Abstract:

Xinhui Municipality is situated at the southwest of the Pearl River Delta.For studying the ecological-economic problems the all-round investigation,case investigation and random sampling in the municipality have been made for two years.It is found that the cultivated area and seeded area have shown a tendency to decrease.Per hectare yield increased by a big margin,but the total grain output increased by a small margin.The growth rate of grain is slower than the natural increase rate of population,then the per capita grain output has shown a tendency to decrease.Three Grey Models [GM (1,1)] are set up to predict the future tendency.It is estimated that the cultivated area and grain yield will further decrease.Per capita cultivated land will be only 0.0252.hectare in A.D.2010,even under the lowest lint for people's living need.

Key words: Cultivated land, Grain yield, Grey Model