Abstract: Cities are the main sources of carbon emissions throughout the world, which are also the major components in the implementation of carbon mitigation measures. Examining and understanding the features and drivers of carbon emissions in cities is considered a fundamental step for implementing “low carbon city” strategies and actions. Based on the apparent energy consumption data, a systematic and comprehensive city-level total carbon accounting approach was established and applied in Guangzhou City. A newly extended LMDI method based on the Kaya identity was adopted to examine the main drivers for carbon emissions increments both at the industrial sectors and the residential sectors. Economic, population and energy data were collected from the Guangdong Province Statistical Yearbook (2004-2014) and Guangzhou City Statistical Yearbook (2004-2014). The main contribution of our paper is providing an in depth analysis of energy-related carbon emissions at city level considering multiple factors in regional China. This paper also provides temporal variations in the influence factors of carbon emission over a period between 2003 and 2013. Research results show that coal consumption was still the main contributor to energy-related carbon emissions during the whole research period, while oil consumption played relatively important and positive effect on energy consumption structure optimization and carbon emissions mitigation. In addition, imported electricity played an important role in the energy consumption system in Guangzhou. Manufacturing industries and service industries were the main carbon emitting sectors in Guangzhou during the period from 2003 to 2014. Contributions of manufacturing industries for carbon emissions decreased gradually, while contributions of service industries for carbon emissions performed an increasing trend in recent years. The influences and impacts of various driving factors on industrial and residential carbon emissions are different in the three different development periods, namely, the 10th five-year plan period (2003-2005), the 11th five-year plan period (2005-2010), and the 12th five-year plan period (2010-2013). Affluence effect was the dominant positive effect in driving emissions increase, while energy intensity effect of production, economic structure effect and carbon intensity effect of production were the main contributing factors suppressing emissions growth at the industrial sector. Affluence effect of urban areas was the most dominant positive driving factor on emissions increment, while energy intensity effect of urban areas played the most important role in curbing emissions growth at the residential sector. Solving these issues effectively will be of great help for Guangzhou’s sustainable development.

Key words: energy consumption, carbon emissions, LMDI, Guangzhou City