• 论文 •

基于CLUE_S模型的矿区土地利用变化情景模拟——以徐州市贾汪矿区为例

1. （1．江苏师范大学 地理测绘与城乡规划学院，江苏 徐州 221116；2．中国矿业大学 环境与测绘学院，江苏 徐州 221116）
• 出版日期:2018-03-05 发布日期:2018-03-05
• 作者简介:李保杰（1979－），男，汉族，江苏丰县人，讲师，博士，主要从事GIS应用与景观生态方面的研究，（E-mail）liboje@126.com。
• 基金资助:
江苏省高校自然科学研究项目资助（14KJB170004）；徐州市科技计划项目（KC16SS089）；江苏高校哲学社会科学研究项目（2016SJB630082）

Simulation of Land Use Change in Coal Mining Area under Different Scenarios based on the CLUE-S model: A Case Study of Jiawang Mining Area in Xuzhou City

LI Baojie1,2，GU Hehe2，JI Yazhou1,2

1. （1．School of Geography，Geomatics and Planning，Jiangsu Normal University，Xuzhou 221116，China；2．School of Environment Science and Spatial Informatics，China University of Mining and Technology，Xuzhou 221116，China）
• Online:2018-03-05 Published:2018-03-05

Abstract: Mining of mineral resources in China have contributed a lot to the economic boom for the past years. However, it produced many ecological and environmental problems as well. In recent years, land reclamation and ecological reconstruction in mining area has become an important solution to solve the confliction between the natural supply and human’s demand of land, improve ecological environment and ensure regional sustainable development. Evaluation of landscape pattern changes and ecological effects driven by coal mining is of great importance to keep ecosystem balance, sustainable utilization of land resources and coal resources green mining from local to regional scales. Based on the background above, The authors adopted CLUE-S model to simulate land-use distribution in 2016 which is set up through incorporating components describing the spatial autocorrelation into a classic logistic model by choosing policy factors, natural environment factors, socioeconomic factors, space constraint factors et al based on landscape disturbance index and landscape fragility with the landsat images in 1986, 1996, 2006 and 2016. Then three scenarios of land-use spatial allocation in Jiawang mining area in 2026, namely, trend development scenario, economic-oriented scenario and ecologically-oriented scenario were established through designing different restrictions on land-use transition when running CLUE-S model in GIS environment. The results show that: 1) The ROC values of five land use types under Auto-Logistic regression were all greater than those of traditional Logistic regression, which showed that the Auto-Logistic regression model was effective and the driving factors chosen could better explain land use change in the study area. The kappa index was 0.83 in simulation of the spatial of land use of 2016, which indicated that the model and the parameters can be used to forecast the future spatial distribution of land use in Jiawang mining area. 2) the construction land would increase ceaselessly，but unutilized land continued to declining under each scenario．Under ecological protection scenario, the expansion of construction land would be restricted due to the preservation of forest land and water resource. The study conclusions will provide data reference and basic information of decision support for watershed future land use planning, management and policy-making. 3) In the future research of LUCC simulation, this study set up three different situations according to the actual situation in the study area, the simulation results could provide some decision-making guidelines for the land use planning revision and future urban planning layout of Jiawang mining area, and it also would provide reference for the similar type research in the future.