关键词: 土地利用变化, CLUE-S模型, Autologistic回归模型, 情景模拟, 贾汪矿区

Abstract: Mining of mineral resources in China have contributed a lot to the economic boom for the past years. However, it produced many ecological and environmental problems as well. In recent years, land reclamation and ecological reconstruction in mining area has become an important solution to solve the confliction between the natural supply and human’s demand of land, improve ecological environment and ensure regional sustainable development. Evaluation of landscape pattern changes and ecological effects driven by coal mining is of great importance to keep ecosystem balance, sustainable utilization of land resources and coal resources green mining from local to regional scales. Based on the background above, The authors adopted CLUE-S model to simulate land-use distribution in 2016 which is set up through incorporating components describing the spatial autocorrelation into a classic logistic model by choosing policy factors, natural environment factors, socioeconomic factors, space constraint factors et al based on landscape disturbance index and landscape fragility with the landsat images in 1986, 1996, 2006 and 2016. Then three scenarios of land-use spatial allocation in Jiawang mining area in 2026, namely, trend development scenario, economic-oriented scenario and ecologically-oriented scenario were established through designing different restrictions on land-use transition when running CLUE-S model in GIS environment. The results show that: 1) The ROC values of five land use types under Auto-Logistic regression were all greater than those of traditional Logistic regression, which showed that the Auto-Logistic regression model was effective and the driving factors chosen could better explain land use change in the study area. The kappa index was 0.83 in simulation of the spatial of land use of 2016, which indicated that the model and the parameters can be used to forecast the future spatial distribution of land use in Jiawang mining area. 2) the construction land would increase ceaselessly，but unutilized land continued to declining under each scenario．Under ecological protection scenario, the expansion of construction land would be restricted due to the preservation of forest land and water resource. The study conclusions will provide data reference and basic information of decision support for watershed future land use planning, management and policy-making. 3) In the future research of LUCC simulation, this study set up three different situations according to the actual situation in the study area, the simulation results could provide some decision-making guidelines for the land use planning revision and future urban planning layout of Jiawang mining area, and it also would provide reference for the similar type research in the future.

Key words: CLUE-S model, Autologistic regression model, Jiawang coal mining area, scenario simulation