城市能源消费碳排放特征及其机理分析
——以广州市为例

doi:10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003078

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 采用表观能源消费数据进行分能源品种和分行业类型的碳排放总量核算，利用基于IDA理论和Kaya恒等式的LMDI模型对碳排放总量变化进行多要素的分解分析，在解析人口规模效应、经济产出效应、能源强度效应对碳排放影响机理的同时，进一步纳入人口结构性因素、产业结构性因素和能源结构性因素对碳排放的影响。以广州市为例，对其2003—2013年产业活动和居民消费2个部门碳排放的主要驱动因素进行时间序列分析，并定量研究各个影响因子在2003—2005、2005—2010和2010—2013年3个不同发展阶段的作用机理，主要研究结论如下：1）广州市能源消费及其碳排放前期以煤炭为主，近年来以石油为主，同时外购电力对广州市的能源消费结构优化影响显著。2）各影响因子对广州市碳排放总量变化的作用机理与影响机制在3个发展阶段各不相同，不同发展阶段的发展措施和政策背景对于各个影响因子的碳排放效应影响显著。3）总体分析，经济产出效应和人口规模效应是产业部门碳排放增长的最主要贡献因子；工业能源消费强度效应、工业能源消费结构效应和经济结构效应是遏制产业部门碳排放增长的最主要贡献因子。城镇居民收入效应是居民消费碳排放增长的最主要贡献因子，城镇居民能源消费强度效应是遏制居民消费碳排放增长的最主要贡献因子。

关键词: 能源消费, 碳排放, LMDI, 广州市

Abstract: Cities are the main sources of carbon emissions throughout the world, which are also the major components in the implementation of carbon mitigation measures. Examining and understanding the features and drivers of carbon emissions in cities is considered a fundamental step for implementing “low carbon city” strategies and actions. Based on the apparent energy consumption data, a systematic and comprehensive city-level total carbon accounting approach was established and applied in Guangzhou City. A newly extended LMDI method based on the Kaya identity was adopted to examine the main drivers for carbon emissions increments both at the industrial sectors and the residential sectors. Economic, population and energy data were collected from the Guangdong Province Statistical Yearbook (2004-2014) and Guangzhou City Statistical Yearbook (2004-2014). The main contribution of our paper is providing an in depth analysis of energy-related carbon emissions at city level considering multiple factors in regional China. This paper also provides temporal variations in the influence factors of carbon emission over a period between 2003 and 2013. Research results show that coal consumption was still the main contributor to energy-related carbon emissions during the whole research period, while oil consumption played relatively important and positive effect on energy consumption structure optimization and carbon emissions mitigation. In addition, imported electricity played an important role in the energy consumption system in Guangzhou. Manufacturing industries and service industries were the main carbon emitting sectors in Guangzhou during the period from 2003 to 2014. Contributions of manufacturing industries for carbon emissions decreased gradually, while contributions of service industries for carbon emissions performed an increasing trend in recent years. The influences and impacts of various driving factors on industrial and residential carbon emissions are different in the three different development periods, namely, the 10th five-year plan period (2003-2005), the 11th five-year plan period (2005-2010), and the 12th five-year plan period (2010-2013). Affluence effect was the dominant positive effect in driving emissions increase, while energy intensity effect of production, economic structure effect and carbon intensity effect of production were the main contributing factors suppressing emissions growth at the industrial sector. Affluence effect of urban areas was the most dominant positive driving factor on emissions increment, while energy intensity effect of urban areas played the most important role in curbing emissions growth at the residential sector. Solving these issues effectively will be of great help for Guangzhou’s sustainable development.

Key words: energy consumption, carbon emissions, LMDI, Guangzhou City

王长建，张虹鸥，汪菲，叶玉瑶，吴康敏，徐茜，杜志威. 城市能源消费碳排放特征及其机理分析 ——以广州市为例[J]. 热带地理, 2018, 38(6): 759-770.

WANG Changjian, ZHANG Hong’ou, WANG Fei, YE Yuyao, WU Kangmin, XU Qian, DU Zhiwei. Features and Influencing Factors of Energy-related Carbon Emissions in Mega City： A Case Study of Guangzhou[J]. TROPICAL GEOGRAPHY, 2018, 38(6): 759-770.

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城市能源消费碳排放特征及其机理分析 ——以广州市为例

Features and Influencing Factors of Energy-related Carbon Emissions in Mega City： A Case Study of Guangzhou

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