Abstract: A diversified product structure is the force for regional economic growth, exerting profound economic impact on the sustainable development within a specific region. To promote the upgrading of regional production structure is to break through the unitary development model and create a new path. Based on the export trade data of Guangdong’s prefectural cities during 2002-2011, this paper discusses the relationship between Guangdong’s “Double Transfer” Policy and the evolution path of its export structure. The results show that the industrial transfer policy has achieved a certain effect on promoting the evolution of the regional product structure. For the regions that are affected by the transfer-out policy, the product structure there will experience a remarkable upgrading; for the regions that are affected by the transfer-in policy, there will be a push on the evolution of local products. Evidence also implies that the intensity and mechanism of the different factors in the transfer-in and transfer-out of industries varies. According to statistical results, factors connected to the transfer-in of industries such as the level of economic development and the labor cost of the region have little to do with the transfer-out of industries. Therefore, we have to discriminate between transfer-in and transfer-out and be aware of the similarities and differences when analyzing industrial transfer policy to develop effective policies. Industrial transfer policy can not only change the regional product structure, but also bridge the economic gaps between different regions. Considering the status quo of China, less developed and developed regions should jointly develop industrial transfer policies in order to change the current situation of path dependence and production structure lockup due to historical reasons, and to achieve “regional economic integration”. Underdeveloped regions can draw on the product paths from developed regions to seek new growth momentum, thereby closing the space differences across the regions; at the same time, the developed regions can spare the precious land resources by moving its path-dependent industries out, thereby upgrading its product structure. In the development of industrial transfer policies, the industries to be transferred in and out should be carefully decided based on existing local product structure. The calculation of regional technology density shows that the industries compatible with local technologies show greater advantages for transfer-in.

Key words: industrial transfer policy, evolutionary economic geography, double transfer, path dependence, relatedness, Guangdong Province