热带地理

TROPICAL GEOGRAPHY ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (3): 377-386.doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003136

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Delimitation of Urban Development Boundaries Using Two Basic Evaluations and FLUS-UGB: A Case Study of Changchun

Zhang Shaoyue1，Liu Xiaoping2，Yan Shizhong1，Zhan Qiang1 and Liu Tongqi1   

  1. (1. Changchun Institute of Urban Planning and Design, Changchun 130022, China; 2. School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China)
  • Received:2019-01-07 Revised:2019-03-22 Online:2019-05-05 Published:2019-05-05

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Abstract:

The reform of the ecological civilization system and mechanism has provided a background upon which the “three lines” delineation acts as an important avenue for optimizing land organization and natural resource management. The urban development boundary-as the rigid bottom line for controlling town land use and expansion-is essential to the forced transformation of the city and the improvement of urban governance and governance capabilities. However, most existing methods of setting urban development boundaries emphasizes the urban factors alone or simply coordinates the urban development boundary with ecological and agricultural elements; they rarely examine urban development boundaries from the perspective of global pattern optimization, thus causing many issues to align with pre-technical, post-management management. Additionally, after the 18th National Congress, China entered a new governance stage that identifies problems using systematic problem solving and has gradually implemented this problem-solving framework. Therefore, the study of urban development boundaries should be reformed from a direct or partial perspective to a comprehensive perspective. By adopting systematic thinking, this study considers all elements of national land space and the coordination of various stages of spatial planning and then presents a systematic method with which urban development boundaries may be delineated, including two basic evaluations, three types of space division, and urban development boundary delimitation. Specifically, the section on the two basic evaluations identifies environment backgrounds by overlapping assessment. With the resource and environment carrying capacity evaluation, the resource endowment level and carrying capacity constraints can be identified by rating and summarizing major natural elements. And with the space development suitability evaluation, under three different developing orientation, the suitability level of ecological, agricultural and urban functions can be determined by rating and summarizing both natural and human factors. The section exploring three types of space division emphasizes land use type determination, the process by which authorities select the most suitable land designation based on the space development suitability evaluation result and functional development priorities, thus extracting urban development space. The urban development boundary delimitation section includes the FLUS-UGB model, which utilizes the random forest model to select input factors; the cellular automata model to simulate city dynamic evolution; and policy and planning factors that revise spatial growth trends and delimitate boundaries morphologically. This study presents Changchun City as an example, using land use data from 2010 to 2015 to perform model simulation and accuracy verification with an overall accuracy score of 0.922 3 and Kappa of 0.844 6, which indicates that this model is highly accurate. We then use this model to delimitate the urban development boundary of Changchun City in 2035 and formulate effective control measures. This method progresses from background values to suitable target values and control values, recognizing natural endowments and integrating function and optimize layout. Thus, it comprises a complete urban development boundary delimitation framework, which works toward establishing development and protection patterns of land space in Changchun City and provides a reference for further domestic research.

Key words: urban development boundary, resource and environment carrying capacity evaluation, space development suitability evaluation, FLUS-UGB, Changchun