Tropical Geography ›› 2021, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (5): 906-917.doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003387
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Baishi Huang1,2,3(), Ye Liu1,2,3(
), Zehan Pan4
Received:
2021-01-06
Revised:
2021-06-03
Online:
2021-09-05
Published:
2021-09-22
Contact:
Ye Liu
E-mail:huangbsh8@mail2.sysu.edu.cn;liuye25@mail.sysu.edu.cn
CLC Number:
Baishi Huang, Ye Liu, Zehan Pan. The Effects of Urbanization on Older Adults' Health: Evidence from 2,805 Counties in China[J].Tropical Geography, 2021, 41(5): 906-917.
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Table 1
Descriptive statistics of county-level characteristics and individual-level attributes
变量 | 测量方法 | 所有老年 人样本 | 自评为健康的 老年人样本 | 自评为不健康 的老年人样本 | p值 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
结果 变量 | 自评健康/% | 健康=1,不健康=0 | — | — | — | |
健康 | — | 43.57 | — | — | — | |
不健康 | — | 56.43 | — | — | — | |
预测 变量 | 2010年城镇化水平 | 夜间灯光指数 | 12.34 (23.40) | 13.72 (24.05) | 11.24 (22.82) | 0.000a |
2000—2010年城镇化速度/% | 2000—2010年夜间灯光指数的年均变化率 | 26.98 (80.85) | 24.16 (73.33) | 29.16 (86.14) | 0.000a | |
社会剥夺指数 | 方法详见1.2.3节 | -0.26 (2.72) | -0.47 (2.70) | 0.09 (2.72) | 0.000a | |
人均GDP/元(log) | — | 10.14 (0.73) | 10.22 (0.72) | 10.09 (0.73) | 0.000a | |
距海岸线距离/m(log) | 县区质心与中国海岸线的最短直线距离 | 12.34 (1.51) | 12.21 (1.55) | 12.45 (1.46) | 0.000a | |
每千人拥有医院卫生院床位数/床 | 194.08 (3 351.65) | 246.20 (3 787.83) | 153.84 (2 970.73) | 0.000a | ||
PM2.5的平均质量浓度/(μg·m-3) | 43.18 (17.03) | 44.09 (17.04) | 42.78 (16.99) | 0.000a | ||
1981—2010年累年平均气温/℃ | 14.40 (4.47) | 14.54 (4.44) | 14.29 (4.50) | 0.000a | ||
平均海拔/m | — | — | — | — | 0.000b | |
<500 | — | 74.35 | 76.58 | 72.62 | — | |
500~1500 | — | 19.22 | 17.78 | 20.34 | — | |
1 500~2 500 | — | 5.50 | 4.95 | 5.92 | — | |
≥2 500 | — | 0.93 | 0.69 | 1.12 | — | |
年龄/岁 | 以69岁和79岁为断点, 划分3个年龄组 | — | — | — | 0.000b | |
60~69 | 56.46 | 71.59 | 44.78 | — | ||
70~79 | 32.05 | 23.42 | 38.72 | — | ||
≥80 | 11.49 | 4.99 | 16.50 | — | ||
性别 | 男性=1,女性=0 | — | — | 0.000b | ||
女性 | — | 51.13 | 46.18 | 54.95 | — | |
男性 | — | 48.87 | 53.82 | 45.05 | — | |
民族 | 汉族=0,少数民族=1 | — | — | 0.000b | ||
汉族 | — | 93.02 | 93.70 | 92.49 | — | |
少数民族 | — | 6.98 | 6.30 | 7.51 | — | |
婚姻状况 | 有配偶=1,未婚、离婚或丧偶=0 | — | — | — | 0.000b | |
有配偶 | 70.59 | 79.68 | 63.57 | — | ||
未婚、离婚或丧偶 | 29.41 | 20.32 | 36.43 | — | ||
受教育程度 | 被登记人接受教育的最高学历 | — | — | — | 0.000b | |
未上过学 | 25.66 | 16.71 | 32.57 | — | ||
小学和初中 | 65.12 | 71.26 | 60.38 | — | ||
高中 | 5.86 | 7.62 | 4.50 | — | ||
大学及以上 | 3.36 | 4.41 | 2.55 | — | ||
户口状态 | 基于“普查时点居住地”和“户口登记地”两个问题,以普查时点居住地与户口登记地不处于同一县级单元区分“本地户口”与“外地户口”,根据“户口性质”判断“农业户口”与“非农户口” | — | — | — | 0.000b | |
本地农业户口 | 67.49 | 63.67 | 70.45 | — | ||
本地非农户口 | 30.63 | 34.30 | 27.80 | — | ||
外地农业户口 | 1.13 | 1.22 | 1.05 | — | ||
外地非农户口 | 0.75 | 0.81 | 0.70 | — | ||
是否为独居老人 | 依据“本户应登记人数” 区分是否为独居老人,是=1,否=0 | — | — | — | 0.000b | |
否 | 92.24 | 94.22 | 90.72 | — | ||
是 | 7.76 | 5.78 | 9.28 | — | ||
人均住房面积/m2 | 本户住房面积/本户人口数 | 32.42 (23.91) | 33.17 (24.46) | 31.85 (23.46) | 0.000a | |
住房建成年代 | 1990年以前=1,1990年以后=0 | — | — | — | 0.000b | |
1990年以前 | 56.55 | 59.30 | 54.42 | — | ||
1990年以后 | 43.45 | 40.70 | 45.58 | — | ||
房屋设施 | 包括管道自来水、厨房、 厕所和洗澡设施 | — | — | — | 0.000b | |
没有、一种、两种或三种 | 66.49 | 60.38 | 71.20 | — | ||
四种 | 33.51 | 39.62 | 28.80 | — | ||
个体样本数量/人 | — | 574 725 | 250 419 | 324 306 | — | |
县区单元数量/个 | — | 2 805 | 2 805 | 2 805 | — |
Table 2
Results of multi-level logistic regression models
效应和变量 | 发生比(OR)(95%置信区间) | |
---|---|---|
模型1 | 模型2 | |
固定效应部分 | ||
2010年城镇化水平(参照组:第一分位) | ||
第二分位 | 1.13(1.08~1.18)*** | |
第三分位 | 1.15(1.09~1.21)*** | |
第四分位 | 1.08(1.01~1.16)** | |
2000—2010年城镇化速度(参照组:第一分位) | ||
第二分位 | 1.03(0.99~1.08) | |
第三分位 | 1.07(1.02~1.12)*** | |
第四分位 | 1.08(1.04~1.13)*** | |
社会剥夺指数 | 1.00(0.99~1.00) | 0.99(0.98~1.00)** |
人均GDP的对数 | 1.07(1.04~1.10)*** | 1.05(1.01~1.08)*** |
每千人拥有的医院卫生院床位数 | 1.00(1.00~1.00)*** | 1.00(1.00~1.00)*** |
PM2.5的平均质量浓度 | 1.00(1.00~1.00)*** | 1.00(1.00~1.00)*** |
距海岸线距离的对数 | 0.92(0.91~0.93)*** | 0.92(0.91~0.93)*** |
1981—2010年累年平均气温 | 1.01(1.01~1.01)*** | 1.01(1.01~1.01)*** |
平均海拔/m(参照组:<500) | ||
500~1 500 | 1.05(1.01~1.10)** | 1.07(1.02~1.12)*** |
1 500~2 500 | 1.15(1.07~1.23)*** | 1.15(1.07~1.23)*** |
≥2 500 | 0.98(0.88~1.09) | 1.02(0.92~1.14) |
年龄/岁(参照组:60~69) | ||
70~79 | 0.43(0.43~0.44)*** | 0.43(0.43~0.44)*** |
≥80 | 0.25(0.24~0.25)*** | 0.25(0.24~0.25)*** |
男性(参照组:女性) | 1.22(1.21~1.24)*** | 1.22(1.21~1.24)*** |
少数民族(参照组:汉族) | 1.01(0.98~1.04) | 1.01(0.98~1.04) |
婚姻状况(参照组:有配偶) | 0.72(0.71~0.73)*** | 0.72(0.71~0.73)*** |
受教育程度(参照组:未上过学) | ||
小学和初中 | 1.50(1.48~1.53)*** | 1.50(1.48~1.53)*** |
高中 | 1.78(1.73~1.83)*** | 1.78(1.73~1.83)*** |
大学及以上 | 1.85(1.79~1.92)*** | 1.85(1.79~1.92)*** |
户口状态(参照组:本地农业户口) | ||
本地非农户口 | 1.07(1.05~1.09)*** | 1.08(1.06~1.09)*** |
外地农业户口 | 1.19(1.13~1.26)*** | 1.19(1.13~1.26)*** |
外地非农户口 | 1.10(1.03~1.17)*** | 1.10(1.03~1.18)*** |
独居老人(参照组:否) | 0.85(0.83~0.88)*** | 0.85(0.83~0.88)*** |
人均住房面积 | 1.01(1.00~1.01)*** | 1.00(1.00~1.00)*** |
住房建成年代(参照组:1990年以后) | 0.91(0.90~0.92)*** | 0.91(0.90~0.92)*** |
房屋设施(参照组:没有、一种、两种或三种) | 1.27(1.25~1.29)*** | 1.27(1.25~1.29)*** |
随机效应部分 | ||
组间方差 | 0.12(0.12~0.13)*** | 0.12(0.11~0.13)*** |
县样本量 | 2 805 | 2 805 |
个体样本量 | 574 725 | 574 725 |
AIC | 713 084.69 | 713 037.58 |
log likelihood | -356 516.34 | -356 486.79 |
LR test | 9 848.47*** | 9 373.18*** |
ICC | 0.04 | 0.04 |
Table 3
Results of the propensity score-matching
变量 | 平均处理效应ATT(标准误) | |
---|---|---|
近邻匹配(k=1) | 卡尺匹配 | |
处理组(2010年城镇化水平/%) | ||
>25 | 0.445 ***(0.014) | 0.445 ***(0.014) |
>50 | 0.479 ***(0.008) | 0.479 ***(0.008) |
>75 | 0.506 ***(0.009) | 0.506 ***(0.009) |
处理组(2000—2010年城镇化速度/%) | ||
>25 | 0.433 ***(0.002) | 0.433 ***(0.002) |
>50 | 0.434 ***(0.002) | 0.434***(0.002) |
>75 | 0.433 ***(0.002) | 0.433 ***(0.002) |
Table 4
Results of robustness tests
效应和变量 | 发生比(OR)(95%置信区间) | ||
---|---|---|---|
模型S1:将夜间灯光灰度 值>0的地区视为城镇 | 模型S2:将夜间灯光灰度 值>10的地区视为城镇 | 模型S3:以人口 密度衡量城镇化 | |
2010年城镇化水平(参照组:第一分位) | |||
第二分位 | 1.12(1.06~1.17)*** | 1.13(1.08~1.19)*** | 0.96(0.92~1.01) |
第三分位 | 1.20(1.13~1.27)*** | 1.17(1.11~1.23)*** | 1.09(1.03~1.16)*** |
第四分位 | 1.08(1.01~1.17)** | 1.10(1.02~1.18)** | 0.98(0.91~1.04) |
2000—2010年城镇化速度(参照组:第一分位) | |||
第二分位 | 1.01(0.97~1.06) | 1.03(0.98~1.07) | 1.02(0.97~1.06) |
第三分位 | 1.01(0.96~1.06) | 1.08(1.03~1.13)*** | 1.10(1.05~1.14)*** |
第四分位 | 1.02(0.97~1.08) | 1.04(0.99~1.09)* | 1.09(1.03~1.14)*** |
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