热带地理

热带地理 ›› 2015, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (4): 577-584.doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002730

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

缅北果敢冲突的时空演进及其对中国边境安全的直接影响——基于事件数据及实地调查的解读

熊理然1,2，骆华松1a,2，付 磊1b，胡志丁1a,2，李灿松2   

  1. （1．云南师范大学 a．旅游与地理科学学院；b．国际学院，昆明 650500；2．中国西南地缘环境与边疆发展协同创新中心，昆明 650500）
  • 出版日期:2015-07-03 发布日期:2015-07-03
  • 通讯作者: 骆华松（1964―），男，湖南新田人，博士，教授，博导，主要研究方向为区域合作与东南亚区域发展，（E-mail）huasong22@qq.com。
  • 作者简介:熊理然（1976―），男，湖南道县人，博士，副教授，主要研究方向为地缘环境与边疆区域发展，（E-mail）xiongliran@126.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目（41261034）；国家社科基金项目（12CMZ042）；高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金新教师类资助课题（20125302120002）研究成果之一

Spatial-Temporal Evolution of KoKang Conflicts in the Northern Myanmar and Its Immediate Impacts on China’s Border Security: Based on the Event Data and Field Survey

XIONG Liran1,2，LUO Huasong1a,2，FU Lei1b，HU Zhiding1a,2，LI Cansong2   

  1. （１．a．College of Tourism and Geography Sciences；b．School of International Studies，Yunnan Normal University，Kunming 650500，China； 2．Collaborative Innovation Center of Geo-environment and Borderland Development in Southwest China， Yunnan Normal University，Kunming 650500，China）
  • Online:2015-07-03 Published:2015-07-03

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摘要：

基于事件数据及实地调查和访谈数据，首先对缅北果敢冲突的时空演进进行梳理，分析不同阶段冲突双方的战争目标及其冲突的空间特征；在此基础上，分析缅北果敢冲突对中国边境沿线的传统安全影响——边境沿线直接遭受到战争伤害和威胁，以及非传统安全影响——边境沿线的社会恐慌及不安定因素增加，并基于缅北果敢冲突的空间分异探讨了冲突对中国边境安全影响的区域差异，即在毗邻果敢南部的中国边境一线，最直接的安全问题是缅甸军机的越境以及缅方炸弹落入中国境内造成中国边境沿线人民的财产损失和生命安全威胁；在毗邻果敢北部的中国边境一线，最直接的安全问题是大量缅甸果敢籍边民为躲避战乱进入中国后引发的社会稳定与社会安全隐患问题。最后，研究认为双方交战的主战场有可能进一步靠近中缅边境并向果敢北部地区扩展，如果冲突持续发展将对东南亚及东印度洋地区的地缘政治经济关系产生深远影响。

关键词: 果敢冲突, 时空演进, 边境安全, 区域差异

Abstract:

Since the adjacent Chinese border, the military conflict of Kokang area in Northern Myanmar has an immediate impact on China's border security. Based on the event data and field survey data, the article reviews the spatial-temporal evolution pattern of Kokang Conflict in Northern Myanmar, and analyzes the war aims of both the Myanmar Government Army and MNDAA and the spatial characteristics of the conflict at different stages; On this basis, this paper analyzes the traditional security impact along China’s border caused by the Kokang Conflict, i.e. direct war damages and threats, as well as the non-traditional ones that may lead to social panic and increasing social uncertainty. The regional differences of China’s border security in response to the spatial variation of Kokang Conflict, the most immediate security problem is the loss of property and the life security threats of the Chinese people along the border caused by Myanmar military aircraft cross-border or Myanmar bomb falling in China near the southern Kokang, the most immediate security issue is social stability and social safety problems caused by a lot of Kokang refugees into China along the border near the northern Kokang. Finally, this study suggests that the main battlefield of warring parties is likely to further close to China-Myanmar border and extend to the northern Kokang, if the conflicts continued it would have had profound impacts on the geo-political and economic relations in Southeast Asia and the eastern Indian Ocean Region.

Key words: Kokang Conflict, spatial and temporal evolution, border security, regional differences