TROPICAL GEOGRAPHY ›› 2015, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (3): 324-333.

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Precipitation in Shanghai under Climate Change

WANG Xuan1,YIN Zhan’e1,CHI Xiaoxiao1,SUN Yuke1,YIN Jie2   

  1. (1.Department of Geography,Shanghai Normal University,Shanghai 200234,China;2.Institute of Tourism and Urban Management, Zhejiang Industrial and Commercial University,Hangzhou 310018,China)
  • Online:2015-06-05 Published:2015-06-05

Abstract:

In order to understand the characteristics of precipitation under climate change, develop and manage the water resources rationally in Shanghai, the daily rainfall data during 1961-2010 of 10 meteorological stations and high-precision underlying surface data were used. The inter-annual and seasonal variations of different precipitation indexes in recent 50 years in Shanghai were analyzed by the methods of cumulative departure, smoothing averages, linear trend analysis, Statistical down-Scaling Model, Mann-Kendall mutation analysis and so on. Besides, percentile and DFA methods were used to define extreme precipitation threshold and the extreme precipitation frequency were added. Combined with DEM and land-use data, spatial distribution of high risk areas of flood disasters in Shanghai was studied by using the spatial analysis based on ArcGIS platform. The research indicates that: Firstly, there was an increasing trend about precipitation intensity, mainly displayed in that the frequency under rainstorm decreased while the amount increased, and the frequency increased in rainstorm as well as heavy rain, but there were significant time and intensity differences in urban, suburban and outer suburban districts; Secondly, there was an obvious increasing trend in precipitation amount in summer and winter and annual increasing rate of precipitation amount sliding 5 years reached 56.23 and 16.71 mm/10 a while spring and autumn experienced an unobvious decreasing trend; Thirdly, it is predicted that the precipitation would still experience a stable increase before 2050, but after that, the total amount of precipitation would reduce significantly and there would be an obvious mutation in 2075; Finally, it is expected that the upper reaches of the Huangpu River area would experience a much higher frequency of extreme precipitation and the high risk areas of flood disasters mainly would be distributed in the upper reaches and estuary of the Huangpu River.

Key words: climate change, precipitation characteristics, differences between urban and suburban, rain flood hazard, Shanghai