-↑	0.034 2	0.012 4	0.023 5
	可再生能源B16	可再生能源利用程度C38	⊙	0.017 6	0.011 8	0.016 4
生态A5 0.097 0	水质B17	悬浮物含量C39	-↑	0.031 6	0.010 6	0.020 9
	水质B17	周边叶绿素含量C40	+↑	0.031 6	0.017 5	0.026 8
	污水排放B18	生活污水排放C41	⊙	0.016 7	0.013 7	0.017 2
	污水排放B18	产业废水排放C42	⊙	0.074 3	0.010 7	0.032 1
文化A6 0.082 1	历史文化B19	历史文化遗产数量C43	+↑	0.034 6	0.015 3	0.026 2
	历史文化B19	历史文化遗产价值C44	⊙	0.053 4	0.016 6	0.034 0
	民俗文化B20	非物质文化遗产C45	+↑	0.013 1	0.028 1	0.021 9
战略A7 0.230 1	辐射能力B21	辐射岛礁数量C46	+↑	0.046 0	0.010 5	0.025 1
	交通区位B22	船舶交通密度C47	⊙	0.014 6	0.012 7	0.015 5
	交通区位B22	与航道距离C48	-↑	0.033 2	0.011 8	0.022 6
	锚地条件B23	锚地水深C49	+↑	0.011 8	0.016 3	0.015 8
	锚地条件B23	锚地地质C50	⊙	0.025 8	0.018 0	0.024 5
	航行条件B24	周边航线数量C51	+↑	0.003 6	0.010 3	0.007 0
		航道平均水深C52	+↑	0.000 8	0.020 9	0.004 7
		灯塔数量C53	+↑	0.001 0	0.015 6	0.004 4
		码头吨位C54	+↑	0.003 8	0.014 1	0.008 3
		港池面积C55	+↑	0.003 9	0.017 3	0.009 3
		避风条件C56	⊙	0.004 8	0.013 1	0.009 0
	军事建设B25	军事用地占比C57	+↑	0.013 5	0.013 2	0.015 2
	军事建设B25	军用设施C58	⊙	0.030 1	0.015 6	0.024 7
	周边安全形势B26	敌占岛礁数量C59	-↑	0.014 7	0.017 5	0.018 2
	周边安全形势B26	敌占岛礁综合能力值C60	⊙	0.028 5	0.018 0	0.025 8

表1

表2

表3

定性因子的判断标准与评价等级的对应情况

指标	评价等级
指标	低（1~2分）	较低（3~4分）	中（5~6分）	较高（7~8分）	高（9~10分）
工业设施C8	无工业设施	海水淡化厂等工业设施少	海水淡化厂等工业设施较少	海水淡化厂等工业设施较多	海水淡化厂等工业设施多
渔业养殖C9	气候恶劣，渔业资源较少	气候适宜，渔业资源丰富	渔业资源丰富，渔民打渔为生	建有渔业基地	渔业产业化，生产规模大
食品供应C14	生态环境差，暂不适宜农牧作业	有一定的养殖基础	农牧作业设施较齐全	农牧作业设施较齐全，有一定的现代化生产条件	农牧作业设施齐全，现代化水平高
社会福利C20	岛礁上生活保障少	岛礁上生活保障较少	岛礁上有一定的生活保障	岛礁上形成居民社区	岛礁上形成居民社区，福利机制完善
生活服务场所C23	暂无超市、电影院等服务场所	存在个别超市、电影院等服务场所	超市、电影院等服务场所较少	超市、电影院等服务场所较齐全	超市、电影院等服务场所齐全
实验基地规模C24	无实验基地	实验基地数量少	实验基地数量较少	实验基地数量较多	实验基地数量多
鸟粪磷矿C29	生物气候条件差，土壤含磷量少	生物气候条件较差，土壤含磷量较少	生物气候条件一般，土壤含磷量一般	生物气候条件较好，土壤含磷量较多	生物气候条件好，土壤含磷量多
矿产丰富度C36	矿产资源贫乏	矿产资源较少	矿产资源欠丰富	矿产资源较丰富	矿产资源丰富
可再生能源利用程度C38	利用程度低	利用程度较低	利用程度一般	利用程度较高	利用程度高
生活污水排放C41	排放少	排放较少	排放一般	排放较多	排放多
产业废水排放C42	排放少	排放较少	排放一般	排放较多	排放多
历史文化遗产价值C44	时间近、规模小	时间较近、规模较小	时间较久远、规模一般	时间较久远、规模较大	时间久远、规模大
船舶交通密度C47	船舶来往数量少，交通密度小	船舶来往数量较少，交通密度较小	船舶来往数量一般，交通密度一般	船舶来往数量较多，交通密度较大	船舶来往数量多，交通密度大
锚地地质C50	差	较差	中	良	优
避风条件C56	较弱	弱	中	较强	强
军用设施C58	礁堡、雷达等设施少	礁堡、雷达等设施较少	礁堡、雷达等设施一般	礁堡、雷达等设施较多	礁堡、雷达等设施多
敌占岛礁综合能力值C60	无居民居住；派遣巡航艇巡航	有居民居住；派遣巡航艇巡航	有驻守部队；有居民居住；派遣巡航艇巡航	周边岛礁为军事基地；军用设施布设较严密；有驻守部队；有居民居住；派遣巡航艇巡航	周边岛礁为军事基地；军用设施布设严密；有驻守部队；有居民居住；派遣巡航艇巡航

表3

表4

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来源	确定方法	数据名称
遥感影像（LocaSpace Viewer）	人工目视解译与测量	岛礁面积、岛礁地理位置、岸线长度、港口建设、机场建设、土地利用、岛上交通条件、住房情况、体育场数量、体育场规模、海上搜救能力、植被覆盖面积、岛上水库、辐射岛礁数量、港池面积、军事用地占比
	定性评价	军用设施
	数量统计	敌占岛礁数量
文献资料	资料数值	最高高程（高俊国等，2009）、底栖生物多样性（李新正等，2002）、鱼类物种（李媛洁，2020）
	定性评价	鸟粪磷矿（中国科学院南京土壤研究所考察组，1976）、矿产丰富度（杨慧宁等，2002）
	数量统计	淡水透镜体潜质（Sheng et al., 2020）
	定量测量	与航道距离（Wang et al., 2014）、周边航线数量（Wang et al., 2014）
官方新闻^1）	定性评价	工业设施、渔业养殖、食品供应、社会福利、生活服务场所、实验基地规模、可再生能源利用程度、生活污水排放、产业废水排放、历史文化遗产价值、避风条件、敌占岛礁综合能力值
	数量统计	旅游业发展、民事行政管理、教育、医疗、观测站建设、海上搜救组织、渔场建设、淡水处理厂、历史文化遗产数量、非物质文化遗产
	资料数值	码头吨位
专题图集^2）	定量测量	油气田分布
数据库产品/网站	平均数值	平均年降水量^3）、年平均气温^4）、悬浮物含量^5）、周边叶绿素含量^5）、锚地水深^6）、航道平均水深^6）
	数量统计	自然灾害^7）、灯塔数量^6）
	定性评价	锚地地质^6）、船舶交通密度^8）

维度	永兴岛	赵述岛	南薰礁	美济礁	渚碧礁	永暑礁
价值量	64.19	47.07	38.84	49.01	47.84	52.80
自然A1	5.41	4.12	3.84	5.84	5.41	5.12
经济A2	9.56	5.07	2.78	6.70	7.43	6.75
社会A3	13.02	8.67	5.93	9.07	8.11	9.25
资源A4	15.01	11.82	8.27	9.27	8.98	12.88
生态A5	-0.97	0.40	2.23	1.99	1.98	1.82
文化A6	6.85	5.17	2.30	1.36	1.36	1.96
战略A7	15.32	11.81	13.49	14.78	14.55	15.02

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