热带地理

热带地理 ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (6): 852-861.doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003000

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

东盟与大国贸易联系及其影响因素

王 倩1,2，宋 涛1，梁 宜1,2，邹嘉龄1,3   

  1. （1．中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所，北京 100101；2．中国科学院大学，北京 100049；3．中电科新型智慧城市研究院有限公司，广东 深圳 518040）
  • 出版日期:2017-11-05 发布日期:2017-11-05
  • 通讯作者: 宋涛（1983―），男，山西太原人，助理研究员，主要研究方向为地缘政治、区域可持续发展，（E-mail）songtao@igsnrr.ac.cn。
  • 作者简介:王倩（1994―），女，山西运城人，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为地缘政治、区域可持续发展，（E-mail）wangq.14s@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目（41701131、41530634、41530751）；云南省中国西南地缘环境与边疆发展协同创新中心开放课题

Trade Linkages between ASEAN and Great Powers and Their Influencing Factors

WANG Qian1,2，SONG Tao1，LIANG Yi1,2，ZOU Jialing1,3   

  1. （1．Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research，CAS，Beijing 100101，China；2．University of Chinese Academy of Sciences， Beijing 100049，China；3．The Smart City Research Institute of China Electronics Technology Group Corporation，Shenzhen 518040，China）
  • Online:2017-11-05 Published:2017-11-05

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摘要：

基于社会网络分析法和引力模型，对东盟及其主要贸易对象在贸易网络中的角色相似性、权力分布进行分析，进而结合传统因子（距离、人口、GDP）与政治制度差异、贸易协定等因素，探讨了影响两国贸易情况的因素。得到的结论为：1）东南亚地区的贸易体系中，中美两国角色相似，权力相当，两者的竞争也较大；2）东盟各国对中国的贸易依赖自2000年以来，逐步上升，对美日的依赖则相对减小；3）区域性的多边贸易组织能够促进国家间贸易，抵消距离的阻碍作用。最后，提出了中国与东盟之间应制定更多的贸易优惠政策，增强双边经济依赖，提高政治互信等建议。

关键词: 贸易网络, 贸易依赖, 地缘经济, 东南亚国家联盟

Abstract:

Southeast Asia is the key to China’s peripheral diplomacy. In “the Belt and Road” construction period, it is meaningful to study on the trade links and influencing factors between ASEAN member states and major world powers. On the one hand, it will help to grasp the changes of international trade forces in Southeast Asia since 2000. And on the other hand, targeting the important influencing factors, China will strengthen the bilateral cooperation with ASEAN to promote more in-depth cooperation in the future. Based on social network analysis and gravity model, this paper analyzes the degree of centralism in the trade network, role similarity of ASEAN and its main trade objects, then discusses the factors that affect the trade between the two sides, such as distance, population, GDP, political system differences, trade agreements, and puts forward some proposals about future trade development between China and ASEAN. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) The trade density between ASEAN countries and major powers has been increasing since 2000. Singapore, Malaysia are the bellwethers of ASEAN's foreign trade; 2) Among the major powers, the roles of the United States and China in the trade network are similar, and the probability of their competition in ASEAN trade is also large; 3) ASEAN’s trade dependence on China has been rising since 2000, while the economic dependence on the USA and Japan has been relatively reduced; 4) The regional multilateral trade organization can promote the trade between countries, and counteract the hindrance of distance; 5) China should establish more preferential trade policies with ASEAN to enhance bilateral economic dependence, enhance political mutual trust and promote non-governmental exchanges.

Key words: trade network, interdependence, Geopolitics, Association of Southeast Asian Nations