热带地理 ›› 2021, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (3): 528-539.doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003344

• 人口地理 • 上一篇    下一篇

城市流动人口长期居留意愿的空间分异及影响因素——以长三角城市群为例

朱羽佳1(), 汪德根2(), 曾鹏1   

  1. 1.天津大学 建筑学院,天津 300072
    2.苏州大学 建筑学院,江苏 苏州 215123
  • 收稿日期:2020-10-10 修回日期:2020-11-25 出版日期:2021-06-30 发布日期:2021-06-24
  • 通讯作者: 汪德根 E-mail:zhuyujia@tju.edu.cn;wdg713@163.com
  • 作者简介:朱羽佳(1996—),女,河北保定人,硕士研究生,研究方向为城乡规划与研究,(E-mail)zhuyujia@tju.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41930644)

Spatial Differentiation of the Long-Term Residence Intention of the Urban Floating Population and Its Influencing Factors: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

Yujia Zhu1(), Degen Wang2(), Peng Zeng1   

  1. 1.School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
    2.School of Architecture, Soochow University, Suzhou 215123, China
  • Received:2020-10-10 Revised:2020-11-25 Online:2021-06-30 Published:2021-06-24
  • Contact: Degen Wang E-mail:zhuyujia@tju.edu.cn;wdg713@163.com

摘要:

以长三角城市群为例,采用多层Logistic回归分析方法,分析城市流动人口长期居留意愿的空间格局及其影响因素。研究发现:1)长三角城市群流动人口长期居留意愿比例为38.09%,其中安徽的城市流动人口以省内流入为主,长期居留意愿比例普遍较高;而沪、苏、浙的城市大多以省际迁移人口为主,高和较高居留意愿城市主要为上海、南京、无锡和苏州等。2)房租收入比对流动人口长期居留意愿呈显著负效应;高学历因素、保障性住房、社会心理认同度和超大、特大城市对其居留意愿有强激励性作用,成为最主要的影响因素;而在劳动密集部门就业是其居留意愿的强阻碍性因素。3)长三角地区住房支出与流动人口居留意愿呈正相关,且流入地城市的居民平均收入水平对其居留意愿未呈现促进作用。4)不同规模城市对流动人口居留意愿的影响具有差异,年龄和跨省流动对居留意愿的负效应仅在一般城市显著,对特大/超大城市影响不显著;而特大、超大城市的居留意愿受高学历和就业身份等影响更大。

关键词: 流动人口, 居留意愿, 空间格局, 影响因素, 长三角城市群

Abstract:

The citizenization of the floating population is a primary task of the people-centered new urbanization. Taking the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration as an example, this paper analyzes the spatial distribution and influencing factors of the long-term residence intention of the urban floating population using a multilevel logistic regression method. The findings were as follows. (1) The proportion of the floating population with long-term residence intention was 38.09% in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. Cities with the highest and higher proportions of long-term residence intention were mainly concentrated in Anhui Province in the west of the urban agglomeration and the Shanghai-Nanjing development axis, while the floating population that migrated to Zhejiang Province generally had medium and low residence intention. The spatial difference of the long-term residence intention of the floating population was different from that of the floating population size. As for the types of floating population, for most cities in the coastal provinces, their floating populations were comprised mainly of inter-provincial migrants. Shanghai and Zhejiang Province, especially, were the main destinations of inter-provincial migrants. Anhui was a typical area of population outflow, and the floating population staying there was made up mainly of intra-provincial migrants. (2) The rent-to-income ratio had a significant negative effect on the long-term residence intention of the floating population. Among the personal and family factors, high education, social and psychological identity, and affordable housing were strong motivating factors, but working in the labor-intensive sector had a strong negative effect on long-term residence intention. Among the factors of the destination cities, megacities strongly influenced the long-term residence intention of the floating population. (3) The housing rent was positively related to the long-term residence intention in the Yangtze River Delta, while the average income of residents in the city did not promote the long-term residence intention of the floating population. Migrant age was negatively correlated with their long-term residence intention. These are new findings of the study. (4) The influencing factors of the long-term residence intention of the floating population varied according to the city size. Age and inter-provincial migration were the limiting factors for long-term residence intention in general cities, but they were not significant in megacities. The long-term residence intention in megacities was more related to high education and employment type. This indicates that megacities are more inclusive of inter-provincial migrants and friendly to various ages; migrants' residence intention in megacities depends more on personal qualities and employability. Besides, the average income level of the destination city only had a negative effect on the residence intention in general cities.

Key words: floating population, residence intention, spatial distribution, influencing factor, the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration

中图分类号: 

  • C912.8