• 论文 •

广州市登革热时空传播特征及影响因素

1. （1．华南师范大学 地理科学学院，广州 510631；2．中国人民大学 环境学院，北京 100872）
• 收稿日期:2016-06-18 出版日期:2016-09-05 发布日期:2016-09-05
• 通讯作者: 李卫红（1966―），女，四川人，副教授，学士，主要从事犯罪地理研究及时空数据挖掘，（E-mail）hongweili9981@163.com
• 作者简介:陈业滨（1991―），男，广东人，硕士研究生，主要从事时空数据挖掘研究，（E-mail）yebinchen1991@163.com
• 基金资助:
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目（41201432）；国家自然科学基金项目（41171141）

Spatio-temporal Spreading Features and the Influence Factors of Dengue Fever in Downtown Guangzhou

CHEN Yebin1，LI Weihong1，HUANG Yuxing1，LI Xiaoge2，HUA Jiamin1

• Received:2016-06-18 Online:2016-09-05 Published:2016-09-05

Abstract: The study took downtown Guangzhou as the study area to observe the spatio-temporal spreading features of Dengue Fever (DF) at micro-scale. We used survey analysis, kernel density analysis and standard deviation ellipse method to explore the spatio-temporal diffusion features. Then, we tried to combine the cross correlation analysis method with geographical detector to analyze the effect of temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, different land-use types on dengue fever spread. The result showed that: Firstly, fever transmission had stage character significantly. The infection cases occurred predominantly in the spaces with poor environment and high population density, and spread rapidly. Secondly, the importation cases played a major role in the early stages of DF development. Thirdly, the old town, where there were relatively poor environment, large quantity of elderly population, complicated personnel, and convenient traffic, was a high-risk area of DF outbreak. Fourthly, the influence of temperature, humidity and atmospheric pressure on dengue fever spread was lagging. Temperature and humidity had positive correlationship with the spread of dengue fever, while atmospheric pressure had negative correlationship with the spread. Finally, the distribution of local residents had the closest association with dengue fever spread, and the interactive places among pond, farmland, grassland and public green space could increase the dengue fever infection risk.