热带地理 ›› 2015, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (6): 860-872.doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002779

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于贝叶斯模式平均的东江流域降雨概率预报

吴裕珍1,钟逸轩2,王大刚1,吴文娇3   

  1. (1.中山大学 水资源与环境系,广州 510275;2.武汉大学 水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉 430072; 3.广东省东江流域管理局,广东 惠州 516000)
  • 出版日期:2015-11-05 发布日期:2015-11-05
  • 通讯作者: 王大刚(1975―),男,河北张家口人,副教授,主要从事陆地过程模拟和城市化气候效应研究,(E-mail)wangdag@mail.sysu.edu.cn。
  • 作者简介:吴裕珍(1991―),女,广东珠海人,硕士研究生,主要从事气象气候预测研究,(E-mail)wuyzhen@mail.sysu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点基础研究973项目(2013CB036400);国家自然科学基金项目(51379224);广东省水利科技创新项目

Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasting over the Dongjiang Basin with BMA

WU Yuzhen1,ZHONG Yixuan2,WANG Dagang1,WU Wenjiao3   

  1. (1.Department of Water Resources and Environment,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;2.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;3.Administration of Dongjiang Basin of Guangdong,Huizhou 516000,China)
  • Online:2015-11-05 Published:2015-11-05

摘要:

为验证贝叶斯模式平均(BMA)在东江流域的适用性,基于TIGGE多模式集合预报资料对东江流域不同预报时段(1、3、5及10日)以及不同地域(上、中及下游)应用BMA,得到的主要结论为:1)BMA的预报能力在时空上都较为稳定,预报效果较好;2)在各预报时段中BMA极大提高了预报的精度,其中预报时段越短,误差减少的幅度越大;3)当95%分位数已超过警戒的雨量时,应做好相关的预警和预防工作,但BMA也会出现误报和虚报的情况,需要进行权衡和风险的评估,同时这也是需进一步研究和完善的地方;4)结合其他国内外的研究来看,BMA对天气要素预报的订正作用可能具有普适性,值得推广使用。

关键词: 贝叶斯模式平均, 降雨概率预报, 极端降雨预警方案, 东江流域

Abstract:

To evaluate the performance of BMA (Bayesian Model Averaging) in forecasting precipitation in the Dongjiang basin and to provide the theoretical basis for the storm early warning system, the BMA-based prediction method is applied into precipitation forecast in the Dongjiang Basin. The evaluation is conducted for different lead time (i.e., 1-day, 3-days, 5-days, and 10-days) and different regions (i.e. up, mid and downstream) by using the TIGGE (The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) multi-model products. Conclusions are drawn as follows: 1) The forecasting skill of BMA is fairly good in forecasting accuracy for almost all regions and lead time. 2) The forecasting accuracy is improved by using BMA as compared with the original ensemble means, and the improvement is more significant for short lead time. 3) If the 95% percentile rainfall exceeds the disastrous rainfall amount, the early warning system and the preventive work should be initiated; however, the BMA forecasting results should be used with caution as the false warning would occasionally happen. 4) According to the results from our study, together with findings from other studies over different areas, we suggest that BMA would be suitable for precipitation forecasting and worth recommending.

Key words: BMA, probabilistic precipitation forecasting, storm early warning system, the Dongjiang Basin