浙江省余姚市室内财产洪水脆弱性曲线——基于台风菲特（201323）灾后问卷调查

doi:10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002828

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 脆弱性用于量化承灾体在不同致灾因子强度下的损失率，是灾害系统特性的重要组成部分。灾害损失及危险性实际案例数据不足，是脆弱性定量研究的重要制约因素。研究面向台风菲特（201323）造成的余姚市室内财产洪水灾害，首先给出了脆弱性曲线及刻画二级不确定性的概念图；其次设计了灾害调查问卷并实地开展调查形成386 份有效问卷；然后，基于调查数据分析了室内财产损失率随洪水淹没水深增加的变化特点；最后，用Logistic 函数拟合了8 条室内财产洪水脆弱性曲线，并利用Beta 函数对脆弱性曲线的二级不确定性进行了量化。结果表明：室内财产较少或收入较低的家户或商户的受灾概率更高；室内财产损失率与淹没水深的关系可以分为渐增―快增―缓增3 个阶段；不同水深区间的损失率不确定性分布存在差异，快增阶段的二级不确定性要高于渐增和缓增阶段；室内财产损失率与淹没时长之间缺乏统计意义上的显著相关。研究结果可以有效地描述浙江省余姚市室内财产洪水脆弱性，可为灾后损失评估、巨灾模型应用等提供有效的参数输入。

关键词: 洪水灾害, 脆弱性, 室内财产, 不确定性, 问卷调查

Abstract: Vulnerability, which quantifies the loss ratio under different hazard intensity, is an important feature of the natural disaster system. However, its estimation is hampered by the lack of loss data of actual cases. To investigate the building content loss due to Typhoon Fitow, we first introduced the concept of flood vulnerability curve and its secondary uncertainty analysis, designed and distributed the questionnaire and collected 386 valid responses, and then analyzed how the loss ratio increased with the water depth based on the survey data. Finally, we fitted eight flood vulnerability curves for building contents using the Logistic function, and quantified their secondary uncertainties using the Beta function. This study reveals that the lower-income households or commercial tenants are more vulnerable to the typhoon disasters. The mean damage ratio of the contents increases with the increasing water depth, which can be generally divided into three stages according to the growth rate. However, the uncertainty within the vulnerability curves arises from many sources. Thus, the secondary uncertainty distribution of the loss ratio which is more dispersed in the second stage varies in different segments of water depth. The correlation between loss ratio and flooding duration is not statistically significant in terms of this questionnaire survey data. The results can effectively describe the flood vulnerability for building contents in Yuyao city of Zhejiang Province so as to provide the input to post-disaster loss assessments and catastrophe modeling applications.

Key words: flood disaster, vulnerability, building content, uncertainty, questionnaire survey

莫婉媚，方伟华. 浙江省余姚市室内财产洪水脆弱性曲线——基于台风菲特（201323）灾后问卷调查[J]. 热带地理, 2016, 36(4): 633-641.

MO Wanmei，FANG Weihua. Empirical Vulnerability Functions of Building Contents to Flood Based on Post-typhoon（Fitow, 201323）Questionnaire Survey in Yuyao, Zhejiang[J]. TROPICAL GEOGRAPHY, 2016, 36(4): 633-641.

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