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    30 September 2015, Volume 35 Issue 5 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Discussion Forum of“One Belt and One Road”Strategy:Based on the Perspective of Geography
    ZHU Hong,AN Ning,GE Hanwen,HUANG Gengzhi,ZHANG Hong’ou,WANG Yang,WANG Changjian,SU Yongxian,WU Qitao
    2015, 35 (5):  607-620. 
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    Inter-Subjectivity Consensus, Geopolitical Structure and Building “One Belt and One Road”
    2015, 35 (5):  621-627.  doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002766
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    In 2013, Chinese president Xi Jinping proposed a major initiative of building “One Belt and One Road”, which has got much attention from domestic and foreign societies. Based on the constructivism theory and method, this paper analyzed the text of the vision and the action and other literatures, summed up four major consensus of building the Belt and the Road among the main bodies. Combining with the analysis of the current and future development trend of geopolitical structure, we put the material factors, interest and inter-subjectivity into the “G2+” structure, and analyzed the causal and construction mechanism of such structure on building “One belt and One Road”. On this basis, the paper discussed how the countries, such as the United States, Russia, India and other countries along the belt and the road define their self-identity and interest. The set of different countries’ identities and interests will have a major impact on building “One Belt and One Road”. Overall, to build the “One Belt and One Road” will be a long process. At the local level, building the “One Belt and One Road” should focus on Central Asia, Africa, Europe and the Middle East in the near future, and should promote the construction of the Belt and the Road from far and near. At the top designing level, we should broadcast positively and guide according to the current four consensuses in the “One Belt and One Road” among the main bodies.

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    Historical Evolution of China’s Maritime Silk Road
    SITU Shangji,XU Guiling
    2015, 35 (5):  628-636.  doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002761
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    Maritime Silk Road, with peace, friendship, economic equality, culture, and diplomacy communication as its purpose, has had a long history in China and a widespread impact on the world. Maritime Silk Road originated before the Qin Dynasty and officially opened in the Qin and Han dynasties, when Xuwen and Hepu became the departure ports. Merchant ships sailed over the Indian Ocean, generating the first great cultural exchange in the world with the dissemination of Buddhism and new crop varieties as its main contents. The period of Sui, Tang and the Five Dynasties was a prosperous period of Maritime Silk Road, when Guangzhou port became a worldwide port where domestic and foreign merchants gathered. In the Song and Yuan Dynasties, Maritime Silk Road had further development and prosperity, Guangzhou and Quanzhou gained the position of principal port and established close business relations with the Arab world. The worship of Mazu produced, who is thought to be the Goddess of Sea in China. The incoming of Champa rice, etc., profoundly changed the land use pattern of China. In the Ming dynasty marked by Zhenghe’s seven expeditions to the western seas, Maritime Silk Road began to decline. As some new crops such as sweet potato and corn were introduced, and Matteo Ricci did missionary work and brought western science, technology to China, Macao and Zhaoqing became two cultural exchange centers, forming a bridge between eastern and western civilization, thus causing a revolution in China's grain production and cultural changes of some ideas. In the early stage of the Qing dynasty, the policy of secluding China from the outside world was carried out, Guangzhou (Canton) became the only foreign trade port in China. The newly developed sea routes brought about the rise of Thirteen Hongs (the thirteen commercial firms) in Guangzhou. The two-way communication between Chinese and western culture was active and the maritime silk road reached its height. However, after the Opium War of 1840, the nature of the trade between China and West was completely changed, the maritime Silk Road, which had lasted for more than 2000 years, had a full stop.

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    Regional Effects of the Maritime Silk Road in Lingnan from A Historical-Geographical Perspective
    LI Fan
    2015, 35 (5):  637-645.  doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002774
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    As a trans-local geographical phenomenon, the Maritime Silk Road involves the temporal-spatial mobility of material, commodity, technology, culture and migrants, as well as their regional effects in Lingnan. The paper tries to explore these effects from a historical-geographical perspective based on an analysis of historical literature. The findings indicate that the Maritime Silk Road benefited Lingnan and areas bordering between rivers (or seas) and the land with great geographical marginal effects, as foreign trade, as well as the over-flowing, melting and exchanging of elements engendered in this process, had brought about not only changes in the spatial structure and functions of the whole Lingnan region, but also regional effects in land use, economic geography, settlement geography and socio-cultural geography. Therefore, against the background of the state strategy of the Belt and Road Initiative, this historical-geographical perspective has realistic implications in the practice of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road in Lingnan.

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    Development of “China Tourism Special Zone” in Hainan Province for Responding to “One Belt and One Road” Initiative
    FU Yeqin,LI Yong
    2015, 35 (5):  646-654.  doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002770
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    Based on analysis of related literature, the paper introduces the connotation of “One Belt and One Road” Initiative, analyzes the relationship between “One Belt and One Road” Initiative and the development of tourism industry in Hainan, and researches comprehensively the present situation, connotation, background, internal conditions and external factors, and vision of the development of “China Tourism Special Zone” in Hainan Province. The study finds that: the exploration and innovation of “China Tourism Special Zone” in Hainan province mainly are reflected in development concept, development content, development form, operation mechanism and system mechanisms. The development of “China Tourism Special Zone” will benefit seizing opportunities of “One Belt and One Road” Initiative, solving existing problems of tourism industry development, and improving the overall level of tourism industry development in Hainan Province. The internal and external influencing factors of “China Tourism Special Zone” mainly display in political aspect, economic aspect, social aspect, and technology aspect, etc. Among them, advantages and opportunities are the development mainstream of “China Tourism Special Zone”. The vision development of “China Tourism Special Zone” in Hainan Province mainly is reflected in the specifications and grades, internationalization and product diversification level of the overall tourism destination in Hainan Province. Finally, according to the requirements of “One Belt and One Road” Initiative and the actual development of the tourism industry in Hainan province, the paper proposes some measures including establishing the development concepts, improving the supporting policies, advancing regional tourism cooperation, and creating the special tourism product system. The paper expands the research field of “One Belt and One Road” Initiative, and provides some references for the international development of tourism industry in Hainan Province.

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    Pattern Evolution and Challenges of Trades between China and Indo-China Peninsula Countries under the Background of “One Belt and One Road”
    YANG Maoqing,YANG Lin,HU Zhiding
    2015, 35 (5):  655-663.  doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002769
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    The Indo-China Peninsula, bordering Southwest China, is an important hub of “One Belt and One Road” and also an important channel to the Indian Ocean. Therefore, it is in a very important strategic position. In this paper, the pattern of trade between China and Indo-China Peninsula countries from 1995 to 2013 was analyzed, and trade dependence (HM index) on each other for nearly a decade was calculated. The results showed that: the trade between China and Indo-China Peninsula countries is unbalanced; Indo-China Peninsula countries depended apparently more on the Chinese market than China depended on their markets. With the implementation of “One Belt and One Road”, the trade relations between China and Indo-China Peninsula countries will face many new challenges: trade imbalance will lead to issues of domestic economic operational risk, international trade friction, suspicion, spatial imbalance of trade, etc.; individual differences in HM index will lead to differences in the position and attitude of the countries in their economic and trade cooperation with China; the foreign section of the land and sea trade channel may be blocked; and the extraterritorial powers will contend for markets with China. Actively promoting the peripheral diplomatic strategy of “amity, sincerity, mutual benefit and inclusiveness”, scientifically and reasonably adjusting the trade structure, vigorously pushing the development of trade facilitation and optimizing the economy layout of the Southwest border area is the effective strategy to rise to the new challenges of the trade relations between China and Indo-China Peninsula countries.

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    Spatial and Temporal Changes in the Pattern of Export Trade between Guangdong Province and the Countries along “One Belt and One Road”
    LIANG Yutian,LIU Lulun,LIU Lin,CHEN Weishan
    2015, 35 (5):  664-670.  doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002768
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    Since “One Belt and One Road” became the national strategy, the economic and trade contacts between China and the countries along the line have been the focus of attentions. Export trade is an important measure to stimulate economic growth and promote national influence. Guangdong Province has the highest export trade value in China and its export trade with the countries and regions along “One Belt and One Road” has been increasing. In this paper, the spatial and temporal changes in the pattern of export trade between Guangdong and the countries and regions along “One Belt and One Road” were studied using data during 2000-2014 provided by China Customs. The results showed that the export trade of Guangdong concentrated on the countries and regions (e.g., HMT, Southeast Asia, South Asia and West Asia/Middle East) along the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road Economic Belt” with a lower-than-national-average weight in export trade with the countries and regions along the “Silk Road Economic Belt”, including Eastern Europe, Central Asia and the Mongolia-Russia region; the export trade between Guangdong Province and the countries and regions along “One Belt and One Road” had been growing and the export trade pattern had changed a lot. The emerging economies had been taking up a larger proportion in the import trade of Guangdong Province while the developed countries (regions) and the developing countries with a small economic aggregate had been taking up a smaller proportion and stepping down in ranking; the major exported commodities of Guangdong were equipment manufacturing products, textiles and garments, and general equipment and instruments. Influenced by the demand structure of the countries (regions) along the line, the export commodity structures differed greatly between regions.

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    Energy Cooperation Strategy in the Pan-Beibu Gulf Economic Zone from the Perspective of Heterogeneity
    ZHANG Lin,GE Lei
    2015, 35 (5):  671-679.  doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002771
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    As one of the priority regions of the One Belt One Road Initiative and the National Major Development Strategy, the Pan-Beibu Gulf Economic Zone is an important supplier of energy in the Asian-Pacific region. It is of significance to deepen energy cooperation and achieve effective utilization of regional energy. Based on the recent situation of the energy industry in the Pan-Beibu Gulf Economic Zone, a model was developed to analyze the heterogeneity of energy production and consumption in the zone in terms of oil, natural gas, coal and electricity. The findings show that oil is losing its superiority and new clean energy has not been used effectively in the Pan-Beibu Gulf Economic Zone. As China and the Pan-Beibu Gulf Economic Zone are complementary in energy, energy cooperation between the two should be deepened. Finally, a strategic concept was proposed on energy cooperation in the Pan-Beibu Gulf Economic Zone.

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    Different Characteristics and Driving Factors of the Comprehensive Urbanization Levels of Countries in Southeast Asia
    WANG Yang,ZHANG Hong’ou,HUANG Gengzhi,JIN Lixia,LIN Liying
    2015, 35 (5):  680-686.  doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002772
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    Urbanization in Southeast Asia, which is in a rapid development stage, presents significant regional inequality. In this study, a comprehensive system was constructed to evaluate the urbanization levels of the countries in Southeast Asia from the three-dimensional perspective of: population-economy-society. Entropy technology was adopted to evaluate the comprehensive urbanization levels of 10 countries in Southeast Asia and the levels of their subsystems. Urbanization type regions were constructed according to the relationship between population urbanization and economic-social urbanization. Finally, each driving factor of the differences between the comprehensive urbanization levels was evaluated based on gray correlation degree. The results show that: 1) economy is a major subtype reflecting the comprehensive urbanization level of a country in Southeast Asia; 2) countries in Southeast Asia present significantly different characteristics in their comprehensive urbanization levels with primary, middle and maturity stages of urbanization coexisting; 3) regions of high-level coordinated development and those of low level and lagging behind coexist in the population-economic-social urbanization of Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, over-populated urbanization regions and under-populated ones coexist; 4) the main driving factors of the different comprehensive urbanization levels in Southeast Asia are globalization, market circumstance and foreign investment, which are external forces.

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    Ways to Achieve Harmony of the South China Sea
    ZHAO Huanting,YUAN Jiayi,WANG Lirong
    2015, 35 (5):  687-700.  doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002773
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    Chinese people discovered and exploited the South China Sea and Nanhai Islands the earliest. The name of the South China Sea was recorded first in the Zhou Dynasty about 3 000 years ago. Till the Qin and Han Dynasties, the shipping and trading business had been developed from the South China Sea to the Indian Ocean. The Nanhai Islands and part of South China Sea had belonged to China and marked as intermittent border in maps. The relationship among the countries surrounding the South China Sea was harmonious most of the time in history, especially during the periods of Maritime Silk Route of South China Sea in the Qin and Han Dynasties and Zheng He’s voyages to the Western Seas in Ming Dynasty. But the strong powers outside the South China Sea intruded into the Sea since the Middle Ages, that made the region be in serious disharmonious situation for a long time. From the 15th to 19th centuries, European and American colonists invaded the countries surrounding South China Sea. From the first half of the 20th century, Japanese colonist began to arrogate Nanhai Islands and annexed the whole region in the Second World War. In the latter half of the 20th century, France and the United States provoked the Indochina war and the Vietnam War respectively. Several countries surrounding the South China Sea arrogated many islands and coral reefs of the Nanhai Islands and built airports and harbors, while partitioning the territorial waters of China and seizing marine oil and gas resources. In this century, under the intervention of the United States, they are jointly contrary to China evidently. Positive diplomatic and military activities should be held in China, especially the construction of national defense by building bases in the Nanhai Islands, which will protect and exploit the oil and gas resources and fishing resources and ensure the transportation smoothly. Only when the countries surrounding the South China Sea would like to join the development, the harmony of the region could be achieved.

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    Spread, Influence, Development and Utilization of the Maritime Silk Road Culture in Leizhou
    LI Qiaoling
    2015, 35 (5):  701-707.  doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002767
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    As Leizhou is close to the sea and has many harbors, it was a necessary part of the Maritime Silk Road, In this paper, the extensive and profound spread of Maritime Silk Road Culture, and its great impact on agricultural land use, utensil and art making, traditional architecture, Buddhism- and Matsu-worshipping culture in Leizhou were presented and discussed. It was concluded that the features and style of today’s Leizhou culture, e.g. diversity, maritimity, openness, inclusiveness, adventurousness, etc. is a result of the influence of Maritime Silk Road Culture. Nowadays, the value of Leizhou’s cultural resources should be well recognized, fully explored, well integrated and appropriately utilized so as to serve the construction of the maritime part of the “One Belt One Road” project.

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    Regional Disparity in the Network Attention of China to Southeast Asia Based on Baidu Index
    JIANG Daliang,SUN Ye,YANG Tian,REN Hang,CHEN Yingying,FU Yuexing,ZHANG Zhenke
    2015, 35 (5):  708-718.  doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002754
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    The network attention is an important indicator to measure the level of links between China and the countries in Southeast Asia. Based on Baidu index of network attention in 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in China during 2010-2013, using coefficient of elasticity, Theil index calculation method and comparative network attention, from the perspectives of “information source”, “information sink” and “information channel”, this paper analyzes the characters of the regional disparity in the network attention of China to the countries in Southeast Asia. It is found that: 1) the network information of the countries in Southeast Asia is gaining more and more attention. However, in China the attention in southeast coastal areas is much more obvious than that in inland areas. The attention that the public in the Yangtze River Delta pay to Southeast Asia countries increases rapidly, and that in the Pearl River Delta has been the most; 2)The Theil index of all the administrative regions at provincial level is showing a downward tendency obviously, the attention difference inside the region is decreasing while that between regions is increasing; 3)The regional disparity in China is the main reason to cause the attention disparity of the provinces to the Southeast Asia countries; 4)In place of Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand have become the top 3 in Southeast Asia that attract the most attention from China. The development of tourism, trade and financial investment is the important factor to promote the cooperation between China and those countries. 5) The regions in China which pay more attention to Southeast Asia are distributed in the southeast coastal areas, and the countries in Southeast Asia focused by China are more distributed around the South China Sea. So the strategic position of the South China Sea is becoming increasingly important. The closest links are between the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, the Beijing- Tianjin-Hebei region and the countries in Indo-China Peninsula. In comparison with Shanghai, Guangdong has closer link with the countries in Southeast Asia, playing an important role increasingly in Trade to those countries.

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    Progress in Geo-Economic Cooperation Research from China’s Perspective: A Case Study of the Cooperation between China and ASEAN
    LI Hong,WEI Yonggui,XU Quanlong
    2015, 35 (5):  719-729.  doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002775
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    In the context of economic globalization and regional integration, geo-economic cooperation has become an indispensable part of current world economy. Taking the papers with themes of geo-economy in Chinese journals published during 1991-2015 on CNKI.NET as samples, this article firstly identifies and shows the theme distribution and evolutionary skeleton of China geo-economic theoretical exploration with CiteSpace, and then discusses the development trend of the research on China-ASEAN geo-economic cooperation. Combining with the content distribution of research topics, from the aspects of characteristics of geo-economic cooperation, influential factors and dynamic mechanism of cooperation in geo-economic areas and key focus fields of geo-economic cooperation, the authors summarize the development path and frontier of geo-economic theory in the perspective of China. It is shown that the research on China geo-economic cooperation theory is mainly around the path of geo-economic area over the past 25 years, and also gives consideration to the direction of geo-economic behavior subjects. The research fields are concentrated on three characteristics, four important domains, and multifactor dynamic analysis of geo-economics. On the basis of the above points, the paper suggests that in future the research of geo-economic area and multi-level geo-economic behavior subjects including geography, border region, culture and enterprise, should be reinforced.

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    Review on Geo-Economy between China and ASEAN
    WANG Shufang,LIU Yuli,GE Yuejing,WANG Huiwen
    2015, 35 (5):  730-738.  doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002751
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    From the perspectives of economy and geopolitics, based on literature study and comparative analysis, this paper reviews the literature of geo-economy between China and ASEAN, summarizes research characteristics, and points out research orientations. In term of research content, the current research focuses on the status quo, problems and countermeasures of CAFTA, regional economic competition and economic cooperation, while paying less attention to the evolution mechanism and intervention strategies. With regard to research perspective, the current research mainly takes economics perspective, rather than multidisciplinary one. As for research methods, the related research mainly adopts traditional qualitative and quantitative approach to do some narrative and static analysis of geo-economy between China and ASEAN, and lacks dynamic scenario simulation as well as analysis and forecast. Combing the approaches of modeling, simulation and computational experiments, future research should put emphasis on the evolution process, pattern and mechanism of geo-economy competition and cooperation between China and ASEAN, along with intervention strategies and effect evaluation, from the interdisciplinary perspectives of Geography, Economics, International Relations and Computer Science.

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    Spatial Distribution Characteristic and Strategic Situation of the Islands and Reefs Invaded by Vietnam in the Chinese Nansha Islands
    TANG Meng
    2015, 35 (5):  739-744.  doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002749
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    In this paper, an isobath bathygram (200 m interval) of the South China Sea and 11 sea charts (Scale 1﹕250 000, 1﹕800 000) of the Chinese Nansha Islands were vectorized to extract the information of depth, area and locations of the islands and reefs by using Mercator projection and CGCS 2000 coordinates with ArcGIS 10.1. It comes to the conclusion that the islands and reefs invaded by Vietnam in the Chinese Nansha Islands concentrate in two lines (one is Vertical, the other is Horizontal). Nánzǐ Dǎo (The Southwest Cay in Western sea charts), Jǐnghóng Dǎo (Sin Cowe Island), Nánwēi Dǎo (Spratly Island, Storm Island), Lìumén Jiāo (Alison Reef and Prince of Wales Bank) constitute a pattern of four primary cores and one secondary core from north to south. The islands and reefs were classified into 5 types according to their area sizes. Overlaying and reclassificating analysis was made on the acreage of the islands and reefs invaded by Vietnam in Chinese Nansha Islands. It reveals that seven islands and reefs would have more potential for land reclamation. Those are: Hóngxīu Dǎo (Namyit Island), Jǐnghóng Dǎo (Sin Cowe Island), Xī Jiāo (West Reef), Zhōng Jiāo (Central Reef), Bìshēng Jiāo (Pearson Reef), Lìumén Jīao (Alison Reef and Prince of Wales Bank) and Bó jiāo (Barque Canada Reef).

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    Impact of Environmental Regulation on the Migration of Pollution-Intensive Industries in Guangdong Province
    SHEN Jing,HUANG Shuangshuang
    2015, 35 (5):  745-752.  doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002762
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    In this article, through analyzing the statistic data during 2000-2010 in Guangdong Province, located in south-east China, the characteristics of the migration of pollution-intensive industries are investigated. It is found that the pollution-intensive industries are relocated from the PRD area to the non-PRD area, those industries including nonmetallic industrial enterprises, extractive industries, production and supply of electric power, gas and water, have dramatically migrated. It means that the provincial pollution-intensive industries migration have existed in Guangdong Province. Then, Panel Data model is further used to find out whether environmental regulation is related to the migration of pollution industries. The results show the mechanism of industries migration is affected by environmental regulation. The strictness of environment regulation drives the pollution enterprises in Pearl Delta to move away, while the laxer environment regulation in non-Pearl River Delta has effect on the spatial distributions of pollution industries. China’s energy saving policy and emission reduction policy which includes the sulfur dioxide emission reduction targets do work for the heavily air-polluting industries, such as nonmetallic industries production and supply of electric power, gas and water. Environmental regulation has been an important industrial policy, because the local governments hope to develop the local industries with the help of environmental regulations by the method of control and command.

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    Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Rural Jizifang in Urban Fringe and the Driving Mechanisms: A Case Study of the Baiyun District, Guangzhou
    LYU Fengqin,CHEN Shidong,YUAN Qifeng
    2015, 35 (5):  753-761.  doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002755
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    Employing the software of ArcGIS and SPSS, the paper, through a case study of Baiyun district, Guangzhou, explores the spatial distribution patterns of houses built with funds collected by the buyers (the so-called rural Jizifang in China) and the underlying determinants. The spatial analysis by ArcGis shows: 1) the spatio-temporal distribution of the Jizifang evolves from “dispersed patches” to “linear extension along traffic lines”. The spatial distribution greatly depends on the traffic routes; 2) the Jizifang tends to agglomerate around the administrative center of town and disperse with the distance to the center. The quantitative analysis through Spss finds: 1) the development of the Jizifang is positively correlated with the marketization degree of commercial housing; 2) policy is another important factor affecting the spatio-temporal patterns of the Jizifang and determines the tendency of its development. The forces of government, market, and community interact to push forward the formation and development of the Jizifang.

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    Evolution and Mechanism of Economic and Population Gravity Center in China during 1984-2013
    BAI Xue
    2015, 35 (5):  762-769.  doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002750
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    Economy and population are the most important constituent parts of regional social and economic development. Population transfer and economic growth among regions are two interactional parts. Spatial distribution and regional differences of economic factors and population factors can be obtained by using gravity center method to calculate the position of economic and population gravity center in China during 1984-2013. There is obvious non-equilibrium in economy distribution and population distribution in China. The aggregation positions are mainly China’s South-East coastal areas. Economic factors have larger aggregation extent in that direction; the speed of population gravity center migration is lower and the fluctuation range is smaller, which means that there are more limiting factors of population movement and there exists time-lag in the aggregation of economy and population. Suggestions for the realization of regional equilibrium of economic factors and population factors as well as the promotion of spatial coherence and optimization can be proposed from the following three aspects: the elimination of bulwarks of cross-regional population flow, the promotion of human capital and potential exploitation in backward areas and the adjustment of national major regional strategy arrangement.

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    Susceptibility Prediction of Underground Mining Collapse Based on GIS and BP Neural Network
    ZHANG Guoli,YANG Baolin,ZHANG Zhi,WANG Shaojun
    2015, 35 (5):  770-776.  doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002756
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    By using GIS, spatial analyses, including extraction, classification, valuation, statistics and normalization, were made with the data of the study areas in Chengchao Iron Mine and Daye Iron Mine of Hubei province. An index data set, including elevation, slope, strata, the recent distance from underground mines,the distribution density of underground mines, the ratio of mining thickness and depth, the buffer of alteration contact zone, groundwater depth, and the surface feature types, was constructed to assess the susceptibility of collapse in mining area. With IDL language to call Matlab neural network toolbox, the index data set of the study area in 2011and 2012 was used as input data, and the susceptibility was used as expected output. So the model based on BP neural network for predicting the susceptibility of underground mining collapse was constructed. By selecting and optimizing the training sample, this model realized the prediction for the susceptibility of collapse in 2013. The results indicated that the underground mining collapse area accounted for 89.91% of the total area highly susceptible to collapse; with the increase of the susceptibility level, the ratio of the underground mining collapse area to the susceptible area increased; the distribution of underground mining collapse was of obvious zonality, and the high susceptibility area distributed basically along the contact zone between the rock mass and the surrounding rock. The model solved the problem of nonlinear mapping in collapse prediction, as the predicted results were in accord with the actual survey. The results show that BP neural network model and GIS technology for evaluating the susceptibility of underground mining collapse would have a certain feasibility.

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    Nitrogen Budget Evolution in Zhanjiang Municipal District and Its Environmental Effect during 2002-2013
    MENG Yafei,CHEN Fajin,ZENG Zhen
    2015, 35 (5):  777-784.  doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002752
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    By using the basic statistical data (natural resources, industry, agriculture, population and environmental protection) and related parameters in Zhanjiang Area during 2002-2013, the Nitrogen budget in Zhanjiang municipal district and its environmental effect were assessed. Results show that total Nitrogen input fluctuated during 35 444.03~40 466.69 t; the Nitrogen source was from fertilizer nitrogen, human and animal excretion, atmospheric settlement, farmland, crop residual body and industrial wastewater, respectively; the contribution of fertilizer Nitrogen was reducing from 2006 and tended to be steady after 2008, this phenomenon might be related to farmland soil testing formula fertilization which began in Zhanjiang in 2006. The reason that the wastewater Nitrogen input increased rapidly after 2010 was the construction of industrial base of East Island in 2009. Total Nitrogen output increased by 16.35% during 2002-2006, and began to decrease and stabilize from 2007. Nitrogen load was relatively high and significantly correlated with the proportion of cultivated land area. The surplus of Nitrogen varied widely, which was 6 865.97 t in 2002 and down to 3 998.96 t in 2013, showing a reducing trend. Surplus of Nitrogen load decreased from 47.03 to 23.48 kg/hm2•per year. Our results show that the district is facing potential Nitrogen pollution caused by imbalance of Nitrogen budget.

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