热带地理

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广州“5·21”新冠肺炎疫情时空演化与防控管理

李文辉1,3(), 陈丽茹2, 冼楚盈1, 孙彩歌1   

  1. 1.华南师范大学,地理科学学院,广州 510006
    2.华南师范大学,经济与管理学院,广州 510006
    3.华南师范大学,国家绿色光电子国际联合研究中心,广州 510006
  • 收稿日期:2021-11-17 修回日期:2022-01-20 出版日期:2022-05-23
  • 作者简介:李文辉(1980—),男,广东惠州人,博士,研究员,主要研究方向为数理统计与疫情地理、专利计量与创新地理,(E-mail)liwenhui@m.scnu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家社科基金重大项目(21ZDA011);国家自然科学基金项目(41871107)

Temporal and Spatial Evolution and Prevention and Control Management of the "5·21" COVID-19 in Guangzhou

Wenhui Li1,3(), Liru Chen2, Chuying Xian1, Caige Sun1   

  1. 1.School of Geography, South China Normal University, Research on Green Optoelectronics, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510006, China
    2.School of Economics and Management, Research on Green Optoelectronics, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510006, China
    3.National Center for International, Research on Green Optoelectronics, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510006, China
  • Received:2021-11-17 Revised:2022-01-20 Online:2022-05-23

摘要:

广州“5·21”新冠肺炎疫情是境内首起由新冠病毒“德尔塔”(Delta)变异毒株引发的本土疫情。以广州“5·21”疫情感染者为对象,采用统计分析、文本分析和社会网络分析方法,分析本土境外输入关联疫情的统计特征、扩散网络与防控管理。研究结论主要有:1)广州“5·21”疫情感染者以老年人居多,感染者潜伏期较短,病毒传播速度快。核酸检测筛查可将病毒传播的风险精准控制在已知范围;行程轨迹可以辅助及时厘清病毒传播链条,切断传播途径。2)感染者所在区和镇街、重点防控区域、分级分类防控管理区域呈片状和点状分布,感染者在少数镇街呈集聚分布特征,疫情传播以接触扩散为主、兼具跳跃扩散的特征。3)疫情扩散传播网络以“簇状”和“链状”为主,网络整体呈现一定“小世界”特征;网络节点层面指标值较高的节点处于疫情接触扩散传播网络的关键路径,是疫情分级分类防控管理的重点对象。4)疫情分级分类防控管理应做好出入管理、社区管控、居家隔离、需求保障、生活垃圾处理、环境消杀、健康监测和服务、核酸检测、宣传引导和管控解除等工作。

关键词: 新型冠状病毒肺炎, 本土疫情, 分级分类, 流行病学, 扩散网络, 广州

Abstract:

The "5·21" epidemic in Guangzhou was the first local outbreak in China caused by the COVID-19 mutation (Delta). This study analyzed the statistical characteristics, diffusion network, and prevention and control management of the epidemic domestically and globally, using infected persons during the "5·21" epidemic in Guangzhou as an example. The research methods include statistical analysis, text analysis and social network analysis. The research conclusions showed: (1) that most infected people during the epidemic were older adults. The virus incubation period was short and spread quickly. Furthermore, nucleic acid detection and screening can accurately control the risk of virus transmission within a known range. The virus's travel path in Guangzhou helped clarify the transmission chain timeously and cut off the transmission route. (2) The infected persons in Guanzhou were distributed in fragments and distributed throughout the region, town streets, key areas, and designated prevention and control management areas. The infected persons were clustered in a few towns and streets in Guangzhou. The epidemic spread in Guangzhou is mainly due to interpersonal contact and has airborne spread characteristics. (3) The virus spread happened in "cluster" and "chain" formations. This network presents "small world" characteristics as a whole. In Guangzhou, nodes with high index values at the network node level have established extensive contact relations with other nodes and are on the key path of the epidemic contact diffusion network. They are the key objects of hierarchical and classified epidemic prevention and control management. (4) The "5·21" epidemic situation in Guangzhou shows the hierarchical and classified prevention and control management measures should include 10 aspects: access management, community control, home isolation, demand guarantee, domestic waste treatment, environment disinfection, health monitoring and services, nucleic acid detection, publicity and guidance, control lifting.

Key words: Corona Virus Disease 2019, local epidemic situation, classification, epidemiology, diffusion network, Guangzhou

中图分类号: 

  • C812