• 论文 •

### “一带一路”沿线国家碳排放驱动因素、减排贡献与潜力

1. （暨南大学 a．经济学院；b．资源环境与可持续发展研究所，广州 510632）
• 出版日期:2017-01-05 发布日期:2017-01-05
• 作者简介:傅京燕（1973―），女，北京人，教授，博士，博士生导师，主要研究方向为环境规制政策，（E-mail）fuan2@163.com; 司秀梅（1991―），女，河南人，硕士研究生，研究方向为国际投资与环境，（E-mail）1576602035@qq.com。
• 基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目“基于强度减排的碳交易机制对产业竞争力影响的理论研究与ECGE模拟”（71273115）

### Driving Factors of Carbon Emission of the Countries along “the Belt and Road”, Their Potential and Contribution to the Emission Reduction

FU Jingyan，SI Xiumei

1. （a．School of Economics；b．Institute of Resources，Environment and Sustainable Development，Jinan University，Guangzhou 510632，China）
• Online:2017-01-05 Published:2017-01-05

Abstract: “One Belt & One Road” (B&R) strategy which was firstly proposed by China, can be considered as the provision of public goods to the world. What is more, green and environmental protection requirements have been one of the most important content. Recent studies about this strategy have tended to focus on the strategic and institutional frame design by qualitative discussion, and almost no discussion about carbon emission and environmental issues. Based on the differences of low-carbon economy in B&R countries, how to choose the investment projects and countries will be very important to make “B&R” strategy green. Thus, this paper constructs a carbon emission driving factor decomposition model by extending the classic Kaya model. Then, we analyze the drivers of the carbon emission in 50 countries along the Belt and Road from 1992 to 2011 by adopting the approaches of the ordinary regression analysis and quantile regression. At last, we evaluate the historical contribution and potential of those countries to carbon emission reduction by constructing indicators. The results of mean regression analysis show that the effects of population, the urbanization level, the proportion of industrial output, the rate of non-renewable energy and the per capita GDP on the increase of the carbon emission successively weaken. From the quantile regression analysis, we find that the increase of population and industrialization degree has the greatest effect on the carbon emission for medium-emission countries; GDP per capita has the minimal impact on high emission countries. Emission contribution analysis shows that the carbon emission output effects, carbon emission reduction effects and decoupling index in those countries are all less than 1, the carbon emission reduction effect is less than the output effect index and decoupling indicators in most years are even less than 0. This indicates that the relation between economics and carbon emission in those countries do not have any decoupling effect. Judging from the carbon emission reduction potential analysis, we find that 28% of those countries have not reached the world average reduction level, and most countries would have great potential for emission reduction in the future. Thus, more investment in those countries will be helpful for a green “B&R” strategy.