TROPICAL GEOGRAPHY ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (6): 852-861.doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003000

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Trade Linkages between ASEAN and Great Powers and Their Influencing Factors

WANG Qian1,2,SONG Tao1,LIANG Yi1,2,ZOU Jialing1,3   

  1. (1.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049,China;3.The Smart City Research Institute of China Electronics Technology Group Corporation,Shenzhen 518040,China)
  • Online:2017-11-05 Published:2017-11-05

Abstract:

Southeast Asia is the key to China’s peripheral diplomacy. In “the Belt and Road” construction period, it is meaningful to study on the trade links and influencing factors between ASEAN member states and major world powers. On the one hand, it will help to grasp the changes of international trade forces in Southeast Asia since 2000. And on the other hand, targeting the important influencing factors, China will strengthen the bilateral cooperation with ASEAN to promote more in-depth cooperation in the future. Based on social network analysis and gravity model, this paper analyzes the degree of centralism in the trade network, role similarity of ASEAN and its main trade objects, then discusses the factors that affect the trade between the two sides, such as distance, population, GDP, political system differences, trade agreements, and puts forward some proposals about future trade development between China and ASEAN. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) The trade density between ASEAN countries and major powers has been increasing since 2000. Singapore, Malaysia are the bellwethers of ASEAN's foreign trade; 2) Among the major powers, the roles of the United States and China in the trade network are similar, and the probability of their competition in ASEAN trade is also large; 3) ASEAN’s trade dependence on China has been rising since 2000, while the economic dependence on the USA and Japan has been relatively reduced; 4) The regional multilateral trade organization can promote the trade between countries, and counteract the hindrance of distance; 5) China should establish more preferential trade policies with ASEAN to enhance bilateral economic dependence, enhance political mutual trust and promote non-governmental exchanges.

Key words: trade network, interdependence, Geopolitics, Association of Southeast Asian Nations