Table of Content

    24 November 2014, Volume 34 Issue 6 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Process of the Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature of Guangzhou (Tianhe) over the Last 100 Years
    TANG Chaolian,CHEN Tegu,CAI Bing,YU Kefu
    2014, 34 (6):  729-736. 
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    The meteorological observation of Guangzhou (station No.59287) began at Guangdong Customs Observatory in 1908, the address of which was previously unkown. Since then the meteorological observatory of Guangzhou has moved for six times. Through the comparative analysis, predecessors considered that there was 0.9℃ difference on the annual mean surface air temperature among different meteorological observatories due to the reasons of terrain and environment (for example, Tianhe observatory and Wushan observatory in 1996). The variation rate of annual mean surface air temperature in Guangzhou was 0.35℃/100 a during 1908-2008 based on inhomogeneity of surface air temperature series. According to the practical data, firstly, this paper found that the exact geographical position of Guangdong Customs Meteorological Observatory was 23°06′N, 113°05′E by investigating and verifying the buildings, comparing maps in different periods and visiting the masses, and correcting the error positioning of 23°06′N, 113°18′E in the references. Secondly, it concluded that the annual mean surface air temperature of the Customs Observatory was 0.392℃ higher than that of Tianhe observatory through comparative analysis, regression analysis, contrasting analysis, difference revisal, and confidence test on the annual mean surface air temperature. Thirdly, it considered that the annual mean surface air temperature of Tianhe observatory could be replaced by that of Panyu observatory after 1998 to research the trend of climate change according to comparative analysis on synchronous data during 1960-1997. Through a trend analysis of these continuous, representative, homogeneity annual mean surface air temperature serie, this paper concluded that the rise rate of annual air temperature in Tianhe was 1.75℃/100 a. This rate (recorded from 1914-2013) was higher than that of Global annual mean surface air temperature (0.72℃/100 a) during the same period because of urban heat island effect derived from rapid urbanization of Guangzhou.

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    Applicability of Evapotranspiration Equations for the Pearl River Basin
    HUANG Qiang,CHEN Zishen
    2014, 34 (6):  737-745. 
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    Based on the daily meteorological data from 42 stations in the Pearl River basin, different evapotranspiration methods including FAO56 Penman-Monteith (PM), Priestley-Taylor, Hargreaves-Samani and Thornthwaite equations were compared to find out the most applicable one for calculating evapotranspiration in the basin. Then the calculation precision of PM formula under the conditions of limited data was analyzed. The results indicate that PM equation is the best one whose calculating result is stable for all seasons and districts and close to the observation data, and thus would be the most suitable formula for the evapotranspiration calculation in the Pearl River basin. To evaluate the influence of limited data on the calculation precision of PM formula, anyone of the data of relative humidity, sunshine duration, wind speed and pressure is assumed to be missing. Among the examined variables, sunshine duration is the most sensitive one to the calculating result, and wind speed follows. By setting a modified factor, the PM equation only based on the temperature data (PMT) still has a high calculation precision. As a result, PMT equation can be an ideal method for evapotranspiration calculation in the Pearl River basin when some variables of data are lacking.

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    Probability Distribution Behaviors of Extreme Precipitation Indices Based on Copula Function in Guangdong Beijiang River Basin
    LIU Zhanmin,CHEN Zishen,HUANG Qiang
    2014, 34 (6):  758-766. 
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    The Extreme Precipitation Indices R1d and R5d at 18 meteorological stations over Guangdong Beijiang River Basin for recent fifty years were analyzed by using 9 probability distribution functions. Estimate of parameters was performed by using the L-moment technique. Test of goodness of fit was done based on K-S, RMSE and PPCC for the optimal linear frequency distribution before evaluating the 50 and 100 years return periods values. Based on the Genest-Rivest method, AIC and the tail dependency of random variable, GH copula were used for R1d-R5d connecting function. The Kendall rank correlation coefficient method was used to estimate the parameters of GH copula function. Then we comprehensively analyzed the spatial variability of joint probability distribution of the two indices. The results are shown as follows: 1) In terms of the 50 and 100 years return periods precipitation of R1d or R5d, the probabilities at Wengyuan and Qingyuan are greater than those in other places; The probabilities of R1d and R5d occurring in the same year in north-central areas are greater than those in other areas. 2) The encountering probabilities of R1d-R5d rapidly decreased along with decreasing design frequency of R5d under a specific R1d frequency; whereas the encountering probabilities significantly increased along with decreasing design frequency of R1d under a specific R5d frequency.

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    Characteristics of the Sharp Turn from Drought to Flood over Guangxi in Summer of 2013
    HE Hui,LU Hong
    2014, 34 (6):  767-775. 
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    By using the global reanalysis data provided by NCEP/NCAR, and the daily precipitation data at 88 national meteorological observational stations of Guangxi provided by Guangxi Meteorological Information Center, the phenomenon and its circulation background of the sharp turn from drought to flood in summer in 2013 over Guangxi were briefly analyzed. The conclusions are as follows: 1) In summer of 2013, the total precipitation over Guangxi was almost normal, but a sharp turn from drought to flood occurred. The mean precipitation from the 31st to the 44th pentad was 36% less than normal, while that from the 45th to the 48th pentad was 1.4 times more, and the kickpoint was at the 45th pentad (the 3rd pentad in August). 2) The mean circulation from the 31st to the 44th pentad showed the typical characteristics of drought, such as in middle and high latitude areas of Eurasian, the western Pacific subtropical high was more intense and controlled Guangxi, the moisture flux divergence over south China was positive anomaly. And those from the 45th to the 48th pentad showed the obvious characteristics of flood over the lower troposphere, Guangxi was located south of the western Pacific subtropical high, and controlled by ITCZ, the wind fields over south China were cyclonic anomaly, the moisture flux divergence was negative anomaly, and convection enhanced. 3) The atmospheric circulation changed at the 45th pentad. The western Pacific Subtropical high along 110° E jumped to north from 25° N to 30-35° N abruptly. The ITCZ moved northward with the Subtropical high, and remained stable along the line of Burma-south China-the Philippines. Guangxi was influenced by typhoons, and the weather rapidly turned from drought to flood.

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    Variation of Stable Isotopes in Pan Water Evaporation Process in Changsha
    HUANG Huang,ZHANG Xinping,LI Guang,HUANG Yimin,LIAO Mengsi
    2014, 34 (6):  776-782. 
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    The fractionation of stable isotope in evaporation water is highly related to meteorological factors. Four groups of outdoor experiments were conducted in Changsha during summer in order to understand the stable isotopes variation in residual water in the process of evaporation and the relation between ratio of water isotopes and temperature, humidity. Two pans of water with different isotope value were put in thermometer shelters individually to evaporate. The thermometer shelters secured the pan water to keep off the rain directly. During the evaporation program we took water samples each 2 or 3 days from each pan and recorded the residual water mass at the same time. The result of evaporation experiments in Changsha shows that: The stable isotopes in residual water were enriched along with the decrease of residual water mass but showed a decrease during precipitation. The relation between residual water ratio f and δ2H, δ18O fit the Rayleigh model well neglecting the disturbance of precipitation. Higher temperature brought stronger fractionation and higher variation of isotope value in residual water. The value of isotopes in residual water showed a negative correlation with relative humidity especially in the later period of evaporation. It might be caused by the tiny water drop in the air during the precipitation. The slope and intercept of evaporation line were much lower than the precipitation line’s but close to those of the evaporation line of the Xiangjiang River. It is suggested that evaporation pan experiment could simulate evaporation in nature to some extent.

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    Characteristics of Precipitation and Temperature Variation and Their Correlation with ENSO in Anhui Province during 1960-2012
    ZENG Ting,YANG Dong,GUO Peipei,SONG Miao,MA Lu,XUE Shuangyi
    2014, 34 (6):  783-793. 
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    Based on the precipitation and air temperature data in Anhui Province during 1960-2012, this paper takes such methods as linearity trend estimation, least square method, inverse distance weighted, and correlation analysis to study spatial and temporal variations of climate and their correlation with ENSO in Anhui during the past 53 years. The results are indicated as follows: 1) The precipitation and air temperature in Anhui were increasing annually, the growth rates were 0.93 mm/a and 0.02℃/a, respectively, the seasonal precipitation showed various trends, the rainfall both in summer and winter was increasing, while that in spring and fall was decreasing; the change of seasonal mean air temperature showed a statistically significant increasing trend, in which the greatest increase of average temperature occurred in spring; 2) The decadal variability of rainfall characteristics was not obvious in different seasons, the precipitation in summer accounted for about 45.95% of the annual; the decadal variability of annual and seasonal temperature was increasing with fluctuation trend, different from the one of precipitation; 3) The temporal and spatial difference of precipitation was obvious, the decrease amplitude of precipitation in summer and winter, and the increase amplitude of precipitation in spring gradually increased from north to south; it was not regular for spatial variation of temperature, but Suzhou was the area where the rising range of the annual and seasonal temperature was the largest; 4) Monthly as well as annual precipitation and temperature in Anhui Province had a certain relevance with the anomaly of sea surface temperature of Nino 3.4 area and southern oscillation, the relationship between the precipitation of March, September and November and the anomaly of sea surface temperature of Nino 3.4 area and southern oscillation was significant, the temperature in September was significantly influenced by the anomaly of sea surface temperature and southern oscillation, and the anomaly of sea surface temperature had even more impact on the annual precipitation and annual average temperature; 5) In the past 53 years, 16 El Nino and 15 La Nina events occurred, the impact of La Nina events on precipitation was more obvious than that of El Nino, but both La Nina and El Nino events had relatively weak influence on temperature.

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    Karst Development and Influencing Factors in Typical Karst Collapse Districts of Guangzhou
    ZHENG Xiaozhan,GUO Yu,DAI Jianling,LI Jingjing,CHEN Xiaoyue
    2014, 34 (6):  794-803. 
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    Geological disasters, karst development characteristics and karst controlling factors were studied in three typical karst collapse areas (Xiamao, Jinshazhou and Datansha) in Guangzhou City. Through field investigation in the three areas and collecting the related geological background information, by using methods such as statistical analysis and comparative analysis, the following understanding can be recognized. 1) The highest direct economic losses caused by geological disasters were in Jinshazhou and the largest amount of people affected by the disasters was in Datansha, while the impact of those in Xiamao was relatively small in view of the size and extent of the geological disasters; 2) Covered limestone was the main material basis of the collapse and longitudinally karst development showed different characteristics in different areas. Karst development in Xiamao was in a strong degree, while that in the other two areas in medium-strong degree; 3) Geological faults in the three areas developed commonly, faults controlled the direction of karst, and fractures cutting the rock crushing and increasing the contacting area between groundwater and soluble rock, as the role of karst groundwater was the dominant factor affecting the scale and size of karst. The better the conditions of hydrodynamic was, the more the karst development degree would be.

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    Risk Assessment and Temporal-Spatial Changes of Collapse, Landslide and Debris Flow in Guangdong
    ZHAO Hongting,LIU Xilin,YU Chengjun,SHANG Zhihai
    2014, 34 (6):  804-813. 
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    Collapse, landslide and debris flow are common geological hazards in Guangdong, China. To understand the temporal and spatial changes of the risk of collapse, landslide and debris flow in the province and their driving factors are of great significance for the regional development and hazard prevention and reduction. As it is difficult to obtain the value of land resources directly, in this paper, based on existed evaluation model on debris flow hazard’s vulnerability, land resource value is estimated indirectly by using the regression equation between land value and the output values of farming, forestry, animal husbandry, side-line production and fishery, and related industries. Thus the problem of quantitative evaluation of vulnerability can be solved. Temporal and spatial variations of collapse, landslide and debris flow risk in Guangdong during the 10 years from 2000 to 2010 are analysed comparatively. The results show that in 2010, the average risk of collapse, landslide and debris flow in Guangdong was 0.366, and the areal weighted average risk was 0.363, increasing by 0.017 and 0.014, respectively, as compared with those in 2000. In 2010, the number of the counties with high risk was 43, increased by 10 as compared with that in 2000. In 2010, the area with high risk was 89 262 km2, which was 24 301 km2 more than that in 2000. The high risk area mainly increased in the Pearl River Delta region, and expanded to coastal area. The economic and social development of Guangdong has significantly increased, which also causes an increase of the risk of collapse, landslide and debris flow, as well as the changes of the temporal and spatial patterns of the risk. The change of the economic and social conditions is the main driving factor for the temporal and spatial variations of collapse, landslide and debris flow risk in the province.

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    The Global Connectivity of China and Japan with Respect to International Inter-Governmental Organizations
    SU Nian,XUE Desheng
    2014, 34 (6):  814-822. 
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    As one of the most important actors in world affairs, international inter-governmental Organizations (IGOs) provide a new angle for understanding the process of globalization since World War II. Using IGOs’ siting information and a series of interlocking network models, this article calculated China and Japan’s global connectivity, respectively, and analyzed their spatial distribution of connections. As the results show that: 1) the total number of IGOs in these two countries is similar, but global connectivity of China is only 70 percent of that of Japan; 2) the top 25 connected countries with the two are mostly located in Asia and Africa, but Japan has tighter connection with them; 3) Japan’s connection with European countries, such as Germany, Belgium et al. is very strong, while China’s is weak. It is concluded that Japan has had both wider and deeper interactions with other countries in world political system over the past half centuries. It is suggested that China needs to develop more IGOs, especially headquarter ones in its major cities, such as Shanghai, Guangzhou, to improve its political connectivity across the world.

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    Construction and Evaluation of Affordable Housing in Guangzhou City
    CHEN Hongsheng,LI Zhigang
    2014, 34 (6):  823-830. 
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    In order to understand the development of China’s affordable housing, a case study was applied to analyze the construction of such specific housing in Guangzhou City, the capital of Guangdong Province. We collected the main qualitative data from a total of 240 residents with a stratified random sampling method by means of questionnaire in 12 affordable housing communities of Guangzhou. We also used the Guangzhou statistical yearbook data and the 6th population census data to examine the differences between urban housing and affordable housing. The status of affordable housing was also evaluated. We evaluated the social effects of this mode of affordable housing construction. In this paper, we find that the quality of housing improved quickly after 1990s. However, the homeownership rate remains low. The affordable housing system is by no means perfect, and the demand for affordable housing increases in recent years. In fact, informal living space such as urban villages plays an important role in the housing of low-end residents. At the community level, we find that the residents of affordable housing have a high level of satisfaction. However, the current affordable housing construction mode is unsustainable as it neglects community and residents’ social integration, as the lack of development opportunities may result in the agglomeration of new poverty and bring about the production of new ghetto-like areas.

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    Genetic Characteristics of Hakka Cultural Landscape: A Case Study of Yanling, Hunan
    CAO Shuaiqiang,DENG Yunyuan,YANG Zaitian,HE Qinghua,LI Min
    2014, 34 (6):  831-841. 
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    In this paper, a representative Hakka settlement in extended hilly area of southern China-Yanling County in Hunan, is taken as an example to extract gene features of Hakka cultural landscape by using feature extraction technology from the angles of residential buildings, traditions and customs, local dialects, patriarchal system, and folk beliefs. The results show that: 1) The residence of the Hakkas in Yanling county is open castle of clan with blood relationship, where the residents may have intermarriage relation with local ethnic minorities such as She, Li, and Yao, as the Hakka ancestors needed to seek survival and development environment and adapt themselves to local conditions when they migrated into a new area. But the Yanling Hakkas still basically retain their own spirit and custom, and take Shennong culture of Yan Emperor as their cultural reference, forming a unique Yanling Hakka culture. 2) In different development courses the landscape gene of Yanling Hakka culture has its tangible expression vectors such as clothing, food, residence, means of traveling and trading, as well as its intangible expression vectors such as local language, patriarchal system, folk beliefs, local customs, and culture and art.

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    Routing Optimization and Simulation of Logistics Distribution Based on GIS Technology
    HAN Fuzhuang,CHEN Yingbiao,QIAN Qinglan,XIE Jinpeng
    2014, 34 (6):  842-849. 
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    With the rapid development of the logistics industry, it is a key issue that how to reduce the cost of logistics distribution in the fierce market competition and improve the competitiveness of commodities. Taking the logistics distribution of supermarket chain stores in Haizhu District in Guangzhou as an example, according to the road network dataset of Guangzhou in 2012, and using the VRPTW model (Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows) and the network analysis module of the tabu search algorithm, this paper made a study on routing optimization and simulation for logisticcs distribution under the situations of smooth traffic flow and traffic congestion. The results showed that in the case of smooth traffic, the three distribution centers only used five cars, spending 29 hours and 10 minutes, driving 47 834.1 m, to complete the distribution of 4 450 goods for the 26 distribution points. But traffic jams had a significant impact on logistics punctual delivery, with the increase of the congestion time, the entire logistics process was increasingly affected. In the traffic congestion situation, the distribution route should be optimized to avoid congestion sections. Although the total mileage of the optimized distribution route was 5 182 m more and the driving time 28 minutes more than those of the original route with smooth traffic, the optimized route was more desirable, as compared with the waiting time on the congested road. With optimizing the distribution route, the distribution centers could save cost, save resource and reduce time loss in the circulation links and then could effectively improve the efficiency and quality of logistics distribution service.

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    Spatial Distribution and Driving Force of Manufacturing in Guangzhou
    JIANG Li
    2014, 34 (6):  850-858. 
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    Manufacturing is one of the main driving forces of urban economic development. Thus, the distribution of manufacturing is a hot-topic to the academics. This paper specifically makes a case study of Guangzhou to explore the distribution of the manufacturing industry in the city with Concentration Index, Location Quotient, and spatial analysis based on the second economic census data in 2008, and analyses the formation reason of the distribution, as well as the relationship between urban spatial structure and the distribution. In conclusion, the paper proposes that Guangzhou’s manufacturing is mainly distributed in the inner-suburbs such as Haizhu district, Liwan district and Luogang district. The manufacturing in the CBD has already declined. The manufacturing employment density increases from the city centre to suburbs, but the increase distance is not far from the city centre. The suburbanization phenomenon has appeared in the eastern and southern areas, especially in the eastern area which has become the manufacturing centre of Guangzhou. The manufacturing distribution density in four circle layers from high to low in turn is: the core circle layer>the inner circle layer>the outer circle layer>the outer circle. The manufacturing in the core circle layer has the highest employment density. The agglomeration degree of manufacturing is high. The highest spatial cluster level area is the inner-suburb. Next is the outer-suburb. The lowest is the city centre. Guangzhou manufacturing spatial structure is composed of Xiagang manufacturing centre, Nanshitou and Donghuan manufacturing subcentres. The manufacturing has had a large impact on the formation and development of the urban spatial structure of Guangzhou. It is not only the main driving force for Xinhua and Xiagang employment subcentres, but also the force to promote Guangzhou’s suburbanization. Four factors influence the spatial distribution of manufacturing in Guangzhou: the compensation system of Chinese land acquisition, the policy of Guangzhou government, the construction of Guangzhou industrial development zone, and the industrial agglomeration effect.

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    Land Use Change Scenarios Simulation in Hunan Province Based on the SD Model
    XU Lianfang,ZHANG Jianxin,CHEN Kun,XIAO Li,XING Xudong
    2014, 34 (6):  859-867. 
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    The most significant characteristic of system dynamics is that it is able to deal with the high-order, non-linear, multiple-feedback, and complicated time-varying problems of the system. Land use is a non-lineal dynamic process which is correlated with a mutual reaction between natural, social and economic factors. This paper simulated and forecasted the land demand of Hunan province under different development modes by using SD model. The results showed that: 1) The demand for construction land under different development modes tended to increase, and that for other kinds of land varied greatly especially for waters and cultivated land. 2) Model B of stable development situation was the most ideal according to the requirements of sustainable development strategy; under this model, the demands for all kinds of land were similar to the present land use conditions, which did not cause too much stress to the demands for all kinds of land. 3) The present situation of land use in Hunan Province could fully meet the demands for various kinds of land at the low speed development mode, but the premise would be to reduce the level of consumption and market self-sufficiency rate. The demands for farmland and waters would exceed the present level under high speed development mode. 4) Under the present food consumption structure, the increase of food demand due to the population and economic growth would put a lot of pressure to cultivated land demand if we could not improve the yield of grain.

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