南沙他国侵占岛礁战略价值及空间格局评价

doi:10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003243

热带地理 ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (4): 684-693.doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003243

南沙他国侵占岛礁战略价值及空间格局评价

闵开付¹(), 程亮¹^,²^,³^,⁴(), 周晓¹, 夏南¹, 李宁¹, 李满春¹^,²^,³^,⁴

^1.，南京大学地理与海洋科学学院//自然资源部国土卫星遥感应用重点实验室//江苏省地理信息技术重点实验室，南京 210023
^2.，中国南海研究协同创新中心，南京 210023
^3.，江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心，南京 210023
^4.，江苏省软件新技术与产业化协同创新中心，南京 210023

收稿日期:2020-02-15 修回日期:2020-04-03 出版日期:2020-07-31 发布日期:2020-08-11
通讯作者: 程亮 E-mail:mg1827066@smail.nju.edu.cn;lcheng@nju.edu.cn
作者简介:闵开付（1995—），男，重庆云阳人，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为南海遥感，（E-mail）mg1827066@smail.nju.edu.cn；
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFB0504205);国家自然科学基金(41622109)

Strategic and Spatial Pattern Assessments of Spratly Islands Occupied by Foreign Countries

Kaifu Min¹(), Liang Cheng¹^,²^,³^,⁴(), Xiao Zhou¹, Nan Xia¹, Ning Li¹, Manchun Li¹^,²^,³^,⁴

^1.School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University//Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources//Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210023, China, Nanjing 210023, China
^2.Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, Nanjing 210023, China
^3.Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China
^4.Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Novel Software Technology and Industrialization, Nanjing 210023, China

Received:2020-02-15 Revised:2020-04-03 Online:2020-07-31 Published:2020-08-11
Contact: Liang Cheng E-mail:mg1827066@smail.nju.edu.cn;lcheng@nju.edu.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

从建岛潜力、岛礁辐射能力和岛礁承载能力3个方面选取26个指标，采用主客观综合赋权法确定各因子权重，利用线性加权法获得被越南、菲律宾、马来西亚、文莱等国所侵占的南沙44个岛礁的战略价值，并对结果进行空间插值，分析其空间格局特征。结果表明：1）被马来西亚侵占的弹丸礁、越南侵占的南威岛、以及菲律宾侵占的中业岛，其战略价值位列前3，评价得分分别为100、98.42和97.09。2）岛礁辐射能力空间分布格局呈现“NW—SE条带式”，“最高”和“高”等级的区域由研究区西北延伸至东南，然后向东北、西南两侧递减，辐射能力格局中有2个核心区域和2个次级核心区域。承载能力空间分布格局呈现“横向条带式”，由北向南越来越低，有1个核心区域和2个次级核心区域。建岛潜力空间分布格局有3个核心区域及2个次级核心区域。3）岛礁战略价值空间分布格局有3个核心区域，分布于研究区中部、北部及南部，与越南、菲律宾、马来西亚密切相关的核心区域各有1个。越南侵占岛礁最多且空间分布较广，有2个次级核心区域也与越南密切相关，越占岛礁若进一步建设，将形成多核心协同的战略格局，需密切关注。

关键词: 南沙群岛, 建岛潜力, 他国侵占, 战略价值, 空间格局

Abstract:

There are up to 44 islands and reefs illegally occupied by foreign countries in the Spratly Islands, that is a serious threat to China's national security. Therefore, the strategic value of the occupied islands and reefs in the Spratly Islands region should be evaluated. Previous studies concentrate on the period before large-scale construction in the region. Additionally, they lack consideration of the islands development potential. Considering this potential, radiation capacity, and carrying capacity, the present study investigated 26 influence factors, their respective assessment values were calculated. The subjective and objective integrated method was used to determine the weight of each factor. The linear weighting method was used to obtain the evaluation results of the strategic value of 44 islands and reefs occupied by Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei. The results were spatially interpolated to identify their spatial pattern characteristics. The main results are as follows: 1) The strategic value evaluation of islands and reefs shows the gradient distribution characteristics. The Danwanjiao reef occupied by Malaysia, Nanweidao Island occupied by Vietnam, and Zhongyedao Island occupied by the Philippines are the ones with highest strategic value, and their evaluation values are 100, 98.42, and 97.09, respectively. The islands and reefs with lower strategic value were mainly sandbars and hidden shoals, such as the Orleana Shoal and Bombay Castle, with scores of less than 40. 2) The strategic value, radiation capacity, carrying capacity, and construction potential of islands and reefs all have a multi-core spatial distribution pattern, in which the spatial distribution pattern of their radiation capacity is the "NW-SE band", the areas of highest and high grades extend from northwest to southeast of the study area and decrease to both sides (northeast and southwest). There are two core regions and two secondary core regions in the pattern of radiation capacity. The spatial distribution pattern of carrying capacity shows a "horizontal strip", which decreases from north to south, in which there is one core region and two secondary core regions. There are three core regions and two secondary core regions in the spatial distribution pattern of island potential and strategic value of islands and reefs. 3) Vietnam occupies the most islands and reefs and has a wide spatial distribution. In the spatial distribution pattern of strategic value of islands and reefs, there is one core region and two secondary core regions closely related to Vietnam. Bishengjiao, Liumenjiao, Nanhuajiao, Wumiejiao, and West reefs are occupied by Vietnam and have a great potential for building islands and reefs, as their geographical location is of great strategic significance. Further construction would support the core areas of islands and reefs occupied by Vietnam, which could lead to a pincer attack on China's garrison islands and reefs, thereby requiring close attention.

Key words: Spratly Islands, potential of island construction, occupied by foreign countries, strategic value, spatial pattern

中图分类号:

闵开付, 程亮, 周晓, 夏南, 李宁, 李满春. 南沙他国侵占岛礁战略价值及空间格局评价[J]. 热带地理, 2020, 40(4): 684-693.

Kaifu Min, Liang Cheng, Xiao Zhou, Nan Xia, Ning Li, Manchun Li. Strategic and Spatial Pattern Assessments of Spratly Islands Occupied by Foreign Countries[J]. Tropical Geography, 2020, 40(4): 684-693.

图/表 6

图1

图2

表1

岛礁战略价值评价指标因子描述"

准则层	要素层	指标层	类型	指标描述
辐射能力	军事辐射力	机场建设级别	正向	遥感影像目视解译机场跑道长度作为指标数值
	军事辐射力	港口建设级别	正向	遥感影像目视解译港口面积大小作为指标数值
	民事辐射力	海上搜救可达时间/h	逆向	以岛礁为搜救点，考虑风、浪等，设定统一航行速度，计算南海海域的搜救可达时间（Zhou, 2019）
	民事辐射力	覆盖事故高发区范围/km2	正向	以岛礁为搜救点，考虑风、浪等，设定统一航行速度，计算12 h内搜救可达区域覆盖事故高发区范围
	航道辐射力	距重要航道距离/km	逆向	基于AIS数据提取航道，计算各岛礁到重要航道距离
		距一般航道距离/km	逆向	基于AIS数据提取航道，计算各岛礁到一般航道距离
		距周边海峡距离/km	逆向	各岛礁到周边海峡的平均距离
	油气辐射力	石油辐射力	正向	若岛礁在油气盆地内，则以盆地石油储量作为指标值；若不在，则以距岛礁最近的盆地石油储量除以距离作为指标值
	油气辐射力	天然气辐射力	正向	同石油辐射力
承载能力	资源承载力	建设面积/km2	正向	遥感影像目视解译岛礁人造地表的面积作为指标值
		建筑占地面积/km2	正向	遥感影像目视解译岛礁建筑的占地面积作为指标值
		礁坪面积/km2	正向	岛礁礁坪是高潮时淹没，低潮时大部分露出水面的礁体部分（赵焕庭等，1996；王新志等，2017），将其面积作为此指标数值
		有无淡水	正向	岛礁上有无淡水资源，分别赋值1、0
	环境承载力	植被覆盖率	正向	影像目视解译植被覆盖面积，其岛礁礁坪出露面积比值
	环境承载力	潟湖面积/km2	正向	礁坪环绕的潟湖所占区域（赵焕庭等，1996）面积为此因子数值
	能源供给力	风能潜力/(W·m^-2)	正向	根据风场、海平面温度数据及风功率密度计算模型（Cavazzi et al., 2016; Rusu, 2019），得到0.125°格网的风能潜力数据，通过叠置分析得到岛礁的潜力值
		波浪能潜力/(kW·m^-1)	正向	根据波浪数据及波浪能计算模型（Mirzaei et al., 2015; Yaakob et al., 2016; Bento et al., 2018），得到0.125°格网的波能潜力数据，通过叠置分析得到岛礁的潜力值
		太阳能潜力/kWh	正向	根据高分影像和阴影生成建筑LOD1级三维模型，并用太阳能潜力计算模型（Fu et al, 2002）计算岛礁太阳能潜力
建岛潜力	礁盘平面特征	礁盘面积/km2	正向	影像上与周围海水具有明显反差的礁体部分面积
		礁盘长度/km	正向	礁盘最长轴的长度，反映机场跑道建设潜力
		发育指数	正向	岛礁发育指数＝礁坪面积/礁盘面积（刘宝银等，2000）
	水下地形特征	水深/m	逆向	基于岛礁水下地形反演数据，计算岛礁平均水深
		坡度	逆向	基于岛礁水下地形反演数据，计算水下地形坡度平均值
		粗糙度	逆向	粗糙度定量描述了地形的起伏程度（Smith, 2014）。按岛礁水下地形数据，计算岛礁水下地形粗糙度，取其平均值
		切割深度/m	逆向	切割深度指某点邻域的平均与最小高程的差值，反映地形侵蚀程度（赵斯琦等，2018）。按岛礁水下地形数据，计算岛礁水下地形切割深度，取其平均值
		建岛填方量/km3	逆向	基于岛礁水下地形数据，及模拟的填岛标高，利用ArcGIS的Cut Fill功能计算建岛填方量

表1

图 3

表2

图4

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排名	名称	侵占国	分值	排名	名称	侵占国	分值	排名	名称	侵占国	分值
1	弹丸礁	马来西亚	100	16	南海礁	马来西亚	56.04	31	西月岛	菲律宾	42.98
2	南威岛	越南	98.42	17	六门礁	越南	55.98	32	南通礁	文莱	42.04
3	中业岛	菲律宾	97.09	18	日积礁	越南	55.98	33	琼礁	越南	41.50
4	西礁	越南	82.98	19	敦谦沙洲	越南	54.67	34	舶兰礁	越南	39.39
5	南子岛	越南	82.84	20	染青沙洲	越南	54.49	35	马欢岛	菲律宾	39.10
6	景宏岛	越南	72.51	21	无乜礁	越南	54.02	36	万安滩	越南	34.02
7	簸箕礁	马来西亚	67.06	22	榆亚暗沙	马来西亚	52.87	37	广雅滩	越南	33.77
8	鸿庥岛	越南	66.28	23	安波沙洲	越南	52.27	38	费信岛	菲律宾	32.10
9	东礁	越南	65.59	24	南钥岛	菲律宾	51.39	39	西卫滩	越南	31.71
10	中礁	越南	63.99	25	司令礁	菲律宾	50.57	40	李准滩	越南	31.11
11	毕生礁	越南	63.45	26	光星礁	马来西亚	49.54	41	金盾暗沙	越南	29.06
12	大现礁	越南	63.15	27	光星仔礁	马来西亚	47.44	42	人骏滩	越南	28.80
13	南华礁	越南	61.80	28	奈罗礁	越南	47.41	43	奥南暗沙	越南	28.17
14	柏礁	越南	59.38	29	双黄沙洲	菲律宾	46.58	44	蓬勃堡	越南	23.17
15	北子岛	菲律宾	56.53	30	鬼喊礁	越南	45.22

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南沙他国侵占岛礁战略价值及空间格局评价

Strategic and Spatial Pattern Assessments of Spratly Islands Occupied by Foreign Countries

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