Abstract:

Citrus is an important agricultural product in China and globally, and citrus production in China plays a vital role in global citrus patterns; specifically, spatial changes in these patterns affect the supply of citrus in China and have an important impact on the international citrus trade. In this study, the industrial concentration, exploratory data analysis, industrial gravity model, and spatial Durbin model were used to analyze the spatial evolution characteristics of and factors driving citrus production in China. The results showed that, from 1978 to 2015, China's citrus production space showed an expanding trend, which could be divided into a rapid growth period (1978-1991), low growth period (1992-2000), and steady growth period (2001-2015). The citrus production space in China is mainly concentrated in Southwest, Central South, and East China, with a spatial structure of "cold in the north and hot in the South." Citrus production space has a significant positive spatial autocorrelation on the provincial scale, showing a significant geographical agglomeration; the agglomeration first drops sharply, following which it fluctuates and rises. Since 2000, the center of the production space has continuously moved to the Southwest; the trend of "moving to the West and expanding to the South" is evident. China's citrus production space has gradually changed from the original natural drive to the "natural society" drive. The endowment of natural resources determines the basic space of citrus production in China, where social and economic factors are important reasons for changes in citrus production space. Among the market location factors, road transportation and fruit consumption significantly affect the citrus production space positively. The increase in road network density improves the economic location of the production area, and the increase in residents' incomes expands the demand for citrus consumption; therefore, for each 1% increase in road network density and income, the citrus area increases by 0.192% and 0.107%, respectively. Among the production factors, labor input and water conservancy irrigation have positive effects on citrus production space; with a 1% increase in these factors, the citrus area increases by 0.934% and 0.094%, respectively. Regarding social and economic factors, the loss of rural labor as a result of non-agricultural employment opportunities has a strong negative effect on the production space of citrus. The citrus area is reduced by 1.365% for each 1% increase. New varieties and new technologies brought about by scientific and technological progress positively affect citrus production space, and the citrus area increases by 0.058% for every 1% increase in this factor. The direct effect of per capita grain possession is negative, and the indirect effect is positive, indicating that with regard allocating limited land resources, local land must first meet the food security and inhibit the increase in citrus area. The increase in the per capita share in neighboring areas can meet the local food security and promote the increase of citrus area through food circulation.

Key words: citrus, spatio-temporal pattern, spatial differentiation, driving mechanism, China