• 论文 •

### 产业多样化、创新与经济韧性 ——基于后危机时期珠三角的实证

1. （1. 广州地理研究所，广州 510070；2. 广东省地理空间信息技术与应用公共实验室，广州 510070；3. 广州城市职业学院，广州 510405）
• 出版日期:2019-03-05 发布日期:2019-03-05
• 作者简介:杜志威（1987—），男，广东广州人，博士，助理研究员，主要从事城市与区域发展和规划，（E-mail）chiwai_do@foxmail.com。
• 基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（41801122）；广东省科学院实施创新驱动发展能力建设专项（2016GDASRC-0101）；广州市哲学社会科学发展“十三五”规划项目（2017GZGJ33）

### Industrial Diversity, Innovation, and Economic Resilience: Empirical Analysis of the Pearl River Delta in the Post-financial Crisis Era

Du Zhiwei1,2, Jin Lixia1,2 and Liu Qiuhua3

1. (1. Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou 510070, China; 2. Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application, Guangzhou 510070, China; 3. Guangzhou City Polytechnic, Guangzhou 510405, China)
• Online:2019-03-05 Published:2019-03-05

Abstract: In the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008, some cities in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) effectively responded and adapted to the economic crisis and achieved regrowth, while others were caught in a development dilemma, facing sustained shrinkage problems such as a decline in the industrial economy, reduction in the labor force, and factories and houses lying vacant. In the context of this phenomenon, this paper focuses on the relationship between urban economic structure, industrial innovation, and economic resilience. Through the measurement of economic resilience, industrial diversification, related and non-related diversification, and innovation, we highlight the effects of industrial diversity, related variety, unrelated variety, and innovation on economic resilience for the period 2008–2017. For this purpose, we investigate spatial–temporal characteristics of their differences from the perspectives of nine prefecture-level cities in the PRD. Moreover, this paper uses regression analysis to examine the influencing factors (i.e., degree of economic openness, economic development level, and local financial situation) of economic resilience. We find that, first, industrial diversity and innovation both have a significant positive impact on economic resilience in the PRD. That is, higher the degree of industrial diversity and stronger the innovation ability, higher the level of economic resilience will be when facing the impact of a financial crisis. Second, there is a positive correlation between economic openness, development level, and resilience. However, we find that high domestic demand in Mainland China effectively offsets the impact of the financial crisis on the PRD’s export-oriented economy. After the shock of the financial crisis in 2008, the trajectories of economic resilience and industrial diversity generally tended to decline, while the level of industrial innovation rapidly increased. From a spatial perspective, the distribution of economic resilience in the PRD shows significant heterogeneity before and after the financial crisis. That is, it changed from a “center-periphery” pattern with Guangzhou as the core city in the PRD to a “double-pole” pattern featuring Shenzhen and Zhuhai as the two poles. In addition, the impact of related and unrelated variety on economic resilience is mixed: related variety has a negative influence on economic resilience, while unrelated variety is conducive to improving it. The results can be summarized as follows: regional and local governments should focus on strengthening unrelated diversification in different sectors during the process of industrial transformation and upgrading, to make regional economic systems resilient through diffusing the crisis among different sectors. At the same time, it is necessary to recognize that a region's industrial base will play an important role in shaping its future economic potential through influencing factors such as industry structure, human capital, innovation atmosphere, business culture, government services, and more.