城市流动人口长期居留意愿的空间分异及影响因素——以长三角城市群为例

doi:10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003344

Abstract

Abstract:

The citizenization of the floating population is a primary task of the people-centered new urbanization. Taking the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration as an example, this paper analyzes the spatial distribution and influencing factors of the long-term residence intention of the urban floating population using a multilevel logistic regression method. The findings were as follows. (1) The proportion of the floating population with long-term residence intention was 38.09% in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. Cities with the highest and higher proportions of long-term residence intention were mainly concentrated in Anhui Province in the west of the urban agglomeration and the Shanghai-Nanjing development axis, while the floating population that migrated to Zhejiang Province generally had medium and low residence intention. The spatial difference of the long-term residence intention of the floating population was different from that of the floating population size. As for the types of floating population, for most cities in the coastal provinces, their floating populations were comprised mainly of inter-provincial migrants. Shanghai and Zhejiang Province, especially, were the main destinations of inter-provincial migrants. Anhui was a typical area of population outflow, and the floating population staying there was made up mainly of intra-provincial migrants. (2) The rent-to-income ratio had a significant negative effect on the long-term residence intention of the floating population. Among the personal and family factors, high education, social and psychological identity, and affordable housing were strong motivating factors, but working in the labor-intensive sector had a strong negative effect on long-term residence intention. Among the factors of the destination cities, megacities strongly influenced the long-term residence intention of the floating population. (3) The housing rent was positively related to the long-term residence intention in the Yangtze River Delta, while the average income of residents in the city did not promote the long-term residence intention of the floating population. Migrant age was negatively correlated with their long-term residence intention. These are new findings of the study. (4) The influencing factors of the long-term residence intention of the floating population varied according to the city size. Age and inter-provincial migration were the limiting factors for long-term residence intention in general cities, but they were not significant in megacities. The long-term residence intention in megacities was more related to high education and employment type. This indicates that megacities are more inclusive of inter-provincial migrants and friendly to various ages; migrants' residence intention in megacities depends more on personal qualities and employability. Besides, the average income level of the destination city only had a negative effect on the residence intention in general cities.

Key words: floating population, residence intention, spatial distribution, influencing factor, the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration

CLC Number:

C912.8

Yujia Zhu, Degen Wang, Peng Zeng. Spatial Differentiation of the Long-Term Residence Intention of the Urban Floating Population and Its Influencing Factors: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration[J].Tropical Geography, 2021, 41(3): 528-539.

Figures/Tables 9

Table 1

Variable selection for the influence factors of long-term residence intention of floating population

变量类别		变量名称	变量编号	变量赋值	测量尺度
住房支付能力		房租收入比	X₁	被访者家庭在流入城市的月居住支出占该家庭在流入城市的月收入的百分比	连续数值
住房支付能力		房租/千元	X₂	被访者家庭在流入城市的月居住支出（仅房租、房贷）	连续数值
个人/ 家庭因素	个人家庭情况	年龄/岁	X₃	被访者年龄	连续数值
		学历	X₄	大专及以上毕业=1，其他=0	2分类
		婚姻状况	X₅	已婚=1，未婚=0	2分类
		本地家庭规模/人	X₆	共同居住在流入城市的家庭人口数量	连续数值
	就业情况	制造业从业人员	X₇	职业为生产、运输、建筑等制造业=1，其他=0	2分类
		服务业从业人员	X₈	商业服务业从业人员=1，其他=0	2分类
		是否雇员	X₉	雇员=1，其他=0	2分类
		劳动合同（固定期限）	X₁₀	与单位签订固定期限的劳动合同=1，其他=0	2分类
	流动特征	流入时间/a	X₁₁	流动人口在本地逗留时间（中途返乡1月以下不记为新的流动）	连续数值
	流动特征	跨省流动	X₁₂	跨省流动=1，其他=0	2分类
	社会融合	社区活动参与度	X₁₃	参与社区活动、志愿活动和党团组织活动的频率打分（4分制量表）， 3题项打分取均值	连续数值
	社会融合	社会心理认同度	X₁₄	喜欢流入地、关注流入地变化、愿意融入流入城市、认为是本地人等 4题项的同意程度打分均值（4分制）	连续数值
	社会保障	城镇职工医保	X₁₅	有城镇职工医保=1，没有=0	2分类
		流入城市社保	X₁₆	办理流入地社会保障卡=1，其他=0	2分类
		保障性住房	X₁₇	租住政府提供公租房或自购保障性住房=1，其他=0	2分类
		农村住房面积/m²	X₁₈	农村宅基地面积	连续数值
城市因素	城市等级规模	城市等级	W₁	直辖市、省会城市、计划单列市=1，其他=0	2分类
	城市等级规模	城市规模	W₂	中等城市=1，大城市=2，特大城市、超大城市=3	多分类
	城市经济	人均GDP/万元	W₃	按常住人口计算的城市人均GDP	连续数值
		第三产业比重	W₄	第三产业增加值占地区生产总值比重	连续数值
		城镇居民人均可支配收入/万元	W₅	—	连续数值
	公共服务	每万人医院床位数/张	W₆	医院床位数/城市常住人口	连续数值
	公共服务	每万人小学数/所	W₇	小学数/城市常住人口	连续数值

Table 1

Fig.1

Fig.2

Table 2

Fig.3

Fig.4

Table 3

Table 4

The hierarchical logistic regression results of long-term residence intention of urban floating population

固定效应		层-1模型		层-2模型		完整模型
固定效应		系数（标准误）	OR值	系数（标准误）	OR值	系数（标准误）	OR值
截距		-6.274^**（0.229）	0.002	1.923^*（0.784）	6.844	-4.936^**（0.874）	0.007
个体层次	X₁房租收入比	-0.017^**（0.002）	0.983			-0.017^**（0.002）	0.984
	X₂房租	0.417^**（0.031）	1.517			0.422^**（0.036）	1.525
	X₃年龄	-0.008^**（0.002）	0.992			-0.007^**（0.003）	0.993
	X₄学历（大专及以上）	0.762^**（0.116）	2.142			0.763^**（0.115）	2.145
	X₅婚姻状况（已婚）	0.450^**（0.047）	1.569			0.448^**（0.048）	1.566
	X₆本地家庭规模	0.164^**（0.018）	1.179			0.163^**（0.019）	1.176
	X₇制造业从业人员	-0.409^**（0.042）	0.664			-0.406^**（0.042）	0.667
	X₉是否雇员	-0.159^*（0.070）	0.853			-0.158^*（0.070）	0.854
	X₁₁流入时间	0.060^**（0.003）	1.062			0.059^**（0.003）	1.060
	X₁₂跨省流动	-0.257^*（0.111）	0.773			-0.248^*（0.113）	0.781
	X₁₃社区活动参与度	0.472^**（0.064）	1.602			0.475^**（0.065）	1.609
	X₁₄社会心理认同度	1.267^**（0.048）	3.550			1.265^**（0.054）	3.544
	X₁₆流入城市社保	0.239^**（0.048）	1.269			0.239^**（0.048）	1.270
	X₁₇保障性住房	0.989^**（0.244）	2.688			0.989^**（0.250）	2.688
	X₁₈老家住房面积	-0.001^**（0.000）	0.999			-0.001^** （0.000）	0.999
城市层次	W₂城市规模（对照组：中等城市）
	大城市			-0.328（0.252）	0.720	0.343（0.276）	1.409
	特大、超大城市			0.708（0.526）	2.030	0.877^*（0.322）	2.403
	W₃人均GDP			0.094^*（0.035）	1.098	0.096^**（0.022）	1.101
	W₅城镇居民人均可支配收入			-0.755^**（0.129）	0.470	-0.491^**（0.098）	0.612
	W₆每万人医院床位数			0.008（0.017）	1.008	-0.005（0.004）	0.995
	W₇每万人小学数			-0.161（0.279）	0.851	-0.030（0.418）	0.970
模型信息	个人层次样本量		25 602
	城市层次样本量		27
	城市层次的随机项方差		0.536
	个人层次的随机项方差		3.290
	组内相关系数ICC		0.140（>0.059）

Table 4

Table 5

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迁移人口占比/%	主要迁移流
≥2	邻省迁移流	河南省—上海市（4.7）、江西省—上海市（2.6）、湖北省—上海市（2.6）、山东省—上海市（2.4）、河南省—苏州市（2.2）
≥2	其他迁移流	四川省—上海市（3.2）、四川省—宁波市（2.0）
1.4~2	邻省迁移流	江西省—杭州市（1.9）、河南省—杭州市（1.8）、江西省—金华市（1.7）、江西省—温州市（1.6）、江西省—宁波市（1.6）、福建省—上海市（1.5）、河南省—宁波市（1.4）、河南省—无锡市（1.4）
1.4~2	其他迁移流	贵州省—温州市（1.7）、贵州省—金华市（1.6）、贵州省—宁波市（1.4）、湖南省—上海市（1.4）、四川省—无锡市（1.4）

城市居留意愿类型	代表城市	流动人口来源地
城市居留意愿类型	代表城市	来源地1	比重/%	居留意愿比例/%	来源地2	比重/%	居留意愿比例/%	来源地3	比重/%	居留意愿比例/%
I	合肥	安徽	91.7	60.7	江苏	1.4	—	浙江	1.0	—
I	扬州	江苏	46.1	48.2	安徽	19.4	40.0	河北	4.4	—
II	上海	安徽	28.7	50.4	江苏	17.4	67.4	河南	8.6	44.0
II	南京	安徽	34.7	43.3	江苏	34.1	44.6	河南	6.9	36.8
III	宁波	安徽	22.9	20.8	四川	12.9	18.4	江西	10.2	26.4
	嘉兴	安徽	18.5	22.8	河南	17.8	17.5	四川	10.9	24.5
	南通	安徽	27.5	23.5	江苏	18.0	49.1	山东	15.3	22.2

固定效应		中等城市、大城市			特大、超大城市
固定效应		回归系数	标准误差	OR值	回归系数	标准误差	OR值
截距		-5.042^**	0.892	0.006	-1.140	7.458	0.320
个体层次	X₁房租收入比	-0.019^**	0.004	0.981	-0.016^**	0.003	0.984
	X₂房租	0.499^**	0.056	1.647	0.236^**	0.021	1.266
	X₃年龄	-0.009^*	0.004	0.991	-0.003	0.002	0.997
	X₄学历（大专及以上）	0.517^**	0.076	1.677	0.907^**	0.059	2.476
	X₅婚姻状况（已婚）	0.403^**	0.078	1.496	0.518^**	0.066	1.678
	X₆本地家庭规模	0.164^**	0.026	1.179	0.100^**	0.020	1.105
	X₇制造业从业人员	-0.346^**	0.058	0.708	-0.504^**	0.056	0.604
	X₉是否雇员	-0.004	0.055	0.996	-0.317^**	0.052	0.729
	X₁₁流入时间	0.055^**	0.006	1.057	0.071^**	0.004	1.073
	X₁₂流动范围（跨省流动）	-0.427^**	0.061	0.652	-0.053	0.071	0.949
	X₁₃社区活动参与度	0.469^**	0.086	1.598	0.494^**	0.063	1.639
	X₁₄社会心理认同度	1.174^**	0.061	3.236	1.550^**	0.049	4.711
	X₁₆流入城市社保	0.189^**	0.048	1.208	0.329^**	0.047	1.389
	X₁₇保障性住房	1.057^**	0.234	2.878	0.895^**	0.250	2.447
	X₁₈老家住房面积	-0.000	0.000	0.999	-0.002^**	0.000	0.998
城市层次	W₅城镇居民人均可支配收入	-0.281^*	0.106	0.755	-0.612	0.978	0.542
	W₆每万人医院床位数	0.012	0.011	1.013	0.005	0.030	1.005
	W₇每万人小学数	-0.085	0.335	0.918	-5.584	7.147	0.004
模型信息	个人层次样本量	12 824			12 778
	城市层次样本量	23			4
	城市层次的随机项方差	0.572			0.188
	个人层次的随机项方差	3.290			3.290
	组内相关系数ICC	0.148（>0.059）			0.054（<0.059）

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Spatial Differentiation of the Long-Term Residence Intention of the Urban Floating Population and Its Influencing Factors: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

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