热带地理 ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (3): 329-336.doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003143
张惠雅1,2,黄荣永1bc,2,余克服1bc,2
收稿日期:
2019-02-24
修回日期:
2019-05-23
出版日期:
2019-05-05
发布日期:
2019-05-05
通讯作者:
余克服(1969―),男,湖北公安人,博士,教授,主要从事南海珊瑚礁地质、生态与环境研究,(E-mail)kefuyu@scsio.ac.cn。
作者简介:
张惠雅(1993―),女,广西南宁人,硕士研究生,主要从事珊瑚礁遥感研究,(E-mail)zhanghuiyas@126.com;
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(91428203);广西科技计划项目(AD17129063);广西创新驱动发展专项(AA17204074)
Zhang Huiya1,2, Huang Rongyong1bc,2 and Yu Kefu1bc,2
Received:
2019-02-24
Revised:
2019-05-23
Online:
2019-05-05
Published:
2019-05-05
摘要:
为了更好地理解环境参数对珊瑚礁生态的影响,以涠洲岛为研究区域,结合历史文献所记载的活珊瑚覆盖率(Live Coral Cover, LCC)资料,利用MODIS 2003—2015年遥感观测获取的环境参数,即叶绿素a质量浓度(Chl-a)、海表温度(SST)和光合有效辐射(PAR),探讨LCC变化与环境参数之间的关系,并建立了LCC变化模型。首先计算出每个环境参数3~10个月的移动平均值,并用皮尔逊相关系数计算得到与LCC变化相关性最大的环境参数值;然后考虑环境参数值之间、前后不同年份的LCC之间可能存在的自相关性,利用主成分分析法消除这些自相关之后,再利用非线性约束优化方法估计LCC与环境参数值关系的经验模型。该模型的系数为Chl-a(-0.109 04)、SST(-0.061 62)和PAR(0.013 58),据此推测,人类活动所造成的海水富营养化可能是涠洲岛LCC下降的最主要原因。最后,对涠洲岛珊瑚礁未来的发展与变化进行仿真和预测,结果表明:涠洲岛在环境不变的条件下其LCC会稳定在10%左右,而在当前气候变暖的条件下其珊瑚有可能会在2120年左右存在开始消失的风险。
张惠雅,黄荣永,余克服. 涠洲岛活珊瑚覆盖率变化的仿真分析[J]. 热带地理, 2019, 39(3): 329-336.
Zhang Huiya, Huang Rongyong and Yu Kefu. Simulation of Living Coral Cover Changes around the Weizhou Island[J]. TROPICAL GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 39(3): 329-336.
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