TROPICAL GEOGRAPHY ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (1): 48-60.doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002962

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Projected Regional Difference of the Rainfall with Different Intensities and Their Contribution to Total Rainfall under the RCP6.0 Scenario in China during 2006-2100

KONG Feng1,2,3,WANG Yifei1b,FANG Jian4,LYU Lili1,ZHANG Lili1b,WANG Zhuoni1b   

  1. (1.a.Research Center for Strategic Development;b.China Meteorological Administration Training Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China;2.State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;3.Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education,Beijing 100875,China; 4.School of Resources and Environmental Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,China)
  • Online:2018-01-05 Published:2018-01-05

Abstract: Climatic condition is the important foundation for human subsistence and development and the key factor in sustainable development of economy and society. As one of the climatic elements, different intensity precipitation’s long-term trend change has been a global issue attracting great attentions of politicians, scientists, governments, and the public alike throughout the world. Here we use RCP6.0 emission scenarios WRF 30 km × 30 km daily precipitation data from 2006 to 2100, according to the rainfall intensity grading standards issue by China Meteorological Administration to diagnose different intensity rainfall and its contribution rate to the total rainfall around the overall and seven regions’ trend in China. The results show that: different intensity rainfall would show a different pattern of spatial differentiation under RCP6.0 emission scenarios from 2006 to 2100 in China. Light rainfall and moderate rainfall would have the distribution characteristics of “High - Low - High” from the northeast to the southwest in China. Heavy rainfall, storm rainfall, heavy storm rainfall and total storm rainfall would present the spatial pattern of “High in the Southeast - Low in the Northwest”. Super heavy storm rainfall would be only distributed in the southeast coastal areas. Total rainfall would present a spatial differentiation pattern of “High in the South - Moderate in the North - Low in the Northwest”. The contribution rate of heavy intensity rainfall to the total rainfall would show the characteristic of “High in the Southeast - Low in the Northwest”, while the contribution rate of light intensity rainfall to the total rainfall would be just the opposite. The contribution rate of different intensity storm rainfall to the total storm rainfall would present similar distribution characteristics. As for the change trend of rainfall, the trend of different intensity rainfall in China would show different spatial patterns, but the area of heavy intensity rainfall with increasing trend would be significantly more than that of decreasing trend. As for the change trend of rainfall contribution rate of heavy (light) intensity rainfall to total rainfall, the contribution rate with increasing (decreasing) trend would be dominated. The contribution rate of heavy intensity rainfall to the total rainfall with increasing trend would be more obviously than that of light intensity rainfall with increasing trend. As for the change trend of the contribution rate of different intensity storm rainfall to total storm rainfall, the contribution rate of heavy intensity storm rainfall with increasing trend to total storm rainfall would be more obvious than that of light intensity storm rainfall with increasing trend. Prediction results show that the precipitation in Eastern China would develop in the direction of extremalization.

Key words: RCP6.0, trend, rainfall contribution rate, spatial pattern, regional differences, China