热带地理 ›› 2021, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (2): 374-387.doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003335

• 农业地理 • 上一篇    

中国柑橘生产空间变迁及其驱动因素

林正雨1,2(), 陈强2, 邓良基2, 李晓1, 何鹏1, 廖桂堂2, 费建波2   

  1. 1.四川省农业科学院 农业信息与农村经济研究所,成都 610066
    2.四川农业大学 资源学院,成都 611130
  • 收稿日期:2020-07-01 修回日期:2020-10-13 出版日期:2021-04-27 发布日期:2021-04-27
  • 作者简介:林正雨(1982—),男,四川自贡人,副研究员,主要从事农业资源利用与区域农业发展研究,(E-mail)1456875524@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    四川省杰出青年科技人才项目——四川经济作物时空格局变化及响应机制研究(2020JDJQ0073);四川省农业科学院青年领军人才项目——四川省柑橘空间的时空格局及响应机制研究(2019LJRC021);四川省财政创新能力提升工程——四川特色水果适宜性评价及布局优化研究(2018QNJJ010)

Spatial Pattern Changes and Driving Factors of Citrus Production in China

Zhengyu Lin1,2(), Qiang Chen2, Liangji Deng2, Xiao Li1, Peng He1, Guitang Liao2, Jianbo Fei2   

  1. 1.Institute of Agricultural Information and Rural Economy, Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Science, Chengdu 610066, China
    2.College of Resources, Sichuan Agriculture University, Chengdu 611130, China
  • Received:2020-07-01 Revised:2020-10-13 Online:2021-04-27 Published:2021-04-27

摘要:

综合运用产业集中度、探索性数据分析(ESDA)、产业重心模型、空间杜宾模型等方法对中国柑橘生产空间演变特征,以及驱动因素进行实证分析。结果显示:1978-2015年中国柑橘生产空间呈现扩张态势,可分为急剧增长期(1978-1991年)、低速增长期(1992-2000年)、稳步增长期(2001-2015年)。中国柑橘生产空间主要集中在西南地区、中南地区、华东地区,具有“北冷南热”的空间结构。柑橘生产空间在省域尺度上具有显著的正向空间自相关特征,呈现显著的地理集聚现象,且集聚呈现先急剧下降,其后再波动上升的变化过程。自2000年起,生产空间重心持续性向西南向迁移,“西移南扩”的迁移趋势明显。中国柑橘生产空间从最初的自然驱动,逐步转向为“自然-社会”驱动。自然资源禀赋决定着中国柑橘生产的基础空间,社会经济因素是柑橘生产空间变迁的重要原因。在市场区位因素中,道路运输、水果消费对柑橘生产空间存在显著的正向效应,路网密度提高,提升了产区的经济区位,居民收入的提高扩大了柑橘消费需求,因此每提高1%,柑橘面积分别增加0.192%和0.107%。在生产要素中,劳动力投入、水利灌溉对柑橘生产空间存在正向效应,每提高1%,柑橘面积分别增加0.934%和0.094%。在社会经济因素中,非农就业机会引起的农村劳动力流失,对柑橘生产空间存在强烈的负向效应,每提高1%,柑橘面积减少1.365%。科技进步带来的新品种、新技术对柑橘生产空间存在正向效应,每提高1%,柑橘面积增加0.058%。人均粮食占有量的直接效应为负向效应,间接效应为正向效应,意味着在分配有限土地资源的博弈中,本地土地首先要满足粮食安全,因此抑制柑橘面积增加。而邻近地区人均粮食占有量的提高,通过粮食流通能够满足本地粮食安全,促进柑橘面积增加。

关键词: 柑橘, 时空格局, 空间分异, 驱动机制, 中国

Abstract:

Citrus is an important agricultural product in China and globally, and citrus production in China plays a vital role in global citrus patterns; specifically, spatial changes in these patterns affect the supply of citrus in China and have an important impact on the international citrus trade. In this study, the industrial concentration, exploratory data analysis, industrial gravity model, and spatial Durbin model were used to analyze the spatial evolution characteristics of and factors driving citrus production in China. The results showed that, from 1978 to 2015, China's citrus production space showed an expanding trend, which could be divided into a rapid growth period (1978-1991), low growth period (1992-2000), and steady growth period (2001-2015). The citrus production space in China is mainly concentrated in Southwest, Central South, and East China, with a spatial structure of "cold in the north and hot in the South." Citrus production space has a significant positive spatial autocorrelation on the provincial scale, showing a significant geographical agglomeration; the agglomeration first drops sharply, following which it fluctuates and rises. Since 2000, the center of the production space has continuously moved to the Southwest; the trend of "moving to the West and expanding to the South" is evident. China's citrus production space has gradually changed from the original natural drive to the "natural society" drive. The endowment of natural resources determines the basic space of citrus production in China, where social and economic factors are important reasons for changes in citrus production space. Among the market location factors, road transportation and fruit consumption significantly affect the citrus production space positively. The increase in road network density improves the economic location of the production area, and the increase in residents' incomes expands the demand for citrus consumption; therefore, for each 1% increase in road network density and income, the citrus area increases by 0.192% and 0.107%, respectively. Among the production factors, labor input and water conservancy irrigation have positive effects on citrus production space; with a 1% increase in these factors, the citrus area increases by 0.934% and 0.094%, respectively. Regarding social and economic factors, the loss of rural labor as a result of non-agricultural employment opportunities has a strong negative effect on the production space of citrus. The citrus area is reduced by 1.365% for each 1% increase. New varieties and new technologies brought about by scientific and technological progress positively affect citrus production space, and the citrus area increases by 0.058% for every 1% increase in this factor. The direct effect of per capita grain possession is negative, and the indirect effect is positive, indicating that with regard allocating limited land resources, local land must first meet the food security and inhibit the increase in citrus area. The increase in the per capita share in neighboring areas can meet the local food security and promote the increase of citrus area through food circulation.

Key words: citrus, spatio-temporal pattern, spatial differentiation, driving mechanism, China

中图分类号: 

  • F323.1