Abstract:

Drawing on data from the 2016 "Migrants' Dynamic Monitoring Survey", using descriptive analysis and three multinomial logistic regression models, this paper describes the latest status and characteristics of return migration intentions, and explores the relationship between migration characteristics and return migration intentions. Findings showed that migrants’ return intentions is particularly weak; more than 40% of migrants plan to return in the near future; the return regions are diverse and dispersed. They present a multi-location interactive mode of "destination place, namely the original location as the main part and administrative townships and counties (districts) as the auxiliary part." Among the migrants who return to their administrative townships and counties (districts), the proportion of those who return to their administrative county is higher than that those who return to their administrative township. The results of the models show that migration characteristics have a significant influence on return migration intentions. Intra-provincial migrants are more likely to return than inter-provincial migrants. Compared with migrants with shorter migration times, migrants with longer migration times are more likely to return; to do so within 2 years; and return to their point of origin. Migrants within the category of non-whole family migration are more likely to return; to do so within 2 years; and return to their point of origin than in the case of whole-family migration. Compared with migrants who have no children left behind, migrants who have left children behind are more likely to return and to do so within 2 years than those who have not. Migrants' return intentions is obviously influenced by characteristics such as career, income, education level, age, and other variables. Relatively speaking, those with lower occupational prestige, income and education levels and those of older age are more likely to return. Based on the above results, it is suggested that the government should implement the strategy of “holding local citizenization as essential, with reflux citizenization as a supplement”; continue to deepen systemic reform to clear up institutional barriers and provide equal public service to migrant workers; and promote the economic and social development of the Central, Western and Northeastern regions, formulating preferential policies to encourage farmers to return.

Key words: new urbanization, migrants, return migration intentions, migration characteristics, citizenization