Abstract:

Since 2010, the South China Sea dispute has been expanding and becoming increasingly complicated, gradually forming a situation in which neighboring countries around the South China Sea are encroaching on islands and reefs, and extra-regional countries are becoming widely involved, thus increasingly pushing the South China Sea issue toward internationalization. We analyze the relationship between cooperation and conflict among countries (regions) around the South China Sea and explore the reasons for the complication of the South China Sea issue more deeply, especially the information production power competition around the issue, which is the bridge between information power and discourse power, as well as the link between cyberspace and physical space. Further, our findings can help China understand the current situation in the South China Sea and avoid strategic miscalculations. Based on the GDELT(Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone) database, we extracted event data about the South China Sea issue from 2013 to 2021 and used the chronologically constrained clustering method to divide the South China Sea issue into a period of rising conflicts (2013-2018) and a period of extra-regional involvement (after 2019). We used the social network analysis method to explore the relationship between cooperation and conflict among countries (regions) involved in the South China Sea issue and the information production networks behind them. We found the following: (1) During the period of rising conflicts, the main subjects of cooperation and conflict regarding the South China Sea issue were mainly countries (regions) around this sea. (2) During the period of extra-regional involvement, the United States, Britain, Australia, and other extra-regional countries have allied and cooperated to besiege China regarding the South China Sea issue, and China has become the core of the network of conflicting relations while cooperating closely with intra-regional countries. The complex conflict relationship and shrinking cooperation relationship contradict our current perception regarding the South China Sea issue to stop the chaos and resolve the issue, reflecting the increasingly profound role of information power. (3) In the information production network, the United States, Britain, Australia, and other countries dominate the information production and processing, while China and other intra-regional countries (regions) are gradually marginalized from the information production network handling the South China Sea issue, indicating that the issue has become a wrestling ground for various information actors. The above results seem to indicate that the South China Sea issue of "reduced cooperation and widespread conflict" is the result of the involvement of extra-regional countries such as the United States, Britain, and Australia in the information power competition over the South China Sea, and that information power geopolitical actors in cyberspace can use their information power ties to influence the expression of the relationships among countries in physical space.

Key words: South China Sea issue, information power, political geography, social network analysis, GDELT