• 论文 •

### 中国人口死亡率空间差异特征

1. （曲靖师范学院 法律与公共管理学院，云南 曲靖 655011）
• 出版日期:2018-03-05 发布日期:2018-03-05
• 作者简介:梁海艳（1986―），男，云南曲靖人，讲师，博士，地理学博士后，主要研究方向为人口与社会发展，（E-mail）lhy2005042234@163.com。
• 基金资助:
017年国家社会科学基金西部项目《中越边境非法跨境通婚对人口安全影响研究》（17XRK005）；2016年度云南省教育厅科学研究基金资助性项目《滇桂边境地区跨境通婚对人口安全的影响研究》（2016ZZX209）；曲靖师范学院校级科研项目《云南边境地区流动人口族际关系演变及其调试研究》（2016QN012）

### Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Death Rate in China

LIANG Haiyan

1. （Institute of Law and Public Administration，Qujing Normal University，Qujing 655011，China）
• Online:2018-03-05 Published:2018-03-05

Abstract: The paper makes use of the 5th and 6th census data published by the National Bureau of Statistics. The results showed that there was a significant regional difference between standardized death rate (ASCDR) and crude death rate (CDR). The standardized mortality differed in different regions, and even opposite direction of change occurred. According to the standard population age structure, the mortality changes of 31 regions in China were calculated. The standardized death rate in all regions decreased from 2000 to 2010, which was in full agreement with the statistical results of average life expectancy of population. Comparisons between any two regions might have conflicting conclusions. Therefore, the selection of the age structure of the standard population would be the key step of the direct standardization method. In the process of the specific standardized calculation, it is generally selected as the standard of the average age of a population or population. Because this article compares two population structures, so choosing the average of these two population structures as the standard structure would be more appropriate. Its basic logic is, if the correlation coefficient between the two is higher, in particular, if the correlation coefficient reaches a critical value of 1:00, the crude death rate can be compared directly with the standardized mortality, which shows that the population age structure has a very weak effect on mortality. Conversely, the lower the correlation coefficient between the two is, the less the crude death rate will be used instead of standardized mortality to make regional or sequential comparisons, and the risk of making mistakes will be high, indicating that the population age structure has a significant impact on mortality. This paper uses the direct standardization method to analyze the regional differences and temporal variation characteristics of the mortality levels of 5th and 6th census data in China. In fact, there are many similar statistical indicators in demography, such as the birth rate, the fertility rate and other indicators will be affected by the population age structure, even the gender structure. In order to eliminate the impact of population structure on the rate indicators, in the specific analysis, it is usually necessary to use the standardized method to deal with it. The purpose of this is only to eliminate the impact of the age structure of the population in order to compare the level of rate indicators in different regions or different periods. In other words, the standardized rate indicators have only relative meanings, but not absolute, only meaningful when comparisons are made, and a single standardized rate indicator does not indicate any problem, since it is only a result of a hypothetical condition, The age-non-rate index is the real level of reality. In addition, it is also important to note that the standardized rate indicators do not necessarily eliminate the impact of the age structure of the population. Therefore, in the process of standardization, how to choose a suitable standard population age structure is a very important link, the selection of population standards directly affects the results of the calculation and even the judgment of the conclusion. Different criteria can be used to draw different conclusions.