热带地理 ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (1): 20-28.doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003105

• 专题:国内外城镇的增长与收缩 • 上一篇    下一篇

2000年以来广东省城市人口收缩的时空演变与影响因素

杜志威,张虹鸥,叶玉瑶,金利霞,王长建   

  1. (1.广州地理研究所,广州 510070;2.广东省地理空间信息技术与应用公共实验室,广州 510070)
  • 收稿日期:2018-11-15 修回日期:2018-12-11 出版日期:2019-01-05 发布日期:2019-01-05
  • 通讯作者: 张虹鸥(1962—),男,广东梅州人,研究员,主要研究方向为区域发展与城市规划,(E-mail)hozhang@gdas.ac.cn。
  • 作者简介:杜志威(1987—),男,广东广州人,博士,助理研究员,研究方向为城市与区域发展和规划,城市增长与收缩,(E-mail)chiwai_do@foxmail.com;
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(41801122);广东省科学院实施创新驱动发展能力建设专项(2017GDASCX-0101,2018GDASCX-0901)

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influences of Urban Population Shrinkage in Guangdong Since 2000

Du Zhiwei, Zhang Hong’ou, Ye Yuyao, Jin Lixia and Wang Changjian   

  1. (1. Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou 510070, China; 2. Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application, Guangzhou 510070, China)
  • Received:2018-11-15 Revised:2018-12-11 Online:2019-01-05 Published:2019-01-05

摘要:

基于人口变化的视角,分别对2000—2016年间广东省县级以上城市的常住人口与户籍人口进行动态观察,分析不同类型城市人口收缩的时间变化与空间分布,并运用定量回归方法探讨其影响因素。研究发现:普遍增长伴随着局部收缩是广东省城市人口变化的主要特征,常住人口收缩数量变化具有波动性和短期性的特征,而户籍人口的波动变化则相对较平稳;省域层面城市人口收缩呈现“核心地区增长—外围地区收缩”的总体分布规律,持续收缩和片段收缩的城市主要集中在省域边缘地带。此外,产业经济动力不足、区域发展存在的差异、地方财政力量薄弱以及本地人口持续外流是导致外围地区城市人口收缩的主要影响因素。

关键词: 收缩城市, 人口收缩, 常住人口, 户籍人口, 广东省

Abstract:

After the reform and opening up of China began in 1978, Guangdong province made great achievements in economic development and urbanization, achieving international significance with its “Guangdong development model.” In recent years, accompanied by changes in the external environment and internal conditions, a new phenomenon, named urban shrinkage, has occurred during the process of rapid urbanization, with such features as economic decline, population outflows, and vacant dwellings, in complete contrast to the traditional development path. Given this phenomenon, this paper dynamically observes the changes to the number of permanent residents and the registered population of cities above county level from 2000 to 2016. By classifying three typologies of urban population shrinkage-continuous shrinkage, episodic shrinkage, and no shrinkage-we analyze the time trajectory and spatial distribution of urban population shrinkage. In addition, we discuss the factors influencing the shrinkage of cities in Guangdong province by using a regression model to explore the effects of potential determinants (manufacturing sector, service sector, fixed-asset investment scale, public services levels in cities, average income of industrial workers, and local government financial status) on urban population shrinkage. The study had several findings. First, general growth accompanied by local shrinkage is the main characteristic of urban population change in Guangdong. The change in permanent population shrinkage is characterized by fluctuations and short-termism, and its trajectory is V-shaped, while the household registration population change is relatively stable. Second, in spatial terms, urban population shrinkage presents a distribution pattern of “core growing-edge shrinking,” with cities showing continuous or episodic shrinkage mainly concentrated in the eastern and northern parts of Guangdong. In contrast to the zonal distribution of resident population shrinkage, household registration population shrinkage is mainly distributed scattered, with four counties in Qingyuan city being typical of edge-shrinking cities in Guangdong. Third, urban population shrinkage no longer follows a simple linear process at the provincial level but involves a combination of multidimensional and multifactorial motivations, including economic, institutional, social, and demographic. Industrial economic decline, regional developmental differences, local financial shortages, and local population outflows are the main factors influencing urban population shrinkage in Guangdong province. Our study offers a comprehensive method, using different typologies, for understanding urban shrinkage in its spatiotemporal evolution and provides new research evidence for determining the influences on shrinking cities in areas of rapid urbanization.

Key words: shrinking cities, Population Shrinkage, permanent residents, the registered population, Guangdong