Tropical Geography ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (1): 63-73.doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003166
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Cheng Hanbei1, Liu Yuqi2, Gou Feicui1, Chen Hongshen3, Li Zhigang1()
Received:
2019-03-28
Revised:
2019-07-14
Online:
2020-01-10
Published:
2020-02-24
Contact:
Li Zhigang
E-mail:zhigangli@whu.edu.cn
CLC Number:
Cheng Hanbei, Liu Yuqi, Gou Feicui, Chen Hongshen, Li Zhigang. Profiles and Mechanisms of Return Migration in Post-Reform Urban China:A Case Study of Four Cities[J].Tropical Geography, 2020, 40(1): 63-73.
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Tab.1
Samplings of new generation migrants in Beijing, Shenzhen, Chengdu and Zhongshan"
流动人口类型 | 北京 | 深圳 | 成都 | 中山 | 合计 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
数量/人 | 占比/% | 数量/人 | 占比/% | 数量/人 | 占比/% | 数量/人 | 占比/% | 数量/人 | 占比/% | |||||
智力型 | 187 | 19.8 | 155 | 17.4 | 95 | 14.5 | 90 | 11.8 | 527 | 16.2 | ||||
投资型 | 105 | 11.1 | 180 | 20.2 | 86 | 13.2 | 121 | 15.9 | 492 | 15.1 | ||||
劳力型 | 654 | 69.1 | 557 | 62.4 | 472 | 72.3 | 552 | 72.3 | 2 235 | 68.7 | ||||
合计 | 946 | 100 | 892 | 100 | 653 | 100 | 763 | 100 | 3 254 | 100 |
Tab.2
Definition and statistical description of variables in new generation migrants among four cities"
变量名称 | 变量定义 | 统计 | 全体样本 | 智力型 | 投资型 | 劳力型 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
客观属性 | 人 口 学 因 素 | 性别 | 男 | 占比/% | 57.74 | 60.15 | 58.74 | 56.96 |
女 | 占比/% | 42.26 | 39.85 | 41.26 | 43.04 | |||
年龄 | 调查时实际年龄值/岁 | 均值 | 28.98 | 29.08 | 29.49 | 28.84 | ||
标准差 | 3.10 | 2.90 | 2.94 | 3.09 | ||||
受教育程度 | 初中及以下 | 占比/% | 41.70 | 16.70 | 49.19 | 45.95 | ||
高中及专科 | 47.02 | 48.58 | 44.92 | 47.11 | ||||
本科以上 | 11.28 | 34.72 | 5.89 | 6.94 | ||||
婚姻状况 | 未婚 | 占比/% | 25.90 | 26.90 | 13.60 | 28.40 | ||
曾结过婚(已婚、离异及丧偶) | 74.10 | 73.10 | 86.40 | 71.60 | ||||
<18岁子女数 | 未成年子女数量 | 均值 | 0.85 | 0.67 | 1.18 | 0.82 | ||
标准差 | 0.77 | 0.68 | 0.80 | 0.76 | ||||
经 济 因 素 | 个人收入 | 个人实际月收入/千元 | 均值 | 4.40 | 5.47 | 5.64 | 3.87 | |
标准差 | 3.97 | 3.59 | 6.10 | 3.28 | ||||
日工作时长 | 小时 | 均值 | 9.02 | 8.37 | 9.98 | 8.96 | ||
标准差 | 1.65 | 1.07 | 2.17 | 1.54 | ||||
合同形式 | 签订正式合同(含有固定期限和无固定期限) | 占比/% | 59.20 | 87.50 | 9.10 | 63.60 | ||
未签订及其他(如个体户、无单位或劳务协议等) | 40.80 | 12.50 | 90.90 | 36.40 | ||||
在外务工时间 | 在外务工实际年限/a(第一次离开户籍地半年以上 至调查时间) | 均值 | 7.47 | 7.98 | 8.19 | 7.19 | ||
标准差 | 4.57 | 4.17 | 4.61 | 4.62 | ||||
主观感知 | 经济地位感知 | 城乡收入 差异感知 | 经济收入与您老家的亲戚、朋友和同事比?项目打分,由低至高1~10 | 均值 | 5.81 | 6.19 | 5.78 | 5.72 |
标准差 | 1.72 | 1.64 | 1.67 | 1.73 | ||||
社 会 心 理 感 知 | 城市社会适应 | 觉得自己或家人与本地人相处情况? 来往很少=1,不融洽=2,一般=3,比较融洽=4,很融洽=5 | 均值 | 3.84 | 3.97 | 3.88 | 3.79 | |
标准差 | 1.00 | 1.01 | 1.00 | 0.99 | ||||
家庭“心理 成本”指数 | 目前您在老家操心的事情:老人赡养、子女照看、 配偶生活孤独、干活缺人手、土地耕种和其他各项 记为1分,6项得分总和,得分范围0~6 | 均值 | 2.45 | 2.32 | 2.28 | 2.51 | ||
标准差 | 1.09 | 0.99 | 1.05 | 1.11 | ||||
家乡生活 方式认同 | 是否愿意保持家乡生活方式,如饮食习惯等,非常 不愿意—非常愿意:1~5 | 均值 | 3.44 | 3.39 | 3.56 | 3.42 | ||
标准差 | 0.82 | 0.80 | 0.81 | 0.82 |
Tab.3
The comparison of returning intentions and location choices of new generation migrants"
回流行为 | 项目 | 全体样本 | 智力型 | 投资型 | 劳力型 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
回流意愿(N=3 254) | 回流 | 40.0 | 27.9 | 36.0 | 43.7 |
不回流 | 60.0 | 72.1 | 64.0 | 56.3 | |
区位选择(N=1 301) | 回流至户籍地附近的城市(镇) | 40.6 | 59.9 | 32.8 | 39.1 |
户籍地所在的省会城市(非现流入地) | 2.5 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 1.9 | |
户籍地所在的地级市(非现流入地) | 8.3 | 15.0 | 6.2 | 7.7 | |
户籍地的县(市、区)或乡镇 | 29.8 | 38.8 | 24.3 | 29.5 | |
回流至户籍地乡村 | 59.4 | 40.1 | 67.2 | 60.9 |
Tab.4
Binary logistic regression results of returning intentions in new generation migrants"
因变量(回流=1,不回流=0) | 模型一:全体样本 | 模型二:智力型 | 模型三:投资型 | 模型四:劳力型 | 模型五:稳健性检验 | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
估计值 | 标准误 | 估计值 | 标准误 | 估计值 | 标准误 | 估计值 | 标准误 | 估计值 | 标准误 | ||||||||
客 观 属 性 | 人口学因素 | 性别(参照组=女) | 0.307*** | 0.079 | 0.820*** | 0.232 | 0.379* | 0.216 | 0.220** | 0.094 | -0.047 | 0.134 | |||||
年龄 | -0.046*** | 0.015 | -0.061 | 0.046 | -0.142*** | 0.041 | -0.022 | 0.018 | -0.014** | 0.025 | |||||||
受教育程度(参照组:初中及以下) | 高中及专科 | -0.552*** | 0.086 | -0.150 | 0.296 | -0.608*** | 0.226 | -0.565*** | 0.1 | -0.604*** | 0.147 | ||||||
本科以上 | -1.173*** | 0.166 | -0.566 | 0.366 | -2.091*** | 0.684 | -1.144*** | 0.221 | -0.562** | 0.282 | |||||||
婚姻状况(参照组=未婚) | 0.129 | 0.121 | 0.176 | 0.317 | 0.177 | 0.394 | 0.081 | 0.143 | -0.273 | 0.201 | |||||||
18岁以下子女数 | 0.012 | 0.074 | -0.008 | 0.216 | 0.123 | 0.18 | -0.010 | 0.09 | -0.076 | 0.132 | |||||||
经济因素 | 个人收入 | -0.033** | 0.013 | -0.123*** | 0.046 | -0.012 | 0.019 | -0.045** | 0.021 | -0.036 | 0.031 | ||||||
日工作时长 | 0.042* | 0.025 | 0.057 | 0.105 | 0.031 | 0.049 | 0.051* | 0.031 | 0.052 | 0.044 | |||||||
合同形式(参照组=未签订及其他) | 签订正式 劳动合同 | 0.089 | 0.093 | 0.410 | 0.34 | 0.577 | 0.386 | 0.017 | 0.101 | 0.284 | 0.155 | ||||||
在外务工时间 | -0.018* | 0.009 | -0.010 | 0.029 | 0.019 | 0.025 | -0.024** | 0.011 | -0.062*** | 0.017 | |||||||
主 观 感 知 | 经济地位感知 | 城乡收入差异感知 | -0.023 | 0.023 | 0.100 | 0.068 | -0.126* | 0.066 | -0.025 | 0.027 | -0.021 | 0.038 | |||||
社会心理感知 | 城市社会适应 | -0.146*** | 0.041 | -0.033 | 0.107 | -0.321*** | 0.111 | -0.118** | 0.049 | -0.264*** | 0.063 | ||||||
家庭“心理成本”指数 | 0.292*** | 0.037 | 0.335*** | 0.107 | 0.120 | 0.099 | 0.312*** | 0.043 | 0.107** | 0.060 | |||||||
家乡生活方式认同 | 0.225*** | 0.048 | 0.286** | 0.135 | 0.379*** | 0.132 | 0.188*** | 0.057 | 0.265*** | 0.082 | |||||||
流入地城市等级 (参照组= 北京) | 深圳 | 0.237** | 0.105 | 0.614** | 0.286 | -0.353 | 0.279 | 0.285** | 0.128 | 0.279* | 0.181 | ||||||
成都 | -0.922*** | 0.122 | -0.433 | 0.353 | -1.222*** | 0.369 | -1.015*** | 0.142 | -0.090 | 0.205 | |||||||
中山 | -0.289** | 0.114 | -0.100 | 0.364 | -0.749** | 0.325 | -0.252* | 0.132 | 0.127** | 0.200 | |||||||
移民类别(参照组= 智力型) | 投资型 | 0.018 | 0.164 | — | — | — | -0.320 | 0.324 | |||||||||
劳力型 | 0.338*** | 0.12 | — | — | — | 0.275 | 0.218 | ||||||||||
常数项 | -0.033 | 0.559 | -2.084 | 1.856 | 3.787*** | 1.445 | -0.254 | 0.644 | -1.897** | 0.942 | |||||||
似然比 | 3 930.957*** | 551.690*** | 563.619*** | 2 767.208*** | 1 737.980*** | ||||||||||||
考克斯-斯奈尔R2 | 0.129 | 0.128 | 0.149 | 0.124 | 0.039 | ||||||||||||
内戈尔科R2 | 0.174 | 0.184 | 0.204 | 0.167 | 0.088 | ||||||||||||
解释比/% | 66.7 | 73.4 | 69.1 | 65.3 | 91.7 | ||||||||||||
样本数量/个 | 3 254 | 527 | 492 | 2 235 | 3 254 |
Tab.5
Multiple Nominal Logistic regression results of location choices in new generation migrants"
模型六:全体样本 | 模型七:智力型 | 模型八:投资型 | 模型九:劳力型 | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
参照组:回流至户籍地的村 | 省会 城市 | 地级市 | 县(市、 区)或 乡镇 | 省会 城市 | 地级市 | 县(市、 区)或 乡镇 | 省会城市 和地级市 | 县(市、 区)或 乡镇 | 省会 城市 | 地级市 | 县(市、 区)或 乡镇 | ||||||
系数 | 系数 | 系数 | 系数 | 系数 | 系数 | 系数 | 系数 | 系数 | 系数 | 系数 | |||||||
客 观 属 性 | 人口学因素 | 性别(参照组=女) | -0.231 | -0.359 | -0.284** | -0.323 | 0.044 | -0.596 | -0.145 | -0.593 | 0.067 | -0.660** | -0.236 | ||||
年龄 | -0.060 | 0.007 | -0.054** | -0.253 | 0.022 | 0.092 | -0.030 | -0.114 | -0.026 | 0.015 | -0.061** | ||||||
受教育程度(参照组:初中及以下) | 高中及专科 | 1.214** | 0.543** | 0.341** | -0.794 | -0.693 | 0.447 | 1.086 | 0.821* | 1.473** | 0.660** | 0.281* | |||||
本科以上 | 3.368*** | 0.848* | 0.650* | 1.757 | 0.512 | 0.831 | -12.860 | 1.422 | 3.851*** | 0.602 | 0.602 | ||||||
婚姻状况(参照组=未婚) | 1.066* | -0.230 | -0.080 | 0.268 | -0.295 | -0.180 | 0.173 | -1.400* | 1.572* | -0.117 | -0.098 | ||||||
<18岁子女数 | -0.023 | -0.287 | -0.005 | 0.673 | 0.583 | -0.336 | -0.175 | 0.451 | 0.003 | -0.657** | 0.027 | ||||||
经济因素 | 个人收入 | 0.099** | 0.108*** | 0.079*** | 0.276* | 0.169 | 0.115 | 0.065 | 0.063 | 0.197** | 0.217*** | 0.096** | |||||
日工作时长 | 0.184 | 0.112 | 0.064 | -1.493 | 0.354 | 0.434* | 0.193 | 0.009 | 0.466*** | 0.077 | 0.063 | ||||||
合同形式(参照组= 未签订及其他) | 签订正式 劳动合同 | 0.300 | 0.298 | 0.120 | -0.275 | 0.753 | 1.112 | -0.181 | 0.199 | 1.101* | 0.277 | 0.060 | |||||
在外务工时间 | -0.043 | -0.014 | 0.043*** | -0.046 | -0.136* | 0.009 | 0.061 | 0.009 | -0.155** | -0.015 | 0.051*** | ||||||
主 观 感 知 | 经济地位感知 | 城乡收入差异感知 | -0.177 | -0.067 | -0.008 | -0.227 | -0.168 | -0.177 | 0.396* | 0.088 | -0.409*** | -0.145* | 0.003 | ||||
社会心理感知 | 城市社会适应 | -0.112 | 0.213* | -0.023 | 0.443 | 0.699** | 0.340 | 0.179 | -0.463** | -0.314 | 0.132 | -0.009 | |||||
家庭“心理成本”指数 | -0.064 | -0.240** | -0.129** | 0.086 | -0.248 | -0.400** | -0.647* | -0.020 | 0.130 | -0.225* | -0.098 | ||||||
家乡生活方式认同 | -0.258 | -0.400*** | -0.128 | -0.347 | 0.085 | 0.281 | -0.185 | -0.877*** | -0.206 | -0.529*** | -0.083 | ||||||
流入地城市等级(参照组=北京) | 深圳 | -1.092** | 0.222 | -0.372** | 1.017 | 0.084 | -0.498 | -0.753 | -0.283 | -1.433** | 0.332 | -0.341* | |||||
成都 | 0.357 | 0.719** | 0.519** | 1.227 | 0.512 | -0.042 | 0.585 | 2.050** | 0.451 | 1.018** | 0.478** | ||||||
中山 | -2.664** | -0.287 | -0.807*** | 1.453 | -1.361 | -0.697 | -1.937 | -1.046 | -16.185 | 0.154 | -0.837*** | ||||||
移民类别(参照组=智力型) | 投资型 | -0.893 | -1.158** | -0.939*** | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||||
劳力型 | -0.862* | -0.775** | -0.484** | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
常数项 | -1.324 | -1.179 | 1.309 | 15.346 | -6.354 | -7.382* | -4.797 | 6.755** | -5.666 | -1.084 | 0.586 | ||||||
似然比 | 2 305.134*** | 349.574*** | 212.427*** | 1 658.927*** | |||||||||||||
考克斯-斯奈尔R2 | 0.151 | 0.320 | 0.416 | 0.159 | |||||||||||||
内戈尔科R2 | 0.177 | 0.353 | 0.505 | 0.188 | |||||||||||||
样本数量/个 | 1 301 | 147 | 177 | 977 |
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