热带地理 ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (3): 397-409.doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003138
刘晓娟1,黎 夏2,梁 迅1,石 洪1,欧金沛1
收稿日期:
2019-02-19
修回日期:
2019-05-01
出版日期:
2019-05-05
发布日期:
2019-05-05
通讯作者:
黎夏(1962—),男,广西梧州人,教授,主要研究方向为元胞自动机、土地利用变化模拟,(E-mail)lixia@mail.sysu.edu.cn。
作者简介:
刘晓娟(1994—),女,江西吉安人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为土地利用变化、生态服务价值,(E-mail)liuxj58@mail2.sysu.edu.cn;
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划(2017YFA06044002);国家自然科学基金(41531176、41801304)
Liu Xiaojuan1, Li Xia2, Liang Xun1, Shi Hong1 and Ou Jinpei1
Received:
2019-02-19
Revised:
2019-05-01
Online:
2019-05-05
Published:
2019-05-05
摘要:
基于代表性浓度路径情景(Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs),耦合FLUS-InVEST(Future Land Use Simulation-Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs, FLUS-InVEST)模型,以土地利用视角模拟了中国2100年的陆地生态系统碳储量,探讨其空间分异。结果表明:1)历史土地利用变化作用下,中国生态系统碳储量减少中心由华北地区转向东北地区,增加中心由西北地区转向西南地区;碳储量的减少由林地生态系统转向草地生态系统。2)未来RCPs情景下,中国林地生态系统碳储量都将持续增加,草地生态系统碳储量持续减少。RCP 6.0情景下,中国林地面积将增加9.43%左右,草地面积减少5.42%,全国林地碳储量较2010年增加2 332.64 Tg,而草地碳储量将损失1 719.03 Tg。在RCP 8.5情景下,全国林地面积增加5.15%,草地面积将减少5.10%,林地碳储量较2010年将增加1 754.59 Tg,草地碳储量将损失2 468.80 Tg。3)RCP 6.0情景对未来碳汇贡献度较RCP 8.5情景大。在RCP 6.0情景下,植被地上碳储量和表层土壤碳储量分别净增加127.12和83.67 Tg。但在RCP 8.5情景下,植被地上碳储量和表层土壤碳储量分别净减少24.67和32.41 Tg。4)不同RCPs情景下,碳储量增长均集中在横断山—秦岭—太行山—大兴安岭和雪峰山—太行山—大兴安岭两带;减少区域主要分布于云贵高原、四川盆地和京津冀地区。
刘晓娟,黎夏,梁迅,石洪,欧金沛. 基于FLUS-InVEST模型的中国未来土地利用变化及其对碳储量影响的模拟[J]. 热带地理, 2019, 39(3): 397-409.
Liu Xiaojuan,Li Xia,Liang Xun,Shi Hong and Ou Jinpei. Simulating the Change of Terrestrial Carbon Storage in China Based on the FLUS-InVEST Model[J]. TROPICAL GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 39(3): 397-409.
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