基于贝叶斯模式平均的东江流域降雨概率预报

doi:10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002779

Abstract

Abstract:

To evaluate the performance of BMA (Bayesian Model Averaging) in forecasting precipitation in the Dongjiang basin and to provide the theoretical basis for the storm early warning system, the BMA-based prediction method is applied into precipitation forecast in the Dongjiang Basin. The evaluation is conducted for different lead time (i.e., 1-day, 3-days, 5-days, and 10-days) and different regions (i.e. up, mid and downstream) by using the TIGGE (The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) multi-model products. Conclusions are drawn as follows: 1) The forecasting skill of BMA is fairly good in forecasting accuracy for almost all regions and lead time. 2) The forecasting accuracy is improved by using BMA as compared with the original ensemble means, and the improvement is more significant for short lead time. 3) If the 95% percentile rainfall exceeds the disastrous rainfall amount, the early warning system and the preventive work should be initiated; however, the BMA forecasting results should be used with caution as the false warning would occasionally happen. 4) According to the results from our study, together with findings from other studies over different areas, we suggest that BMA would be suitable for precipitation forecasting and worth recommending.

Key words: BMA, probabilistic precipitation forecasting, storm early warning system, the Dongjiang Basin

WU Yuzhen，ZHONG Yixuan，WANG Dagang，WU Wenjiao. Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasting over the Dongjiang Basin with BMA[J].TROPICAL GEOGRAPHY, 2015, 35(6): 860-872.

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Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasting over the Dongjiang Basin with BMA

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