• 论文 •

### 基于SD模型的中国2010―2050年 土地利用变化情景模拟

1. （中山大学 地理科学与规划学院，广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室，广州 510275）
• 出版日期:2017-07-05 发布日期:2017-07-05
• 通讯作者: 黎夏（1962―），男，广西人，教授，博士生导师，主要从事地理信息科学、元胞自动机与多智能体及遥感应用研究，（E-mail）lixia@mail.sysu.edu.cn。
• 作者简介:田贺（1993―），男，安徽人，硕士研究生，主要从事遥感与地理模拟研究，（E-mail）tianhemail@163.com
• 基金资助:
国家自然科学基金（41531176、41371376）

### Simulating Multiple Land Use Scenarios in China during 2010-2050 Based on System Dynamic Model

TIAN He，LIANG Xun，LI Xia，LIU Xiaoping，OU Jinpei，HONG Ye，HE Zhijian

1. （School of Geography and Planning，Sun Yat-sen University，Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation，Guangzhou 510275，China）
• Online:2017-07-05 Published:2017-07-05

Abstract: China is going through a rapid urbanization process, which will have significant influences on the land use pattern in the nationwide scale. In this context, it is very important for getting more information about the overall trend of land use change in the coming decades. To help develop better land management policies and improve the land resource allocation, this paper provides a system dynamic model which is able to project future demands of multiple land use types under the influences of various climate change and socioeconomic factors (e.g. population, gross domestic product, investment) for large scale region in different scenarios. The developed SD model consists of four sub-modules: the population sub-module, the economy sub-module, the climate sub-module and the productivity sub-module. Meanwhile, four regions (the northeast humid and semi-humid region, the northern arid and semi-arid region, the southern humid region and the Tibet Plateau region) were designated based on China’s provincial boundary according to the regional natural ecological conditions and socio-economic development. The model is applied in mainland China to simulate future land use demands under four different scenarios from 2015 to 2050 (the fast development scenario, the baseline development scenario, the harmonious development scenario, the slow development scenario). These scenarios are developed based on future temperature and precipitation data provided by the IPCC assessment reports. The simulation results show that our newly developed SD model is able to effectively simulate long term land use change under different land use scenarios. The analysis results demonstrate that the demand for each land use type, especially the construction land and cultivated land, will vary greatly in different land use scenarios. The demand for construction land will grow in four scenarios, especially in the fast development scenario. The future demand for cultivated land will be relatively low in the baseline development scenario and the slow development scenario. In addition, the harmonious development scenario is the healthiest, which successfully keeps more ecological land than other scenarios. Besides, because of the climate change and construction land increment, the amount of water area tends to decrease in all four scenarios from 2015 to 2045. Therefore, managers should strictly control the city expansion to meet the challenges from the reduction of the water stores. The impacts of temperature and precipitation on forestland and grassland are different in the four regions. In southern humid region, areas of forest land and grassland are mainly affected by temperature. In northeast humid and semi-humid region, temperature is also the key factor for area change of grassland. In northern arid and semi-arid region, most land use types are mainly affected by precipitation while the effects of temperature on forestland and grassland cannot be ignored. In the Tibet Plateau region, forestland and grassland areas are mainly affected by precipitation. The cultivated land areas in four scenarios are more than 2 billion mu. It shows an increase from 2010 to 2050 in the fast development scenario but decreases in the other three scenarios. Especially, in the slow development scenario, the cultivated land area in 2050 will be 12.9% lower than that in 2010. This indicates that if future climate is deteriorating, it will be necessary for managers to take measures to protect cultivated land from degradation. Moreover our analysis results also indicate that the improvement of technology is also an important factor for affecting the amount of cultivated land.