热带地理 ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 274-281.doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003029

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于CLUE_S模型的矿区土地利用变化情景模拟——以徐州市贾汪矿区为例

李保杰1,2,顾和和2,纪亚洲1,2   

  1. (1.江苏师范大学 地理测绘与城乡规划学院,江苏 徐州 221116;2.中国矿业大学 环境与测绘学院,江苏 徐州 221116)
  • 出版日期:2018-03-05 发布日期:2018-03-05
  • 作者简介:李保杰(1979-),男,汉族,江苏丰县人,讲师,博士,主要从事GIS应用与景观生态方面的研究,(E-mail)liboje@126.com。
  • 基金资助:
    江苏省高校自然科学研究项目资助(14KJB170004);徐州市科技计划项目(KC16SS089);江苏高校哲学社会科学研究项目(2016SJB630082)

Simulation of Land Use Change in Coal Mining Area under Different Scenarios based on the CLUE-S model: A Case Study of Jiawang Mining Area in Xuzhou City

LI Baojie1,2,GU Hehe2,JI Yazhou1,2   

  1. (1.School of Geography,Geomatics and Planning,Jiangsu Normal University,Xuzhou 221116,China;2.School of Environment Science and Spatial Informatics,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,China)
  • Online:2018-03-05 Published:2018-03-05

摘要: 以徐州市贾汪矿区1986、1996、2006和2016年4期遥感影像为数据源,基于CLUE-S模型,在传统Logistics回归模型的基础上引入空间自相关因子形成Autologistic回归模型,选取政策、自然环境、社会经济和空间约束等因素,对贾汪矿区2016年土地利用空间分布格局进行模拟以检验精度。在此基础上对研究区2026年趋势发展、经济发展和生态保护3种情景下的土地利用空间分布格局进行了模拟。结果表明:1)Autologistic回归模型在土地利用情景模拟过程中能够更好地反映真实的土地利用格局;2)研究区2016-2026年不同情景下,建设用地在3种情景下均呈现明显的增加趋势,未利用地面积持续减少,其中经济发展情景下建设用的增幅最大,生态保护用地情景下建设用地增幅最小,在生态保护情景下,林地、耕地等生态用地受到保护,建设用地的扩展速度被抑制。 关键词:土地利用变化;CLUE-S模型;Autologistic回归模型;情景模拟;贾汪矿区

关键词: 土地利用变化, CLUE-S模型, Autologistic回归模型, 情景模拟, 贾汪矿区

Abstract: Mining of mineral resources in China have contributed a lot to the economic boom for the past years. However, it produced many ecological and environmental problems as well. In recent years, land reclamation and ecological reconstruction in mining area has become an important solution to solve the confliction between the natural supply and human’s demand of land, improve ecological environment and ensure regional sustainable development. Evaluation of landscape pattern changes and ecological effects driven by coal mining is of great importance to keep ecosystem balance, sustainable utilization of land resources and coal resources green mining from local to regional scales. Based on the background above, The authors adopted CLUE-S model to simulate land-use distribution in 2016 which is set up through incorporating components describing the spatial autocorrelation into a classic logistic model by choosing policy factors, natural environment factors, socioeconomic factors, space constraint factors et al based on landscape disturbance index and landscape fragility with the landsat images in 1986, 1996, 2006 and 2016. Then three scenarios of land-use spatial allocation in Jiawang mining area in 2026, namely, trend development scenario, economic-oriented scenario and ecologically-oriented scenario were established through designing different restrictions on land-use transition when running CLUE-S model in GIS environment. The results show that: 1) The ROC values of five land use types under Auto-Logistic regression were all greater than those of traditional Logistic regression, which showed that the Auto-Logistic regression model was effective and the driving factors chosen could better explain land use change in the study area. The kappa index was 0.83 in simulation of the spatial of land use of 2016, which indicated that the model and the parameters can be used to forecast the future spatial distribution of land use in Jiawang mining area. 2) the construction land would increase ceaselessly,but unutilized land continued to declining under each scenario.Under ecological protection scenario, the expansion of construction land would be restricted due to the preservation of forest land and water resource. The study conclusions will provide data reference and basic information of decision support for watershed future land use planning, management and policy-making. 3) In the future research of LUCC simulation, this study set up three different situations according to the actual situation in the study area, the simulation results could provide some decision-making guidelines for the land use planning revision and future urban planning layout of Jiawang mining area, and it also would provide reference for the similar type research in the future.

Key words: CLUE-S model, Autologistic regression model, Jiawang coal mining area, scenario simulation