关键词: 蝗区演化, 水系变迁, 历史时期, 东部季风区

Abstract:

Floods, droughts and locusts were always the three most common types of natural disasters, which seriously impacted agricultural production in China during historical periods. Current studies of historical locust outbreak are focusing on the Eastern Monsoon Region of China, especially the North China Plain and its adjacent areas. Around the main research theme “locust breeding area evolution and drainage network change during historical period in China”, this article first reviews the research background of the migratory locust hazards and locust breeding area evolution, then examines the current progress and difficulties in “climate and disasters”, “locust breeding area evolution and drainage network change” and other related topics, and at last points out the future scientific issues and their significance: 1) More attention should be paid to the systematic data mining and record excavation of the historical locusts and their breeding areas and also to qualitative, quantitative and normalized statistics of sub-species of locusts in different dynasties and regions. Historical locust database is to be improved and coupled with hydrological/climatic/social factors and other disasters. The Atlas of the history of locust outbreak is to be compiled and the Chinese Historical Locust Geographic Information System (CHLGIS) is to be established. 2) The spatio-temporal evolution history of locust breeding areas is lack of simulation and interpretation, especially lack of studies on typical spatio-temporal evolution history during typical hydrological periods and climate period, as well as the mutual transformation process and mechanism of four types of locust breeding areas. The spatial evolution maps of locust breeding areas need to be compiled, the time series need to be updated for high resolution reconstruction, the process analysis of major locust events need to be strengthened, and the explanation from the perspective of ecology and phenology need to be improved. 3) The interaction process and mechanism between locust breeding area evolution and drainage network change under climate change background in the Eastern Monsoon Region of China during the historical period should be explored. It is urgent to study the integration of “Climate-Hydrology-Locust” systematically and integrally, and to find convincing evidence and facts. 4) The coupling relationship between locusts and other natural disasters and social crises in the typical locust breeding areas and drainage network, the response process of the drainage network change and climate change, the quantitative impact on social development, and linkage among “Climate-Disaster-Society” should be examined. 5) Implication to future disaster and risk assessment should be disclosed. In particular, it is important to focus on the four types of locust breeding areas: river flood locust breeding area, lake shore locust breeding area, sea coast locust breeding area and internal plain flood locust breeding area. They have a significant feature of “water attachment” which indicates the interaction process and mechanism between locust breeding area evolution and drainage network change in the Eastern Monsoon Region of China during the historical period should be an important research direction. 6) Modern process studies focus on the characteristics and risks of future catastrophes in the context of global warming. These characteristics and risks need to be predicted and evaluated, which is expected to offer historical reference and scientific foundation for eco-environmental protection, disaster risk assessment and disaster reduction strategies.

Key words: locust breeding area evolution, drainage network change, historical period, the Eastern Monsoon Region of China