›› 1989, Vol. 9 ›› Issue (2): 97-107.

• 论文 •    下一篇

广东省城镇化的特点和发展水平预测

魏清泉1, 黄瑞军2   

  1. 1. 中山大学地理系;
    2. 广州市房地产管理局
  • 出版日期:1989-04-30 发布日期:1989-04-30

CHARACTERISTICS AND FORECAST OF URBANIZATION PROCESS IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE

Wei Qingquan1, Huang Ruijun2   

  1. 1. Department of Geography, Zhongshan University;
    2. Guangzhou Bureau of Real Estate Management
  • Online:1989-04-30 Published:1989-04-30

摘要: 本文采用时间序列趋势分析、因果趋势分析、剩余劳动力转移分析等方法分别对2000年广东省的总人口、城镇人口及城镇化水平进行预测和综合论证.作者预测,到本世纪末广东省城镇化水平将达到38%.

关键词: 广东省, 城镇化, 城镇化水平预测, 城镇人口, 剩余劳动力转移

Abstract: The level of urbanization in Guangdong,analogous to that of the whole country in terms of development stage,is still low.The regional difference in urbanization is remarkable,cities and towns develop inequally.This paper analysed the influence of economic development,employment structure of labour force,capacity of cities and towns absorbing labour force population density,land resources and some othes factors upon the urbanization process in Guangdong.By using the analysis of time-series tendency,cause-effect and the conversion of surplus rural labour force,the level of urbanization of the province are predicted to go up to 38 percent by the year 2000.

Key words: Guangdong province, Urbanization, Level of urbanization, Urban population, Conversion of surplus labour force