关键词: 新冠肺炎疫情, 扩散特征, 空间格局, 风险等级, 广东

Abstract:

This report analyzes the spatiotemporal spread characteristics and the spatial variation of the coronavirus epidemic based on detailed information of confirmed COVID-19 cases released by the city health commissions in Guangdong Province. The report finds that: 1) the confirmed cases in Guangdong Province maintain certain age distribution characteristics. Middle-aged people represented the largest number of cases, followed by young people, and lastly, the elderly. These results are similar to national statistics; 2) the epidemic spread ratio in Guangdong is 0.198, which indicates that the anti-epidemic measures in Guangdong have effectively suppressed the spread of the epidemic; 3) the difference between the epidemic spread pattern and comprehensive risk pattern in Guangdong Province is significant. Medium-sized cities （third and fourth tier） have higher diffusion risk and medium comprehensive risk. Developed cities have lower diffusion risk but higher comprehensive risks, whereas undeveloped areas in eastern and western Guangdong are safer. Medium-sized cities are apparently weak areas that can be easily overlooked in anti-epidemic work; therefore the control of such areas should be strengthened; 4) the results of Guangdong's epidemic prevention measures can be actively promoted in the future to reduce public anxiety. The current priority should be the prevention of a second epidemic shock caused by returning workers and school students. In the middle-late stages of epidemic prevention, the implementation of risk management should be differentiated according to the epidemic risk levels among different cities for the sake of restoring social production and avoiding the negative impacts towards society stemming from the over use of anti-epidemic measures, especially for vulnerable and underdeveloped areas.

Key words: the Corona Virus Disease 2019（COVID-19） epidemic, diffusion characteristics, spatial structure, risk rating, Guangdong