热带地理 ›› 2021, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (6): 1222-1235.doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003399
所属专题: 一带一路
申玉坤1(), 骆华松2, 洪菊花1(
), 梁茂林1, 叶帅3
收稿日期:
2021-03-17
修回日期:
2021-08-08
出版日期:
2021-11-05
发布日期:
2021-11-16
通讯作者:
洪菊花
E-mail:1443301164@qq.com;46020903@qq.com
作者简介:
申玉坤(1997—),男,山东巨野人,博士研究生,主要从事区域合作与地缘安全研究,(E-mail)1443301164@qq.com;
基金资助:
Yukun Shen1(), Huasong Luo2, Juhua Hong1(
), Maolin Liang1, Shuai Ye3
Received:
2021-03-17
Revised:
2021-08-08
Online:
2021-11-05
Published:
2021-11-16
Contact:
Juhua Hong
E-mail:1443301164@qq.com;46020903@qq.com
摘要:
以拉丁美洲33个主权国家为研究对象,从国际、区域、国内3个尺度出发,构建了基于“一带一路”的拉丁美洲地缘风险评价指标体系对其地缘风险予以评价,利用地理探测器对拉丁美洲三大地理区域的地缘风险空间分异格局驱动因子群予以精准识别。结果表明:1)基于“一带一路”的拉丁美洲地缘风险空间异质性显著,地缘风险指数、国际地缘风险、区域地缘风险以及国内地缘风险下的政治风险和生态环境风险均表现为南美洲地区最高,墨西哥及中美洲地区次之,加勒比地区最低的空间格局;国内地缘风险表现为墨西哥及中美洲地区最高,南美洲地区次之,加勒比地区最低;经济风险表现为南美洲地区最高,加勒比地区次之,墨西哥及中美洲地区最低;社会风险表现为加勒比地区最高,南美洲地区次之,墨西哥及中美洲地区最低;双边关系风险表现为墨西哥及中美洲地区最高,加勒比地区次之,南美洲地区最低。2)各因子群对三大地理区域地缘风险空间分异格局的作用力各不相同。对南美洲地区作用力显著的因子群主要有政治风险、国际地缘风险和社会风险等;对墨西哥及中美洲地区作用力显著的因子群主要有经济风险、双边关系风险、国际地缘风险、政治风险等;对加勒比地区作用力较大的因子群主要有社会风险、国际地缘风险、政治风险、双边关系风险等。
中图分类号:
申玉坤, 骆华松, 洪菊花, 梁茂林, 叶帅. 基于“一带一路”的拉丁美洲地缘风险空间分异格局及驱动因素[J]. 热带地理, 2021, 41(6): 1222-1235.
Yukun Shen, Huasong Luo, Juhua Hong, Maolin Liang, Shuai Ye. Spatial Differentiation Pattern and Driving Factors of Geo-Risk in Latin America Based on the "Belt and Road" Initiative[J]. Tropical Geography, 2021, 41(6): 1222-1235.
表2
定量数据来源说明
指标 | 数据来源 |
---|---|
周边国家冲突态势 | Global Peace Index 2020(Institute for Economics & Peace,2020a) |
周边国家恐怖主义活动态势 | Global Terrorism Index 2020(Institute for Economics & Peace,2020b) |
国内冲突态势 | Global Peace Index 2020(Institute for Economics & Peace,2020a) |
国内恐怖主义活动态势 | Global Terrorism Index 2020(Institute for Economics & Peace,2020b) |
国内腐败状况 | Corruption Perceptions Index2020. https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2020/index/nzl(透明国际) |
GDP增长率/% | 国际货币基金组织对2021年各国GDP增长率的预测数据. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/WH/Issues/2020/10/13/regional-economic-outlook-western-hemisphere#ch1 |
营商环境 | Doing Business 2020(World Bank,2019) |
犯罪指数 | 《人类发展指数与指标2018年统计更新》内的每十万人杀人犯罪率(联合国开发计划署,2018) |
难民人数/人 | 联合国难民署. https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics-uat/download/?url=E1ZxP4 |
失业率/% | 《人类发展指数与指标2018年统计更新》内的失业率(联合国开发计划署,2018) |
环境治理水平 | 2020 Environmental Performance Index(耶鲁大学). https://epi.yale.edu/downloads |
气候危机 | Global Climate Risk Index 2021(GERMANWATCH,2021) |
双边经济关系 | 《中国-拉丁美洲与加勒比地区经贸合作进展报告(2019)》(岳云霞,2019)内的中拉双边贸易、金融、投资合作指数之和。 |
表3
定性数据来源及赋值说明
指标 | 资料来源及赋值方法 |
---|---|
美国影响 | 该指标依据美国官方1949—2019年对拉美各国各类援助数据(https://explorer.usaid.gov/data)及美国在拉丁美洲军事基地(樊高月,2014)的分布,采用专家打分法赋值,赋值区间为0~5。 |
领土、领海 争端态势 | 该指标依据《拉丁美洲和平幻象》(David, 2015)附录中所列《拉丁美洲国与国之间尚未解决的争端案例》《拉丁美洲和加勒比发展报告(2018—2019)》(袁东振,2019)和《拉丁美洲和加勒比发展报告(2019—2020)》(袁东振,2020)梳理相关冲突的发展态势,请专家赋值打分,赋值区间为[0, 5]。 |
资源民族主义 | 依据英国维枫公司发布的资源民族主义地图(https://www.maplecroft.com/insights/maplecroft-in-the-media/30-countries-face-higher-resource-nationalism-risk)的层级,采用专家打分法予以赋值,赋值区间为[0, 5] |
民粹主义 | 指标数据源于智利著名智库自由与发展学会(Libertady Desarrllo, 2019)于2019年2月所发布的报告《Auge y crisis de los populismos de izquierda en América Latina》来区分民粹主义国家和非民粹主义国家,民粹主义国家标注为0,非民粹主义国家标注为1。 |
双边政治关系 | 对于已同中国建交的国家,依据外交部网站(https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/gjhdq_676201/gj_676203/yz_676205/)发布的拉美国家相关信息梳理中国同相关国家双边政治关系等级,具体划分如下:1)单纯建交的普通外交关系;2)友好合作伙伴关系;3)战略伙伴关系;4)战略合作伙伴关系;5)全面战略伙伴关系。依据梳理结果请专家对打分赋值,伙伴关系越密切,赋值越高,赋值区间[0, 5]。对于尚未同中国建交仍同台湾当局保持“邦交关系”的国家,依据台湾地区外事部门网站https://www.mofa.gov.tw/梳理2018—2019年相关国家同台湾高层互访次数,然后予以赋值,互访次数越多,赋值越低,赋值区间[0, -5]。 |
对“一带一路” 倡议的态度 | 该指标数据源于中国“一带一路”网,如果目标国同中国签订了共建“一带一路”倡议文件,则标注为1,未签标注为0。 |
表4
基于“一带一路”的拉丁美洲面临地缘风险评价指标权重
目标层 | 准则层 | 指标层 | 熵值法权重( | 专家打分法权重( | 综合权重( |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
国际地缘风险 | 国际地缘风险 | 美国影响 | 0.040 3 | 0.125 0 | 0.151 9 |
区域地缘风险 | 区域地缘风险 | 周边国家冲突态势 | 0.042 5 | 0.065 0 | 0.083 2 |
周边国家恐怖主义活动状况 | 0.052 2 | 0.060 0 | 0.094 3 | ||
领土、领海争端态势 | 0.064 4 | 0.050 0 | 0.097 0 | ||
国内地缘风险 | 政治风险 | 国内冲突态势 | 0.013 3 | 0.080 0 | 0.032 0 |
国内恐怖主义活动态势 | 0.038 7 | 0.030 0 | 0.035 0 | ||
资源民族主义 | 0.110 2 | 0.005 0 | 0.016 6 | ||
民粹主义 | 0.040 8 | 0.040 0 | 0.049 2 | ||
国内腐败状况 | 0.011 6 | 0.020 0 | 0.007 0 | ||
经济风险 | GDP增长率 | 0.023 7 | 0.050 0 | 0.035 7 | |
营商环境 | 0.017 2 | 0.085 0 | 0.044 1 | ||
社会风险 | 犯罪指数 | 0.035 8 | 0.030 0 | 0.032 3 | |
难民人数 | 0.202 0 | 0.010 0 | 0.060 9 | ||
失业率 | 0.023 8 | 0.040 0 | 0.028 6 | ||
生态环境风险 | 环境治理水平 | 0.015 0 | 0.030 0 | 0.013 6 | |
气候变化风险 | 0.168 6 | 0.010 0 | 0.050 8 | ||
双边关系风险 | 双边政治关系 | 0.025 0 | 0.080 0 | 0.060 4 | |
双边经济关系 | 0.005 1 | 0.150 0 | 0.023 2 | ||
对“一带一路”倡议的态度 | 0.069 8 | 0.040 0 | 0.084 2 |
表5
地缘风险空间分异格局的影响因子群地理探测结果
序号 | 风险因子群 | 南美洲地区 | 墨西哥及 中美洲地区 | 加勒比地区 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
q值 | 排序 | q值 | 排序 | q值 | 排序 | ||||
1 | 国际地缘风险因子群 | 0.694 5 | 2 | 0.553 4 | 3 | 0.681 9 | 2 | ||
2 | 区域地缘风险因子群 | 0.441 9 | 5 | 0.049 7 | 7 | 0.139 9 | 5 | ||
3 | 政治风险因子群 | 0.752 6 | 1 | 0.525 1 | 4 | 0.631 3 | 3 | ||
4 | 经济风险因子群 | 0.458 2 | 4 | 0.744 1 | 1 | 0.116 5 | 6 | ||
5 | 社会风险因子群 | 0.591 6 | 3 | 0.083 2 | 6 | 0.693 2 | 1 | ||
6 | 生态环境风险因子群 | 0.320 2 | 6 | 0.109 6 | 5 | 0.076 6 | 7 | ||
7 | 双边关系风险因子群 | 0.246 0 | 7 | 0.603 9 | 2 | 0.383 5 | 4 |
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