热带地理 ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (1): 154-163.doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003208
收稿日期:
2019-05-06
修回日期:
2019-10-21
出版日期:
2020-01-10
发布日期:
2020-02-24
通讯作者:
王凯
E-mail:kingviry@163.com
作者简介:
张淑文(1993—),女,河南商丘人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为区域旅游经济,(E-mail)972709584@qq.com。
基金资助:
Zhang Shuwen, Chen Qinchang, Wang Kai()
Received:
2019-05-06
Revised:
2019-10-21
Online:
2020-01-10
Published:
2020-02-24
Contact:
Wang Kai
E-mail:kingviry@163.com
摘要:
基于空间自相关分析法,综合考察2001—2017年中国30个省区(不含西藏自治区和港澳台地区)旅游经济增长的空间相关性特征,继而构建空间杜宾模型探讨区域旅游经济增长的影响因素,并着重解析旅游产业集聚对区域旅游经济增长的空间溢出效应。结果表明:中国旅游产业集聚整体呈波动上升态势,且区域间差距日渐缩小;中国旅游经济增长具有显著空间相关性,局域空间分布以“H-H”和“L-L”类型为主;区域经济发展水平、城镇化水平、产业结构和区域创新能力是推动本省区及邻近省区旅游经济增长的重要因素,旅游产业集聚显著促进本省区旅游经济增长,对邻近省区则是负向影响,而交通设施条件对本省区旅游经济增长具有负向抑制效应,对邻近省区影响不明显,地区开放程度对旅游经济增长的作用不显著。
中图分类号:
张淑文, 陈勤昌, 王凯. 旅游产业集聚与区域旅游经济增长的关系——基于2001—2017年中国省际面板数据[J]. 热带地理, 2020, 40(1): 154-163.
Zhang Shuwen, Chen Qinchang, Wang Kai. Relationship between Tourism Industry Agglomeration and Regional Tourism Economic Growth: Based on China’s Provincial Panel Data during 2001-2017[J]. Tropical Geography, 2020, 40(1): 154-163.
表2
中国旅游经济增长的Moran’s I
年份 | Moran’s I | Z | P | 年份 | Moran’s I | Z | P |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2001 | 0.387 | 3.474 | 0.000 | 2010 | 0.302 | 2.810 | 0.002 |
2002 | 0.376 | 3.391 | 0.000 | 2011 | 0.298 | 2.788 | 0.003 |
2003 | 0.380 | 3.437 | 0.000 | 2012 | 0.233 | 2.244 | 0.012 |
2004 | 0.348 | 3.170 | 0.001 | 2013 | 0.226 | 2.194 | 0.014 |
2005 | 0.339 | 3.107 | 0.001 | 2014 | 0.237 | 2.292 | 0.011 |
2006 | 0.329 | 3.019 | 0.001 | 2015 | 0.218 | 2.150 | 0.016 |
2007 | 0.309 | 2.856 | 0.002 | 2016 | 0.219 | 2.158 | 0.015 |
2008 | 0.321 | 2.962 | 0.002 | 2017 | 0.226 | 2.220 | 0.013 |
2009 | 0.319 | 2.937 | 0.002 | — | — | — | — |
表3
空间计量模型估计结果
变量 | 空间杜宾模型 | 普通固定面板 | 空间滞后模型 | 空间误差模型 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
系数 | Z | 系数 | Z | 系数 | Z | 系数 | Z | |||||
LQ | 1.015*** | 24.040 | 0.547*** | 5.110 | 1.009*** | 26.980 | 0.987*** | 26.250 | ||||
PGDP | 0.794*** | 8.494 | 1.350*** | 7.600 | 0.550*** | 7.670 | 0.523*** | 7.340 | ||||
URB | 0.483*** | 6.519 | 0.456* | 1.842 | 0.252* | 1.710 | 0.267* | 1.880 | ||||
STR | 0.263*** | 2.910 | 0.715*** | 15.720 | 0.544*** | 7.138 | 0.165* | 1.839 | ||||
TIC | -0.085* | -1.760 | -0.172*** | -4.071 | -0.011 | -0.250 | -0.050** | -2.230 | ||||
TI | 0.487*** | 6.901 | 0.259* | 1.960 | 0.177*** | 3.040 | 0.168*** | 3.000 | ||||
OPEN | 0.013 | 0.340 | 0.264*** | 4.570 | 0.058 | 0.411 | 0.010 | 0.220 | ||||
W×LQ | -0.637*** | -6.430 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
W×PGDP | 0.297** | 2.549 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
W×URB | 0.230* | 1.777 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
W×STR | 0.587*** | 4.270 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
W×TIC | 0.026 | 0.440 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
W×TI | 0.257** | 2.072 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
W×OPEN | -0.035 | -1.380 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
R2 | 0.984 9 | 0.640 1 | 0.909 9 | 0.921 0 | ||||||||
Log-likelihood | 342.954 6 | — | 406.754 6 | 409.528 6 | ||||||||
模型检验 | Wald检验空间滞后=52.470*** | Wald检验空间误差=48.566*** | ||||||||||
LR检验空间滞后=52.234*** | LR检验空间误差=42.731*** | |||||||||||
LR检验(空间固定效应)=1 763.055*** | LR检验(时间固定效应)=281.669*** | |||||||||||
Hausman test =31.168*** |
表4
空间杜宾模型的空间溢出效应分解
变量 | 直接效应 | 间接效应 | 总效应 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
系数 | t值 | 系数 | t值 | 系数 | t值 | |||
LQ | 1.019*** | 22.510 | -0.628*** | -5.690 | 0.390*** | 3.490 | ||
PGDP | 0.898*** | 9.577 | 1.233*** | 3.590 | 2.131*** | 5.747 | ||
URB | 0.477*** | 6.909 | 0.193* | 1.758 | 0.477*** | 6.909 | ||
STR | 0.263*** | 2.890 | 0.605*** | 3.930 | 0.868*** | 5.170 | ||
TIC | -0.086* | -1.950 | 0.024 | 0.420 | -0.063 | -1.260 | ||
TI | 0.476*** | 6.723 | 0.185* | 1.830 | 0.661*** | 5.399 | ||
OPEN | 0.036 | 1.360 | -0.013 | -0.350 | 0.023 | 0.510 |
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