中国中等职业教育空间集聚及其影响因素

doi:10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003209

Abstract

Abstract:

The economic and social transformation and reconstruction in China has prompted the government to focus its attention on the role and influence of vocational education on the development of the manufacturing industry and improvement of social equity. Secondary vocational education is an important part of popularizing high school education and developing modern vocational education in China. It is the foundation of constructing a modern vocational education system. It is of great significance for the cultivation of middle-level skilled technical talents and the improvement of the labor market. Based on statistical data of the development of secondary vocational education in 31 provinces and regions in mainland China from 2000 to 2016, this study focuses on the spatial clustering characteristics and factors influencing the development of secondary vocational education. The study adopts methods such as geographical concentration, spatial autocorrelation analysis, geographical detector, etc., to explore the following issues: How will China’s secondary vocational education change in a spatiotemporal context? Is there spatial agglomeration? What are the factors that cause the spatial agglomeration of secondary vocational education? This study shows that the development of secondary vocational education in China followed an inverted "U" trend from 2000 to 2016, and the geographical concentration of students in the provincial level is gradually increasing. The provinces with large-scale secondary vocational education include Guangdong Province, Henan Province, and Shandong Province. The development of secondary vocational education in more than one-third of the provinces in China is characterized by small scale and slow growth, as seen in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Fujian, Hubei, Shaanxi, Shanxi and Northeast China, while the "growth" provinces are all distributed in southern China, including Anhui, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, etc. From the perspective of spatial relationship, there is a significant spatial autocorrelation between the level and growth of secondary vocational education from 2000 to 2016, but the degree of spatial agglomeration has declined; this indicates that the spatial balance of secondary vocational education is constantly improving. In addition, the overall level of secondary vocational education shows a trend of "moving south." The hotspots have moved from North China to Southeast, Central, and South China. Shandong, Henan, and Anhui provinces are always included as hotspots of secondary vocational education. The hotspots of secondary vocational education growth are mainly distributed in the western region, and show a transfer process from northwest to southwest. Tibet is always in a hotspot of growth. The main factors influencing this pattern of change are the population of school-age children and secondary vocational education development conditions, while the role of regional economic development level is relatively small. The interaction between different factors significantly affects the changes in the spatial pattern of secondary vocational education, mainly through interactions between the number of junior high school graduates and other factors.

Key words: secondary vocational education, spatial agglomeration, spatial autocorrelation, geodetector, geographies of education, China

CLC Number:

G638

Wang Hui, Yan Junping, Peng Bangwen, Liu Dongmei, Lian Lijuan. Spatial Agglomeration and Factors Influencing of Secondary Vocational Education in China during 2000‒2016[J].Tropical Geography, 2020, 40(3): 525-538.

Figures/Tables 12

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类型	省区
Ⅰ类（增长型）	贵州、广东、云南、四川、广西、江西、安徽、湖南
Ⅱ类（扶持型）	海南、青海、西藏、重庆、新疆、宁夏、甘肃
Ⅲ类（缩减型）	山西、陕西、黑龙江、内蒙古、湖北、辽宁、吉林、福建、天津、北京、上海
Ⅳ类（稳定型）	河南、浙江、山东、江苏、河北

指数	2000年	2009年	2016年
Moran’s I	0.381 2	0.246 8	0.215 5
Z值	3.573 9	2.384 8	2.184 6
p值	0.000 4	0.017 1	0.028 9

时段	Moran’s I	Z-value	p-value
2000—2016年	0.472 0	4.350 2	0.000 0
2000—2009年	0.400 2	3.767 9	0.000 2
2009—2016年	0.268 9	2.611 4	0.009 0

影响因素	探测因子
中等职业教育条件	学校数（X₁）
	专任教师数（X₂）
	中等职业教育经费支出（X₃）
经济发展水平	地区生产总值（X₄）
	人均GDP（X₅）
	地区财政收入（X₆）
	二三产业占比（X₇）
	固定资产投资（X₈）
社会发展因素	常住人口数（X₉）
	初中毕业生数（X₁₀）
	高校在校生数（X₁₁）
	普通高中升学率（X₁₂）
	农村人均可支配收入（X₁₃）
	城镇登记失业率（X₁₄）
	城镇化率（X₁₅）
	就业人员高等教育占比（X₁₆）

影响因子	2000年	2009年	2016年	平均值
学校数（X₁）	0.784 6	0.792 3	0.699 6	0.758 8
专任教师数（X₂）	0.842 3	0.844 4	0.786 2	0.824 3
中等职业教育经费支出（X₃）	0.670 0	0.690 5	0.721 4	0.694 0
地区生产总值（X₄）	0.679 7	0.505 4	0.564 5	0.583 2
人均GDP（X₅）	0.086 0	0.043 4	0.134 8	0.082 1
地区财政收入（X₆）	0.592 0	0.477 9	0.308 8	0.459 6
二三产业占比（X₇）	0.059 2	0.043 9	0.063 0	0.055 4
固定资产投资（X₈）	0.690 8	0.667 2	0.629 6	0.662 5
常住人口数（X₉）	0.761 6	0.856 5	0.787 3	0.801 8
初中毕业生数（X₁₀）	0.783 4	0.858 1	0.899 0	0.846 8
高校在校生数（X₁₁）	0.571 1	0.830 0	0.756 2	0.719 1
普通高中升学率（X₁₂）	0.109 7	0.246 8	0.311 3	0.222 6
农村人均可支配收入（X₁₃）	0.466 2	0.346 5	0.276 7	0.363 1
城镇登记失业率（X₁₄）	0.077 7	0.245 4	0.059 9	0.127 7
城镇化率（X₁₅）	0.030 9	0.208 1	0.033 8	0.090 9
就业人员高等教育占比（X₁₆）	0.049 5	0.167 7	0.137 9	0.118 4

Spatial Agglomeration and Factors Influencing of Secondary Vocational Education in China during 2000‒2016

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组别	2000年		2009年		2016年
组别	交互类型	q值	交互类型	q值	交互类型	q值
1	X₁₀∩X₁₆（NE）	0.93	X₃∩X₁₀（BE）	0.95	X₇∩X₁₀（BE）	0.97
2	X₂∩X₈（BE）	0.93	X₂∩X₁₀（BE）	0.94	X₈∩X₁₀（BE）	0.97
3	X₂∩X₁₀（BE）	0.92	X₆∩X₁₀（BE）	0.94	X₁₀∩X₁₄（BE）	0.96
4	X₁∩X₁₀（BE）	0.92	X₁₀∩X₁₄（BE）	0.94	X₁₀∩X₁₅（BE）	0.95
5	X₆∩X₁₀（BE）	0.92	X₁∩X₁₁（BE）	0.94	X₁₀∩X₁₆（BE）	0.95

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