热带地理 ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (1): 40-50.doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003203
收稿日期:
2019-06-02
修回日期:
2019-10-18
出版日期:
2020-01-10
发布日期:
2020-02-24
通讯作者:
李郇
E-mail:lixun@mail.sysu.edu.cn
作者简介:
李珊(1987—),女,湖北天门人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为城市与区域发展、产业发展等,(E-mail) <email>lishan8@mail2.sys</email>u.edu.cn。
基金资助:
Li Shan1, Feng Pan2, Song Yuru1, Qin Xiaozhen1, Li Xun1()
Received:
2019-06-02
Revised:
2019-10-18
Online:
2020-01-10
Published:
2020-02-24
Contact:
Li Xun
E-mail:lixun@mail.sysu.edu.cn
摘要:
经济全球化下,研究中国出口演化对经济发展的影响至关重要。西方演化经济学界“产品空间网络”理论的提出,为地区产业发展提供了科学复杂网络方法的新视角。国内学界基于该理论在全球尺度下研究中国产业演化的研究甚为匮乏。文章利用2000—2011年全球海关贸易数据库,以R软件可视化全球动态产品空间,构建了“核心区位度”新指标来科学测度国家在全球贸易格局中的位置,探讨国家在产品空间网络中“核心-外围”位置对本国经济的影响。研究发现,不同发展程度的国家在产品网络空间的位置存在差别,国家的经济表现越好,国家越倾向于在产品空间网络处于核心位置。中国已改变传统上的专业化生产两极分化出口贸易模式,形成相对均衡化的贸易格局,出口优势产品开始从产品空间网络的外围轻工业集群,走向核心地带的机械设备集群及化工综合集群,成为全球网络核心区位度提升幅度最大的国家之一。通过回归模型得出,影响中国在产业空间网络中核心位置演化的主要因素是教育质量与研发投资等因素,而外商投资并未对中国走向网络核心位置存在显著影响。
中图分类号:
李珊, 冯攀, 宋雨儒, 秦小珍, 李郇. 2000—2011年产品空间网络视角下中国出口演化及其机制[J]. 热带地理, 2020, 40(1): 40-50.
Li Shan, Feng Pan, Song Yuru, Qin Xiaozhen, Li Xun. Evolution and Mechanism of China’s Exports in a Dynamic Product Space Network[J]. Tropical Geography, 2020, 40(1): 40-50.
2000—2011年全球产品的邻近度"
年份 | 无邻近度=0 | 邻近度∈(0,0.25] | 邻近度∈(0.25, 0.55] | 邻近度∈(0.55,+$\infty$) | 合计 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
组数 | 占比/% | 组数 | 占比/% | 组数 | 占比/% | 组数 | 占比/% | 组数 | 占比/% | |||||
2000 | 35 119 | 4.56 | 617 902 | 80.31 | 115 823 | 15.05 | 576 | 0.07 | 769 420 | 100 | ||||
2001 | 36 081 | 4.69 | 621 248 | 80.74 | 111 500 | 14.49 | 591 | 0.08 | 769 420 | 100 | ||||
2002 | 37 415 | 4.86 | 624 676 | 81.19 | 106 762 | 13.88 | 567 | 0.07 | 769 420 | 100 | ||||
2003 | 38 758 | 5.04 | 620 854 | 80.69 | 109 210 | 14.19 | 598 | 0.08 | 769 420 | 100 | ||||
2004 | 36 848 | 4.79 | 614 000 | 79.80 | 117 956 | 15.33 | 616 | 0.08 | 769 420 | 100 | ||||
2005 | 34 041 | 4.42 | 608 210 | 79.05 | 126 520 | 16.44 | 649 | 0.08 | 769 420 | 100 | ||||
2006 | 34 048 | 4.43 | 608 944 | 79.14 | 125 803 | 16.35 | 625 | 0.08 | 769 420 | 100 | ||||
2007 | 36 600 | 4.77 | 608 503 | 79.34 | 121 135 | 15.79 | 703 | 0.09 | 766 941 | 100 | ||||
2008 | 34 650 | 4.52 | 599 777 | 78.20 | 131 831 | 17.19 | 683 | 0.09 | 766 941 | 100 | ||||
2009 | 39 221 | 5.11 | 612 383 | 79.85 | 114 810 | 14.97 | 527 | 0.07 | 766 941 | 100 | ||||
2010 | 37 475 | 4.89 | 604 793 | 78.99 | 122 837 | 16.04 | 598 | 0.08 | 765 703 | 100 | ||||
2011 | 42 063 | 5.50 | 592 134 | 77.46 | 129 535 | 16.94 | 734 | 0.10 | 764 466 | 100 |
表3
影响中国出口核心区位度演化的内在机制模型"
核心区位度Core | 系数 | 稳健标准误 | t | P>|t| | [95% 置信区间] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
人口POP | -0.001 72 | 0.000 85 | -2.02 | 0.067* | -0.003 57 | 0.000 137 |
外商投资FDI | -0.054 65 | 0.033 893 | -1.61 | 0.133 | -0.128 5 | 0.019 196 |
教育EDU | 0.025 571 | 0.007 698 | 3.32 | 0.006*** | 0.008 8 | 0.042 343 |
研发R&D | 0.007 615 | 0.002 397 | 3.18 | 0.008*** | 0.00 2392 | 0.012 838 |
截距项 | 276.816 4 | 105.300 4 | 2.63 | 0.022** | 47.386 5 | 506.246 4 |
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