热带地理 ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (1): 1-9.doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002917

• 论文 •    下一篇

“一带一路”沿线国家碳排放驱动因素、减排贡献与潜力

傅京燕,司秀梅   

  1. (暨南大学 a.经济学院;b.资源环境与可持续发展研究所,广州 510632)
  • 出版日期:2017-01-05 发布日期:2017-01-05
  • 作者简介:傅京燕(1973―),女,北京人,教授,博士,博士生导师,主要研究方向为环境规制政策,(E-mail)fuan2@163.com; 司秀梅(1991―),女,河南人,硕士研究生,研究方向为国际投资与环境,(E-mail)1576602035@qq.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目“基于强度减排的碳交易机制对产业竞争力影响的理论研究与ECGE模拟”(71273115)

Driving Factors of Carbon Emission of the Countries along “the Belt and Road”, Their Potential and Contribution to the Emission Reduction

FU Jingyan,SI Xiumei   

  1. (a.School of Economics;b.Institute of Resources,Environment and Sustainable Development,Jinan University,Guangzhou 510632,China)
  • Online:2017-01-05 Published:2017-01-05

摘要: “一带一路”沿线国家在低碳经济方面的差异性使中国在推进绿色“一带一路”战略时面临着投资领域及投资国的倾向性选择问题。采用普通回归和分位数回归等方法分析了1992―2011年“一带一路”沿线50个国家碳排放的驱动因素,并通过构建指标量化评价了这些国家的历史减排贡献与潜力。均值回归结果表明:人口、人口城市化水平、工业产值占比、非可再生能源占比和人均GDP对碳排放的增长作用依次减弱;分位数回归结果显示:人口数量和工业化程度的提高对中等排放国家的碳排放影响最大,人口城市化水平和非可再生能源占比越高对高排放国家的碳排放影响越大,人均GDP增长越快对高排放国家的影响越小。从减排贡献来看,“一带一路”沿线国家碳排放的产出效应、减排努力和脱钩指数都<1,大多数年份的减排努力都小于产出效应,并且脱钩指数在大部分年份甚至都<0,即这些国家在低碳经济方面几乎没有发生过脱钩效应。从减排潜力来看,高达28%的国家已经挖掘的减排潜力尚未达到全球平均水平,大部分国家具有较大的减排潜力,因而对这些国家采取针对性的碳减排举措可以取得事半功倍的效果。

关键词: 一带一路, 碳排放, 减排潜力

Abstract: “One Belt & One Road” (B&R) strategy which was firstly proposed by China, can be considered as the provision of public goods to the world. What is more, green and environmental protection requirements have been one of the most important content. Recent studies about this strategy have tended to focus on the strategic and institutional frame design by qualitative discussion, and almost no discussion about carbon emission and environmental issues. Based on the differences of low-carbon economy in B&R countries, how to choose the investment projects and countries will be very important to make “B&R” strategy green. Thus, this paper constructs a carbon emission driving factor decomposition model by extending the classic Kaya model. Then, we analyze the drivers of the carbon emission in 50 countries along the Belt and Road from 1992 to 2011 by adopting the approaches of the ordinary regression analysis and quantile regression. At last, we evaluate the historical contribution and potential of those countries to carbon emission reduction by constructing indicators. The results of mean regression analysis show that the effects of population, the urbanization level, the proportion of industrial output, the rate of non-renewable energy and the per capita GDP on the increase of the carbon emission successively weaken. From the quantile regression analysis, we find that the increase of population and industrialization degree has the greatest effect on the carbon emission for medium-emission countries; GDP per capita has the minimal impact on high emission countries. Emission contribution analysis shows that the carbon emission output effects, carbon emission reduction effects and decoupling index in those countries are all less than 1, the carbon emission reduction effect is less than the output effect index and decoupling indicators in most years are even less than 0. This indicates that the relation between economics and carbon emission in those countries do not have any decoupling effect. Judging from the carbon emission reduction potential analysis, we find that 28% of those countries have not reached the world average reduction level, and most countries would have great potential for emission reduction in the future. Thus, more investment in those countries will be helpful for a green “B&R” strategy.

Key words: One Belt One Road, carbon emissions, potential of emission reduction