热带地理 ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (6): 802-813.doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003011

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

粤港澳大湾区经济发展时空演变特征及其影响因素

周春山,罗利佳,史晨怡,王珏晗   

  1. (中山大学 地理科学与规划学院,广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室,广州 510275)
  • 出版日期:2017-11-05 发布日期:2017-11-05
  • 作者简介:周春山(1964―),男,河南信阳人,教授,博导,主要研究方向为为城市地理学、区域发展与城乡规划,(E-mail)zhoucs@mail.sysu.edu.cn。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金项目(17BRK010);广东省自然科学基金项目(2017A030313224)

Spatio-temporal Evolutionary Characteristics of the Economic Development in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and Its Influencing Factors

ZHOU Chunshan,LUO Lijia,SHI Chenyi,WANG Juehan   

  1. (Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-Simulation,School of Geography and Planning,Sun Yat-Sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China)
  • Online:2017-11-05 Published:2017-11-05

摘要: 以粤港澳大湾区各地域单元1995―2015年21年经济数据为基础构建指标体系,采用熵值法确定指标权重,对经济发展综合水平进行综合测度,并借助标准差、变异系数与GIS空间分析等方法分析粤港澳大湾区的时空演变特征。研究发现:1)粤港澳大湾区整体经济综合发展水平呈波动式快速增长,经济指数港澳总体上一直是湾区内最高值,广深增加速度较快;2)区域经济绝对差异总体上在扩大,相对差异在缩小;3)经济空间格局由港澳两极中心变化为广州、深圳、香港、澳门多极中心,呈现出沿内湾倒“U”型分布趋势;4)外部环境、区位特征、区域发展政策等是区域经济发展时空差异的主要影响因素。

关键词: 经济发展, 区域发展政策, 外部环境, 粤港澳大湾区

Abstract: To build the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has already become the state development strategy, indicating a new stage of the cooperation among the three places-Guangdong, Hong Kong and Marco. At the same time, the Greater Bay Area has raised the increasing interests of researchers in the fields of all kinds. The existing studies on the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area have been done qualitatively, mainly focusing on the functions, regional relationship and development strategies, while there lacks the research on the regional economy and its spatiotemporal evolutionary structure. In this paper, some quantitative methods have been applied to study the spatiotemporal evolutionary characteristics of the economic development in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. First, a comprehensive economic indicator system was established based on the relevant data of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from 1995 to 2015. By means of the Entropy Evaluation Method, the entropy of each indicator was determined. With the comprehensive assessment model of economic development, the level of economy in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area was calculated. Secondly, the paper used relative development rate (Nich), standard deviation, variable coefficient as well as Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis to analyze the spatiotemporal evolutionary characteristics of the economy in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area since 1995. Finally, the paper explored the possible influencing factors on the economic development in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. The results show that: 1) the economy developed rapidly with some fluctuations as a whole which can be divided into four stages according to its growth rate. Besides, the gross economy has increased and it developed an exported-oriented economy. However, the adjustment of industrial structure was slow. During the study period, Hong Kong and Macao experienced the highest growth rate followed by Guangzhou and Shenzhen, who have already ranked at the first level in the Bay Area; 2) the absolute disparity increased, in the contrary, the relative disparity decreased. Besides, the polarization of economy first experienced a downward trend but then it was strengthened; 3) the spatial characteristic of economy changed from polar central structure composed of Hong Kong and Macao to multi-central structure with Guangzhou and Shenzhen standing out besides Hong Kong and Macao, a reversed “U” type can be seen in the trend analysis; 4) external environment, location and regional policies turned out to be the main influencing factors on the spatiotemporal characteristics of regional economy. After 21 years’ development, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has changed its economic structure from a core-periphery to a network, which indicated the increase of the connection among the cities. In order to improve the international competition of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, this paper gave suggestions from the perspectives of industrial transformation, ecological protection, regional cooperation, cultural innovation and so forth.

Key words: economic development, regional development strategy, external environment, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area