1950—2014年印度粮食单产对气候变化的响应

doi:10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003091

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用1950—2014年印度粮食单产统计资料及气候变化资料，从实证的角度，定量分析了小麦、水稻单产对气候的年际变化和年代内趋势性变化的响应。结果表明：1）年际变化方面，粮食单产与降水量和雨日数呈显著正相关，与温度和潜在蒸发量呈显著负相关，其中小麦单产与四者的相关系数分别为0.35（P＜0.01）、0.24（P＜0.10）、-0.32（P＜0.05）和-0.41（P＜0.001），水稻的相关系数分别为0.32（P＜0.05）、0.32（P＜0.05）、-0.26（P＜0.05）和-0.33（P＜0.01）。这表明，高温、少雨导致的水分胁迫不利于粮食增产。2）在年代内趋势性变化方面，1996—2005年印度气候呈现暖、干化趋势，全国平均粮食单产呈下降趋势；从变化速率的空间分异看，单产下降速率与暖、干化速率的空间分异规律基本吻合，单产快（慢）速下降区域与降水量快（慢）速减少、潜在蒸发量快（慢）速增加区域基本一致。水稻和小麦单产变化速率与降水量变化速率的空间分异均呈正相关，与潜在蒸发量变化速率的空间分异均呈负相关。由此表明，降水减少和温度升高导致的水分胁迫是印度粮食单产时空变化的主要气象成因。

关键词: 印度, 水稻, 小麦, 粮食单产, 气候变化

Abstract: Using the ground measurements of crop yield and instrumental climate data during 1950-2014, we studied the responses of crop yield to inter-annual climate variability and to climate change trend within decade. The results demonstrate that inter-annual crop yield variability was positively correlated with precipitation (P) and rainfall days (Rd). There were correlation coefficients of 0.35 (P<0.10) and 0.24 (P<0.10) between wheat yield (Wy) and P and Rd, respectively. The correlation coefficients were all 0.32 (P<0.05) between rice yield (Ry) and P and Rd. However, the inter-annual crop yield variability was negatively correlated with temperature (T) and Potential Evapotranspiration (PE). Between Wy and T, PE, there were correlation coefficients of -0.32 (P<0.05) and -0.41 (P<0.001), respectively; and, for the Ry, the correlation coefficients were -0.26 (P<0.05) and -0.33 (P<0.01), respectively. In the sights of climate change trend within decade, the national mean crop yield exhibited a decreasing trend during 1996-2005, during which the climate changes were characterized by drying and warming trend. Moreover, the spatial variability of crop yield changes was correlated with that of climate changes. The spatial variability of Ry changes was positively correlated with that of P and Rd changes (R=0.24, P<0.001; R=0.11, P<0.05), respectively and were negatively positively correlated with that of T and PE changes (R=-0.13, P<0.01; R=-0.33, P<0.001). The spatial variability of Wy changes was as well as positively correlated with that of P changes (R=0.18, P<0.001) and was negatively correlated with that of PE changes (R=-0.12, P<0.05). Abovementioned findings suggest that moisture is the dominant meteorology factor that determines the variations of crop yield in India. Even though India has developed agriculture irrigation infrastructure, crop yield would be below normal as a response to the climate conditions of less moisture and higher temperature.

Key words: India, rice, wheat, crop yield, climate changes

张学珍，许越，李侠祥，张丽娟. 1950—2014年印度粮食单产对气候变化的响应[J]. 热带地理, 2018, 38(6): 828-835.

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