热带地理 ›› 2016, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (1): 132-141.doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002793

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

重庆典型山区县人口迁移的 时空分布特征及其影响因素

康维娜1,邵景安1,2,郭 跃1,2   

  1. (1.重庆师范大学 地理与旅游学院,重庆 400047;2.三峡库区地表过程与环境遥感重庆市重点实验室,重庆 400047)
  • 出版日期:2016-01-05 发布日期:2016-01-05
  • 通讯作者: 邵景安(1976―),男,安徽亳州人,研究员,博士,主要从事土地利用与生态过程研究,(E-mail)shao_ja2003@sohu.com。
  • 作者简介:康维娜(1990―),女,四川达州人,硕士,主要从事资源环境与城乡规划研究,(E-mail)kangwn2005@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金委重大国际合作基金(41161140352);教育部人文社科青年基金项目(10YJCZH122)

Spatial-Temporal Distribution and Influence Factors of Population Migration in Typical Mountainous Area,Chongqing

KANG Weina1,SHAO Jing’an1,2,GUO Yue1,2   

  1. (1.School of Geographical Science,Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing 400047,China;2.Key Laboratory of Surface Process and Environment Remote Sensing in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area,Chongqing 400047,China)
  • Online:2016-01-05 Published:2016-01-05

摘要: 将重庆市石柱县2004和2014年各乡镇人口迁移系数、农村人口迁移强度系数设定为衡量指标,借助GIS-ESDA空间分析方法,利用空间关联指数、变差函数、二元Logistic回归等测度模型,分析了2004―2014年该县人口迁移的空间格局演变特征及其影响因素。结果表明:1)近10 a,人口迁移的总体空间格局表现出较强的空间正相关性,空间聚集度不断上升。2)冷热点分布上,人口迁移高值区的集聚趋势明显,低值区仅在局部地区发生微调。冷热点演化上,人口迁移系数的热点区由呈团聚状渐变扩展成呈沿江条带状分布,冷点区未发生大的突变;农村人口迁移强度系数的热点区历经“离散―多核心”的发展变化,冷点区呈现出收缩式跃迁态势。3)总变异中随机性、结构性差异明显,说明人口迁移不均衡性和集聚性逐年递增。4)各内部因素对人口迁移的驱动力大小不一。其中,迁移经历、家庭总收入、劳动力数量、道路连接度的影响最为显著,家庭负担与所在区域地形兼具独特性和复杂性特点。

关键词: 人口迁移, 二元Logistic回归模型, 典型山区县, 重庆

Abstract: The township population migration coefficient and the intensity of the rural population migration coefficient of Shizhu County in 2004 and 2014 are set as measurement indexes. By using GIS-ESDA spatial analysis method, the spatial correlation index, variation function and the dual Logistic regression model, we explore the characters of the spatial patterns of the population migration and its influence factors of the county between 2004 and 2014. The results show that: 1) During recent decade, the overall spatial pattern of population migration shows strong spatial positive correlation and the spatial aggregation degree increases. 2) Regarding to the hotspot, the concentration of population migration is obvious in the high value area, while that just happens in some places in the low value area. Looking at the revolution of the hotspot, the hotspot area of the population migration coefficient is expanded from agglomeration into the belt-shaped distribution along the river, while cold spot area is not changed significantly. The evolution of the intensity coefficient of rural population transfer in the hot zone has experienced development of “discrete-multi core”, and cold spot transition area tends to shrink. 3) The significant differences of randomness and the structure in the total variation of apparent indicate the imbalance of population migration and the increase of concentration year by year. 4) Internal factors drive population migration differently. Among them, the effects of the migration experience, the total income of the family, the number of labor force and the degree of road connection are most significant. Both of the family burdens and the topography of the area are characterized by their uniqueness and complexity.

Key words: population migration, Dual Logistic Regress Model, typical mountainous area, Chongqing